winterwx21

0z NAM just came in very warm. You have to go to extreme NW Jersey to see snow on this run. NW Jersey gets its accumulation at the end of the event with the rain changing over to snow on this run. Looks similar to 12z Euro with the warm solution.

The 12z Euro says no to that. It is pretty warm and even extreme NW Jersey doesn't get much snow on this run.

Not surprisingly the GFS brought the storm back, but it's warm for the coast. Have to go well to the northwest to see snow. 12z GGEM is also a big rainstorm. Obviously plenty of time for this to trend colder.

I think the extreme south solution for the late week storm that the last 2 GFS runs are showing is unlikely, but we can't rule it out. Suppression is at least a slight possibility if the blocking is too strong. It's good that it looks likely that we're gonna have an extended cold pattern in here for mid to late December, and obviously it gives us a decent possibility of scoring at some point. But we do have the possibility of it just being a cold/dry pattern. Hopefully that won't be the case, but it's a slight concern with the level of blocking.

GFS just shows that there's a big range of possibilities. Obviously model skill still isn't very good at 6 days out. We can have anything from the storm being suppressed too far to the south, to it being too tucked in and mostly rain. Hopefully a middle ground solution will happen. At least we have something interesting to track for the first time this season.

Not surprisingly the 12zCMC backed down on sunday's event. Now keeps most of the accumulating snow north of NYC like the other models.

Yeah even though December is considered meteorological winter while March is not, March has been a much better snow month than December for us in the last 10 years. We've had major March snow in 5 out of the last 10 winters.

Yeah a nice heavy downpour as this line is moving through. Some wind too. It's almost like a summer squall line.

12z Euro a big warm cutter for next sunday into monday. No surprise as most of the evidence is pointing to that being a cutter. As others have said, we do need to keep an eye on the smaller system before that for friday into saturday. Temps look borderline, and this 12z Euro run has us near the rain/snow line. Hopefully we can get a little more cold air to press down, but I wouldn't be too optimistic right now considering we have warm temps leading into that potential event.

And of course GFS is back to showing a warmer cutter on the 0z run, as the model continues its flip flops.

As Allsnow said a few days ago, I need to see Bluewave on board to get excited. That guy really knows what he's talking about. Tremendously great poster.

Yeah for a long time cold air was progged to come in next thursday, but that's not happening. Now the whole week is going to be mild, and overall mid December isn't looking good. Wasn't long ago that mets here were saying best December pattern since 2010. Now we're hoping for a better pattern late in the month, which is very long range so who knows. Long range is too difficult to predict to get excited when it looks good a couple weeks down the road.

GFS has a cutter on the 12th and then warms it up after that going into mid December. Probably wrong but you never know. Long range is very difficult to predict. So often we look 2 weeks down the road and see a potential pattern, but it ends up being much different when it gets closer. That's why I don't get too excited when good patterns are advertised. Good pattens don't always produce too. Our area averages less than 30 inches of snow per winter for a reason. I'll get excited when we have a legitimate winter storm threat at the day 5 range. At least it looks likely that we have cold air coming in one week from today, and there should be a good amount of cold air available in December. That will at least give us a decent chance of scoring sometime this month, but it's far from a guarantee.

Had a few gusts 45 to 50mph as that little squall line came through. Nice event with the rain and wind.

Back edge of the steady rain already passed. This was a quick mover. Only a third of an inch here. Might add a little more with some scattered showers.

Yeah so many times we've seen great looking patterns in the long range, only to see them fall apart as it got closer. Looks great right now, but we have to be a little skeptical at this range. Hopefully this look will hold.

I'm with you. I love the warm weather in November, but once we get into December I go into winter mode and will be rooting for snow.

It's 58 degrees here. Loving all these warm late November days! Great being able to run outside without having to be bundled up this late in the season.

57 here. Another spectacular late November day.

Sunday's rain event continues to look less and less impressive. Probably a quarter to half inch. Nice mild weather early to mid next week ... likely mid to upper 50s. Happy Thanksgiving! I hope everyone here has a great one.

I agree. This weather is perfect for late November. I'm going outside for a run right now, and it's just warm enough that I can do it without a sweatshirt on. Love it.

57 degrees here. Beautiful day.

The models are showing lower rain amounts now too. 12z GFS less than a quarter inch, and Euro a quarter to half inch for most.

They're speeding it up too. GFS and GGEM now show most of the rain saturday night rather than during the day sunday. Could be a decent 1 inch rainfall.

Yeah the snow showers missed us just slightly to the south. Just some flurries here.