winterwx21

Yeah a nice heavy downpour as this line is moving through. Some wind too. It's almost like a summer squall line.

12z Euro a big warm cutter for next sunday into monday. No surprise as most of the evidence is pointing to that being a cutter. As others have said, we do need to keep an eye on the smaller system before that for friday into saturday. Temps look borderline, and this 12z Euro run has us near the rain/snow line. Hopefully we can get a little more cold air to press down, but I wouldn't be too optimistic right now considering we have warm temps leading into that potential event.

And of course GFS is back to showing a warmer cutter on the 0z run, as the model continues its flip flops.

As Allsnow said a few days ago, I need to see Bluewave on board to get excited. That guy really knows what he's talking about. Tremendously great poster.

Yeah for a long time cold air was progged to come in next thursday, but that's not happening. Now the whole week is going to be mild, and overall mid December isn't looking good. Wasn't long ago that mets here were saying best December pattern since 2010. Now we're hoping for a better pattern late in the month, which is very long range so who knows. Long range is too difficult to predict to get excited when it looks good a couple weeks down the road.

GFS has a cutter on the 12th and then warms it up after that going into mid December. Probably wrong but you never know. Long range is very difficult to predict. So often we look 2 weeks down the road and see a potential pattern, but it ends up being much different when it gets closer. That's why I don't get too excited when good patterns are advertised. Good pattens don't always produce too. Our area averages less than 30 inches of snow per winter for a reason. I'll get excited when we have a legitimate winter storm threat at the day 5 range. At least it looks likely that we have cold air coming in one week from today, and there should be a good amount of cold air available in December. That will at least give us a decent chance of scoring sometime this month, but it's far from a guarantee.

Had a few gusts 45 to 50mph as that little squall line came through. Nice event with the rain and wind.

Back edge of the steady rain already passed. This was a quick mover. Only a third of an inch here. Might add a little more with some scattered showers.

Yeah so many times we've seen great looking patterns in the long range, only to see them fall apart as it got closer. Looks great right now, but we have to be a little skeptical at this range. Hopefully this look will hold.

I'm with you. I love the warm weather in November, but once we get into December I go into winter mode and will be rooting for snow.

It's 58 degrees here. Loving all these warm late November days! Great being able to run outside without having to be bundled up this late in the season.

57 here. Another spectacular late November day.

Sunday's rain event continues to look less and less impressive. Probably a quarter to half inch. Nice mild weather early to mid next week ... likely mid to upper 50s. Happy Thanksgiving! I hope everyone here has a great one.

I agree. This weather is perfect for late November. I'm going outside for a run right now, and it's just warm enough that I can do it without a sweatshirt on. Love it.

57 degrees here. Beautiful day.

The models are showing lower rain amounts now too. 12z GFS less than a quarter inch, and Euro a quarter to half inch for most.

They're speeding it up too. GFS and GGEM now show most of the rain saturday night rather than during the day sunday. Could be a decent 1 inch rainfall.

Yeah the snow showers missed us just slightly to the south. Just some flurries here.

Like last night's Euro, 12z GFS and GGEM are showing rain for next friday. GFS so warm that the rain goes well up into Canada. A long way to go and this certainly has some potential, but right now rain is looking more likely.

Low temp of 27 here. The plants in the vegetable garden finally got finished off. I enjoyed the extended growing season, but it was time. The ragweed pollen was still hanging in there at a low level, so I'm glad we finally got the freeze to end it.

It's 71 degrees here right now. Another spectacular day. This has been the most beautiful first 12 days of November that I can ever remember. So many beautiful days with temps in the 70s. As you said, it's going to be a shock to the system with the much colder temps next week.

Yep, but there's also some heavier downpours mixed in there too. Maybe we can get an inch of rain out of this.

NAM and Euro aren't showing as much as GFS, but still a decent amount of rain. Like I said a half inch to inch looks like a good forecast right now. Also right now the models are showing most of our rain coming from the first batch friday afternoon. They're not really showing a line of strong storms with the front friday night overnight anymore. Overall looking like a boring event, but at least a moderate amount of rain.

Yeah it's not looking very impressive. We still could get a decent rain out of this ... perhaps a half inch to inch. But nothing to write home about. The big amounts will be way to the west.

The timing of this is friday night overnight though. So if we do get any strong t-storms out of it, it will likely be when we're sleeping. This west trend also means we probably won't get big rains. Right now it doesn't appear that this is much to look forward to.