winterwx21

Home field advantage is big and you'd have to give the Eagles the advantage at QB with Hurts, but I agree with LibertyBell that the 49ers have the better all around team. This is a tough one. I'll probably pick the Niners since I have nothing to lose going for the upset since I already won the Pick em contest in the sports forum.

12z CMC warms us up for another rainstorm the end of next week, but yeah it is good to see some other model runs actually missing us to the south. I'm not that optimistic, but at least we can say we have a period of better potential next week. Anything is possible from a snowstorm to a miss to the south to another cutter, but it looks like at least a slightly better shot than what we've had. Hopefully something will work out next week, since there are strong signs that we'll go into another warm pattern after that. Would be horrible to go the whole winter without 1 decent snow event, so keeping my fingers crossed for next week.

Brock Purdy has been impressive though. So much poise for a young kid. He has played great and the Niners have won 8 in a row with him starting. I thought losing Garoppolo would hurt them, but that hasn't been the case. I know I'm picking the Bengals, but I'm still undecided on the Eagles-Niners game. That's a very tough one to predict. Both should be great games ... really looking forward to Sunday.

That seems about right. Most models had northwest NJ getting an inch or two of snow.

Yeah RGEM was slightly too warm, but still did much better than NAM.

Yeah it'll be our coldest weather in awhile, but probably also just a transient cold shot.

Most likely another cutter next week, in this endless pattern of cutters. The most hopeless winter ever.

Nice, I'm glad you're at least getting to see a brief coating.

I guess you're a touch colder since you're a few miles north of me. Here all the snow is melting on contact.

Big flakes coming down. Temp has dropped to 35, but the ground is just too warm for any accumulation. Frustrating, but of course this was expected. A little non accumulating snow and then a lot of rain for our area.

Rain/snow mix here. 39 degrees.

CMC looks pretty warm for that event, but it's a week away so we'll keep an eye on it. At least it's a shot as you said.

What a shock, lol. There might be an inch or two of snow up in Sussex County where Walt is.

UKMET and HRRR also say you have to go to northwest NJ to see a little snow accumulation. Yep it's looking very likely that NYC will break the record.

It's gotten to the point that when we're at hour 84 we should just ignore the NAM and trust the RGEM. It's amazing how much more accurate RGEM is than NAM at that range. NAM doesn't seem to wake up until you get inside 48 hours.

Yeah I don't give the NAM any weight anymore. Trusting the RGEM is the way to go. It's amazing how superior RGEM is to NAM.

There's your predictable cave by the NAM. No snow for NYC on the 18z run. All you can do is laugh.

But you've said yourself that good patterns often don't produce. Also it wasn't long ago that you said the pattern looked good for late January, right after wednesday's cutter. Now it's pushed out to February. As others have said, we've been kicking the can all winter. I think when you're getting to the end of January without even an inch of snow, it makes sense to talk futility.

Yep. CMC also has a big cutter in early February, and even GFS now shows some warm air in the long range in early February. I don't think it's ever going to change this winter ... probably heading towards our worst ever.

RGEM wins as usual. That's a terrific model.

Yeah last night's Euro run showed us snowing at 18z Wednesday, while today's run shows us getting a mix at 18z.

It's a little bit of both. A little warmer and best forcing goes north. Bottom line is it went from showing a few inches for the NYC last night to almost nothing today. I'm sure NAM will start to back down soon too.

I would say if Burrow wins the Super Bowl this season (which I now believe will happen), we can elevate him to the best QB in the NFL. Or at least into a tie with Mahomes for the best QB in the NFL.

And if a compromise between those models happens (kind of what like GFS is showing), we'll probably get no accumulation. The snow would have to come in like a wall and be heavy to get accumulations in this situation. Light to moderate snow falling with temps above freezing and a warm ground won't cut it. If that happens, NYC's record will probably be broken.

Starting to see some flakes mixing in with the rain now. Who cares about non accumulating wet snow though.