winterwx21
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Everything posted by winterwx21
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Yeah I'm not counting on getting a few inches of snow right now just because the Euro looks good. Other models don't look as good, and it's hard for me to be very optimistic about an event when we don't have much cold air in place before the storm. This could easily end up being more sleet too. But at least we can say the Euro keeps hope alive and we have a chance.
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UKMET came in warmer again. Hardly anything for NYC now. It shows a very nice event for northwest NJ.
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RGEM took away the widespread half inch for today. Other models and radar don't look very good either. Not looking good for our area now today ... we'll be lucky to see a light dusting.
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Euro did improve slightly for later today. It gives most of the area a half inch now. Looks like RGEM.
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The 10:1 maps are ridiculously inflated for this event. Can't take them seriously at all. This Euro run is showing a lot of sleet, which would really cut down totals.
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UKMET cut way back on the snow for the NYC area. Still a little snow, but not even half of what it had at 12z and it now says you have to go northwest to get significant amounts.
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RGEM now says we get a solid half inch tomorrow. How sad is it that I'm excited about that? lol
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RGEM has us right near the edge. Looks like it's showing a lot of sleet. NAM of course it a terrible model, and especially horrible in the long range. But of course we take a peek anyway. It's starting out very warm for this event. Rain even way to the northwest.
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18z RGEM pretty nice for extreme southern NJ too. It gives 1 to 2 inches down there, but it does get a little light snow up here with a quarter to half inch coating.
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Yep. Yesterday I talked about the possibility of our area being the screwzone in the middle. There's been a signal on the models for awhile that one batch of precip misses to the north while another batch misses to the south. But I've been hoping for changes since we finally have cold air in place. Right now it isn't looking great.
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I've been much more interested in tomorrow because it's the first time all winter that we've had air that's plenty cold for accumulating snow. Monday is still a huge question mark for that, with the borderline airmass. It would be frustrating if it misses south and southern NJ gets a decent snow tomorrow when we finally have cold air in place.
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Yeah it shifted well south. It gives 2 to 3 inches for southern NJ and nothing for us, lol. That would be fitting for this miserable winter.
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Of course a Kuchera map would show less than this map, but at least the Euro keeps hope alive that we can see a little snow-sleet accumulation. I still don't like the setup and lean towards no accumulation, but it's a close call and we have a chance to see a little something.
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Yeah I just saw that Euro is still showing a quarter to half inch coating tomorrow. Right now we have to assume that NAM is wrong with the 1 to 2 inches, and expect just a coating. But you never know for sure ... we can hope that NAM is onto something and will be correct for a change.
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Yeah as we talked about yesterday, UKMET has become a crazy model. Very often it's wildly on its own and ends up being dead wrong.
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Yeah it's improving, but still nothing like the NAM. I need to see the RGEM come aboard to believe we're going to see a 1 to 2 inch snow event like the NAM has. Hopefully RGEM will continue to come north and beef up the precip later today. This has potential to be our best event of the season, which is really sad of course. I don't think we're gonna see any snow from the early next week storm, so I'm hoping we can at least pull off a nice little half inch to 1 inch snow event tomorrow.
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Euro now gets 1 inch snow up into southern NJ. Other models do as well. The batch of precip that models had missing us way to the south is trending north. Hopefully during friday the models will continue to bump north to get our area into the 1 inch snows. A minor event, but I would gladly take a cold wintry day with light accumulating snow saturday. We haven't had a day like that all winter.
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This NAM run actually gets 1 to 2 inches up into central New Jersey. It still looks possible that we'll see a light snow event saturday. We need a little bump north.
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NAM just came in better for saturday. It gives parts of the area a half inch to inch of snow. As SnowGoose said, we'll watch to see if the models increase the overrunning precip a little as it gets closer.
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I noticed the last few years there were quite a few winter storm threats in which the UKMET looked much different than the other models, and it usually ended up being wrong. I remember it being better in the past, but it seems that lately it has been a crazy model.
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And keep in mind that's a total snowfall map, not a 24 hour one. So some the accumulation you see on that map is actually the snow that Euro is showing saturday. This run is showing almost nothing for NYC for next week's storm.
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Euro does give us a coating saturday. As Snowgoose said, we probably have a better chance of seeing a little snow on the ground saturday than we do for next week's storm. At least we have cold air saturday if we can get a little moisture in here. Hopefully the models will beef that up a little as it gets closer. Next week's storm will probably end up as rain like all our other borderline events this winter. Hard to be optimistic about these storms that don't have decent cold air in place.
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A little frustrating that the models have one batch of precip missing us to the north saturday and another batch missing to the south. We could be the screw zone in the middle with just flurries here. Not that it would be anything more than a minor event, but it would be nice to take advantage of the rare cold air saturday and have a wintry day with a little accumulating snow. Not looking good right now, but as you said there's still a chance. Enough time for it to trend back to being a half inch to 1 inch light snow event for us.
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Don't forget to use Kuchera and not include the small amount of snow it's showing for saturday. This CMC run is showing maybe an inch or two of snow for Long Island and slightly north of NYC. It's mainly sleet.
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12z CMC is sleet changing to rain for our area.
