winterwx21
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Everything posted by winterwx21
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Yeah it's very borderline cold air. It might've been just barely cold enough to get some frozen on saturday, especially to the northwest of NYC. But as I mentioned in my post this afternoon when talking about the UKMET model (and you pointed out in your post) bringing the storm far enough north to give us precip, the problem is the little bit of cold air we had is gone by the time the storm finally makes it up to us. So we're looking at rain if it does make it up here sunday into monday. In fact I see that the new run of the CMC tonight does bring the storm north, and some rain moves in late in the afternoon sunday. Unfortunately with the cold air gone by then, it would be rain even well to the northwest of NYC. We needed a storm to happen for us on saturday to have any slim hope, but there's no hope with it holding off until late sunday like the models are showing. This horrendous winter continues. It appears that we're gonna be waiting a long time to have a winter storm threat. Maybe something will happen end of February or March.
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The UKMET brings the storm north too, but is more realistic with rain except for way to the northwest. There just isn't much cold air. The GFS is a horrific crazy model that should be ignored.
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A tease of rain. We don't have cold enough air in place for the weekend.
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You have to go WAY to the northwest to see snow on the Ukie. If the storm holds off until late sunday like the UKMET is showing, it would be rain because what little cold air we had is gone by that point.
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It's not as if we've had many legitimate winter storm threats get to a realistic range and then the more reliable models failed us. There have been hardly any realistic threats this winter. We just had a record warm January and now February is shaping up as another very warm month. Hard to get snow that way. It's more that we've just been in a very warm/unfavorable pattern than the models being horrible. GFS/NAM are terrible models that have teased us a few times, but the more reliable models have done a decent job. Follow the CMC. It never had anything for us next weekend and it will likely be right again.
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GFS is a horrendous model. CMC often leads the way with our winter storm threats. Hard to get interested unless CMC is showing something for us.
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And the Euro just came in with nothing for us saturday. It just has some rain missing us well to the south friday night into saturday. It looks like the CMC now. I know Walt has said many times that it's important to have CMC on board to be optimistic about a potential winter event. That model has been very good in the last few years, and I think it's likely leading the way again for saturday. Probably nothing for us, but we'll keep an eye on it just in case.
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50 degrees here. What a recovery, from a high temp of 26 yesterday to 50 today.
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Yep. And think about what a thread the needle it would be if next weekend somehow works out. This week is going to a blowtorch, and the following week is going to be a blowtorch. It would take incredibly great luck to get a snow event in between 2 extremely warm weeks, during a minor very brief cooldown. Our very brief cooldown next weekend will have high temps in the 40s, not impressive at all. It would take a storm taking a perfect track and a strong enough storm to pull in cold air to get accumulating snow near the coast. Extremely unlikely.
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Very sad that on February 2nd we have absolutely nothing to track, even in the long range. Worst winter ever. Well all we can do is make the best of it. I will take advantage of the warm weather next week with some outdoor activities. It'll be good hiking weather.
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Yeah it was nice to finally see a little white on the ground. I had a 0.2" coating here. For several days I thought this was NYC's best chance to finally end the snowless streak, so I'm glad it worked out. Very sad though that this was our best event of the winter so far, and it appears that we won't have another chance for a long time. Quite a blowtorch pattern coming after the brief arctic shot. We have a chance of going the whole winter without an inch of snow, but we'll see if we can get something in late February or March.
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After all the rain this winter, it's going to be a kick in the teeth if it misses to the south when we're finally cold enough for accumulating snow. HRRR is very far south now, but we can hope that RGEM is right about our area getting into the snow.
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I see 0z RGEM still has half inch to 1 inch snow for northern NJ. But the other models shifting south is concerning. Well we're very close to the event now, so we'll soon see what happens.
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HRRR shifting way south might've been onto something. NAM just came in south. Not as far south as HRRR but the 1 inch snows are for central-southern NJ with nothing for northern NJ. We might get screwed in our 1 chance to finally get a little accumulating snow this winter.
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Same here. Obviously it won't stick with temps in the high 30s, but some decent sized flakes coming down right now. Maybe tonight we'll finally pick up a little accumulation. Minor event but we certainly could get a half inch.
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I agree that very late February is too far out to have a good idea, but I think we can say with confidence that the 2nd and 3rd weeks of February are gonna be an all-out blowtorch. Also amazing how fast of a turnaround we're gonna have with the arctic shot. It's gonna go from high temps in the 20s on saturday to near 50 on sunday. You don't see that very often.
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I haven't even had a quarter inch coating of snow this winter. Just one time that the ground barely got dusted. So even seeing a half inch of snow on the ground would make me happy at this point, lol. That's how sad this winter is.
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I think of a coating as the ground being whitened by a quarter to half inch of snow. That's what I mean when I say a coating.
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The 12z models seem to be focusing on eastern Long Island. Maybe an inch or two out there, but everywhere has a decent shot at a coating. Good chance the snowless streak finally ends tonight.
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I was deer hunting yesterday, and had lots of bugs flying around my face when I was up in the tree stand. Crazy stuff for the end of January.
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Yeah I see even 12z GFS now develops a little band of snow that drops a little half inch coating across northern NJ wednesday morning. Very minor, but it's looking more likely that we'll get a little something to finally end NYC's no measurable snow streak.
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12z RGEM backed down somewhat, but it does still give the area a coating to 1 inch. You mentioned the HRRR and it does give us a coating of snow tuesday night as well. Not looking great, but the fact that the HRRR is seeing a little snow for us keeps this alive even though the RGEM backed down somewhat on the 12z run. Sad that this potential minor event is looking like our only chance. The pattern for February looks terrible after the brief arctic shot. If we don't get an inch wednesday morning, there is going to be the real threat of getting to late February without even an inch of snow. Worst winter ever.
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What a way to spend a sunday evening, giving a bunch of posts weenies because he hates that other people enjoy watching football. Once he actually said that pro sports should be banned, lol.
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I agree. Not only should they have let that call go because a trip to the Super Bowl was on the line, but some other terrible calls against the Bengals. A shame when bad officiating has such an impact on the outcome. Sometimes officials just let players play and don't throw many flags in huge games. Too bad that wasn't the case tonight.
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Yeah for all of the other events this month, NYC had no chance because it was too warm. At least it feels as if we have a chance with this one because it will be cold enough. It just a matter of getting a little precip in here. I haven't even seen a dusting of snow this winter, so seeing an inch or two on the ground would be a nice change. I'm rooting for it. Hopefully RGEM will score another victory.
