winterwx21

Yeah it's gonna be horrible, but at least we have some warm weather to look forward to. We could be going from the horrendous wind chills Christmas weekend to 55 to 60 degree high temps New Year's weekend. It's looking like quite a torch.

A potential problem is the airmass is borderline by then, so it could be an event where you'd have to go NW with rain for the coast. A long way to go though. At least it's something to keep an eye on.

I think brooklynwx did a good job explaining why it's a low chance. But, a low chance is better than nothing to watch at all. After that we go into a warmer pattern, so it could be our last chance for quite awhile.

Somehow you didn't understand my point? By next wednesday we're starting to warm up, so there would be the threat of it not being a snow event if we get hit. The threat, not that I'm saying that would definitely be the case. At this early point there's no way to know details. Right now my guess is we won't get hit by anything as most model runs have been showing, but a long way to go. At least it's a little something to watch even though it's a longshot.

The funny thing is that even though the CMC hits us with the potential wednesday event next week, it warms us up enough that it's mostly sleet and you have to go way NW to see snow accumulations. Obviously at this range a model showing a detail like that doesn't matter very much, but it wouldn't be a surprise if something like that happened since we've really been getting screwed in this December pattern.

When some here were hyping, bluewave did a great job explaining the nuances and model biases that put us at serious risk of not getting anything out of the December pattern. No one is saying it wasn't a decent pattern, but a truly great pattern never got to a close enough range that would be worthy of a lot of hyping.

Yep we're down to maybe a 3 day cold shot after friday's cutter. Then a very warm period.

And after the cold shot for Christmas weekend and early the week of the 26th, it looks as if we'll go into an extended warm pattern. If it's not gonna snow it might as well be warm. Let it torch for New Year's.

Why? I think we have a lot of great posters here. You have to weed through some stupid stuff and long range gets overhyped sometimes, but I think the majority of the stuff that gets posted here is good. And people usually treat each other with respect here, unlike the crazy toxic environment of OT. I have a hard time seeing someone defend Forky considering the crazy/disturbing way he trolls in OT.

I think long range forecasting is pretty useful when it comes to temperature trends. Usually we can get a pretty good idea of warmer or colder patterns in the long range. The problem is storm threats. The model skill is just way too poor to have a good idea on anything beyond a week, so I think some people make a mistake in getting hopes up for winter storm threats beyond a week. It's why I never get excited until a legitimate threat gets to the more realistic day 5 range.

He's probably too busy trolling in OT to come back here and talk about his best December pattern since 2010 turning into a bust. lol

This is another example of the CMC being a much better model than GFS. I think it even picked up on next week's storm being a cutter before the Euro. The CMC has done pretty well with winter storm threats the last couple years. It's a pretty good model. Even worse than next week's storm not working out is the pattern really breaking down in late December. It looks like a big warmup going into New Year's weekend. The great pattern that we were supposed to have is likely going to be a big bust.

Yep. Still much different than Euro/CMC, but it now shows rain for next friday instead of snow.

Long range is way too difficult to predict to get excited about a potential event that's 10 days away. I don't get hopes up until a potential event gets to the more realistic day 5 range. The model skill is just too poor when you're looking out over a week.

Especially in a La Nina. You really need to see a decent December snowstorm in a La Nina winter or else the odds of having a well below normal snowfall winter are high.

But it doesn't have any support. Last 2 CMC runs were a rainstorm, and last night's Euro was a rainstorm. We'll see what the 12z Euro shows this afternoon, but the trends are not good at all.

Euro just came in warmer. Rain for most of us. You have to go well to the NW to see the snow on this run, similar to today's storm. Definitely not what we wanted to see tonight with these rainy runs (except for GFS), considering these things tend to trend NW as they get closer.

CMC a rainstorm. To me that's the bigger concern than a miss, but it's very early and we certainly have good potential here.

Euro is early with the timing. It has a low that brushes us with some snow on thursday the 22nd.

Which is good to see. We definitely want to see some OTS runs at this point. As bluewave pointed out earlier, NW trends usually happen as events get closer. If most model runs are showing us getting hit perfectly with a big snowstorm at this point, that would increase the odds of this ending up a rain event for the coast like today's storm. We definitely want to see this SE at this point and let it trend NW as it gets closer. It might not work out, but we have big potential here.

Yeah standards have changed. Now high temps in the 20s seems like bitter cold.

Yes right now the timing for the potential storm is late thursday into friday, well before Xmas eve. Then just bitter cold for Christmas weekend. High temps might not get out of the 20s.

Yeah the 12z Euro is a big warm cutter for the storm a few days before Christmas (next thursday). Rain all the way up into Canada. Of course at 9 days away, there's plenty of time for changes.

Depends on how far NW we're talking. I was talking about NW New Jersey in my post. You can see on the map that you posted that Warren and Sussex counties are mostly rain or mixed precip at hour 75. It's a few hours later that they change to snow. It's that last minute change that gives Warren and Sussex counties the several inches of snow on 0z NAM, not a front end dump. But again it's only 1 model run. Other model runs do give NW Jersey a front end dump. It's not looking good for NYC and nearby NW suburbs though. The 0z model runs tonight have all rain for these areas. Unless there are changes, it appears you'll have to go well to the NW to see snow from this event.

It was different because it was rain for most of the event, even for NW New Jersey. It comes in much warmer and NW New Jersey gets its accumulation only due to a changeover near the end. As Jm1220 said you want a front end thump from this event, and 0z NAM doesn't hava a front end thump at all. Of course it's just 1 run and could be wrong. 0z RGEM does have a nice front end thump for NW areas.