winterwx21

That's not correct. HRRR was the model that busted terribly with the last storm. Remember everyone here kept commenting that HRRR was the coldest and showed NYC getting 2 inches of snow. NAM was warmest and said no snow for NYC and only for well north of NYC. Most of the area ended up getting no snow accumulation. NAM did best with the last storm and HRRR was the worst.

It's light rain here. Looks as if HRRR is going to bust with the colder solution. Probably have to go north of NYC to see accumulating snow like NAM and RGEM have been showing.

It's long range for NAM, but NAM does give Central NJ several inches of snow wednesday. Better than what other models show. We need the confluence to trend a little weaker so the snow doesn't fall apart as it comes in. GFS, GGEM and EURO have been showing it weakening to light snow due to the confluence and give us only around 1 inch. Hopefully the better looking 12z NAM will be the start of a better trend for wednesday. For tonight HRRR is colder and gets 1 to 2 inches of snow down to NYC. NAM however says you have to go north of NYC to see accumulating snow. Continues to be a tough call.

It looks as if the snow has trouble coming in due to dry air. Looks like a good snow shield approaching but then it weakens to light snow as it bumps up against the high pressure and dry air. 0z GFS and GGEM continue to give our area around 1 inch of snow wednesday afternoon before it mixes at night.

Most of the 12z model runs were disappointing, showing only around 1 inch of snow wednesday. The 0z runs are just starting to come out, so we'll see shortly if they beef up wednesday's storm and make it a little colder.

What about other winters though? I've noticed for years you downplay every snow threat. It has worked well for you this winter, but other recent winters when we had way above normal snowfall you were wrong most of the time. The way you post makes it seem as if you hate snow, yet your name is snowman. You have every right to like whatever type of weather you like, but I'm just curious ...... do you like snow or not? If you don't then maybe you should change your name to summerMan or something like that lol.

Yeah not much of a period of freezing rain here with how quickly the temps are rising. I'm up to 32.5

Depends on how much we get. If we get a solid 4 inches of snow with some ice on top of that, I don't think the rain would be able to wash it all away unless it gets really warm. This isn't an event where temps are supposed to spike to the 50s after it changes to rain. What's on the ground will probably become very heavy and tough to shovel due to the higher water content.

RGEM however shifted north and gets an inch to inch and a half up to our area. Still a very close call for wave 1. Could just be a dusting, but just a small shift north and it could be 2 inches.

You're welcome. One of my favorite things to look at during winter.

http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html It's just like watching the futurecast (precip types, timing and movement) that you see on tv weathercasts, only it's the Canadian models instead. For the first 48 hours it shows the RGEM, and then at hour 49 it switches to the GGEM and goes out to day 5. You just have to hit animate. Very good tool.

Yeah the GGEM gives a long period of sleet after the 3 to 4 inches of snow. I just watched the color loop and it gives our area sleet for about 7 hours, before the change to rain.

And people overestimate snow getting washed away too. Yeah an inch or two will get washed away, but it's rare for 5 or 6 inches to get completely washed away unless it's VERY warm during the rain. Usually the snow absorbs a lot of the water and becomes very heavy.

Even with that though, we would have one nice highlight if we can get a 3 to 6 inch snowfall before the change to sleet and rain with tuesday's storm. GGEM and UKMET look pretty good.

Is anyone watching the first wave for sunday night into monday morning? 0z NAM and GGEM give southern NJ some decent snow accumulations. I wouldn't ignore this first wave, even though the tuesday storm has bigger potential. We just need a little trend north.

Even with GFS' cutter solution tonight, it still showed a 1 to 3 inch snow before the change to rain. GGEM showed 3 to 5 inches. I think too many people are giving up too early on this one. Even if it isn't an all out snowstorm, it could be a front end dump type of storm.

So much for the inch or so of snow that we were supposed to get here in northern Middlesex. Just some wet flakes. This disappointing winter continues.

No I was talking the regular NAM. I looked at both snowmaps of 18z NAM on Pivotalweather. The 10:1 ratio map gave our area 1.5 to 2 inches and the Kuchera ratio gave us about 1 inch.

Not quite nada. 18z NAM gave our area about 1 inch of snow.

That's true, but most aren't looking at it that way because that snowstorm was a freak event in mid November. We've had pretty much no snow at all during met winter and it's almost February. Let's hope we can at least pull out a little 1 to 2 inch snow tuesday night.

The arctic blast for late next week is really starting to look intense. It could be almost as cold as the one we just had, but longer lasting. Such an irritating pattern to get a big rainstorm in between brutal arctic blasts. I hope the calls for a snowy February pan out.

The models are showing it getting very cold starting wednesday next week. Several days in a row with high temps only in the 20s. Let's hope we can get some snow out of that cold pattern. Right now it looks cold/dry but it's longer range, so hopefully the models will pick up on something.

Yes the snowmap on Pivotalweather shows only about 3 inches for the city.

And the 12z GGEM does still manage to give most of the area a 4 to 6 inch snowfall.

December did deliver already with the advertised great pattern. We just got unlucky. North Carolina saw a historic snowstorm. It takes a great pattern/setup for something like that to happen in December. We just got very unlucky that the confluence was too strong to let it come up the coast. Maybe the last week of the month will deliver for us.