winterwx21

I have 1 inch of snow here in Piscataway, but now it's down to very light snow and radar doesn't look very good. I know Snowgoose brought up the point of the snow drying up quickly after the changeover due to the northwest flow, and it looks as if that is the case. Just gonna be some light snow during the afternoon to add less than a half inch more. Obviously a few miles makes a difference with this too since you had more sleet while I was snow here. I drove to Edison to La Bon Bakery to get my saturday dessert, and there it was mostly sleet. Then driving home it was back to snow as I hit South Plainfield and Piscataway. I was just on the right side to get an inch of snow, so I can't complain. Beautiful here with the inch of wet snow.

Moderate snow here. Already a solid coating. Down to 33 and it's even starting to dust the pavement.

14z run of HRRR was significantly improved over the 13z run. Now gets a couple inches into NYC. Makes more sense given the early changeover.

Heavy snow here with a little sleet mixed in. I see the 14z run of the HRRR increased amounts a little. Back to showing 3 inches for my area, which makes sense given the earlier changeover.

0z RGEM was a little better though. The 0z run gives my area (just slightly west of NYC) close to 3 inches. Better than the 1 inch that the 18z run had. A little more snow for NYC too ... looks like 1 to 2 inches compared to barely an inch on the 18z run. At least it's slightly better.

NYC is a tough call since it's gonna be near the edge of the more significant snow. Euro and HRRR are saying NYC gets several inches, but the latest NAM and previous RGEM runs say only about an inch. The new RGEM comes out shortly, so we'll see if it increases amounts.

Don't know if I would say RGEM has nothing. It has less than other models, but it does get about 1 inch to NYC. I have a feeling it will increase the amounts on the next couple runs. I love the RGEM but there are too many other models showing that this has a good chance of giving NYC at least a couple inches. I'm less concerned about the midday issue this time too because true arctic air will be rushing in.

WWAs definitely need to be expanded way to the southeast. With arctic air pouring in, roads will become slippery. Much different from the last event where it was a struggle to accumulate even on colder surfaces. I think I'd go with a 1 to 3 inch forecast for my area, but we can hope models like Euro and HRRR are correct about getting a little more than that.

It's 61 degrees here right now. As usual temps went a few degrees above forecast. Absolutely beautiful outside, but I'm also looking forward to the snow tomorrow.

And remember last night I mentioned that the RGEM came in warmer and showed a rain/snow mix for north-central NJ and NYC with little to no accumulation. It was correct about having to go northwest to see much accumulation. NAM on the other hand was way off with the idea of significant snow accumulations for this area. Yet again the RGEM outperformed the NAM. We saw that several times this winter. It is really a much better model than NAM. And the CMC was the first model to pick up on this storm hitting us several days ago. These Canadian models have been excellent this winter. I trust the CMC even more than the Euro these days for longer range threats, and then the RGEM does a good job with the details when you get close to the event.

Had a rain/sleet combo for awhile, but now it switched over to heavy wet snow with huge flakes. Starting to dust the ground a little now.

Snow finally starting to mix in. Rain/snow mix.

RGEM just came in much warmer than NAM and HRRR. It has quite a bit of rain and rain/snow mix for NYC, and you'd have to go northwest to see accumulations on this run. Probably underdone like NAM is overdone, but can't rule out this possibility either. March storms are unpredictable and it will be interesting to see what happens tomorrow.

Yep but I think most of us agree that NAM is very likely overdone. Can't completely rule out the possibility of a 4 to 6 inch snowfall like 0z NAM is showing, but the chance of that happening is very slim. 0z HRRR looks much more reasonable. I would go with a coating to 2 inches on colder surfaces for most of the area, with some 3 to 4 inch amounts in northern NJ. Which is pretty much what 0z HRRR Kuchera is showing. Of course the Kuchera maps need to be used in this case because they take into account the fact that snow ratios will be much worse than 10:1.

That was quite awhile ago (back in February) that March was looking colder. We know long range is not very accurate. For the last week we've known that March is going to be a mild month. But of course that doesn't mean we can't sneak in a snow event. Hopefully that will happen on wednesday.

18z RGEM really has the snow coming down heavily for awhile wednesday. Obviously gonna need those heavy rates to overcome the borderline temps. RGEM would give us a few inches on colder surfaces.

Although the HRRR absolutely nailed the February snow event 48 hours in advance. We can certainly hope for a repeat.

It could end up being a repeat of the February snow event where it didn't accumulate much on pavement but we got a few inches on grass and car tops. That was a beautiful wintry scene too, so I would be happy if we can pull that off again. This is probably our last chance of snow with the March pattern looking warm, so I'm rooting for this to happen. Hopefully it will be more than just white rain. The latest model runs are encouraging but of course we'll get a much better idea tomorrow.

I know the UKMET has been terrible this winter, but now it is showing several inches of snow too. Seems as if most models are jumping aboard now. Will see if Euro does at 1pm too.

I mentioned on friday night that this had my attention because GGEM was showing it, and of course Walt has been all over it. But many people are going to be surprised if this happens because very have been talking about it. March of course is a crazy month where snowstorms can sneak up on you at the last minute, although GGEM would certainly deserve a lot of credit for advertising this pretty early. Have to take it seriously now that NAM is showing it too. Obviously it would be difficult to accumulate on pavement after warm temps and with borderline temps during the storm, but it certainly could end up being like the February snow event where we got a few inches on colder surfaces.

NAM is giving southern NJ a few inches of snow wednesday, but it doesn't quite make it up here. GGEM does get it up here, but it's warmer now so you have to go northwest to see most of the snow accumulations. Looks as if wednesday is still worth keeping an eye on. It made it to 69 here today. Looking for mid 70s tomorrow.

GGEM still showing a snow event wednesday. Since this is the only model showing it, we'd have to say there's only a very slight chance of it happening. But bluewave has talked about how much better GGEM has performed since the upgrade. It has become a good model, so we can't completely discount this possibility. We have to keep an eye on wednesday.

It's 40 degrees here right now. So much for today being a very cold day. I know it's still a little below normal, but a far cry from the very cold blast that was advertised for today. For days the forecast said it would struggle to get to freezing today, but the sun is much stronger this time of year. Makes it much more difficult to have a very cold afternoon. You can always count on the high temp going well above forecast anytime the sun is out.

There's no sign of cold for the first half of the month, unless you want to consider a couple days (this coming thursday and friday) in the low-mid 40s cold. We warm up to 60 next weekend. This is looking like a mild month unless we have a dramatic turnaround in the 2nd half of the month.

The temp has spiked to 46 here now. As usual temps going higher than forecast when the sun comes out.