winterwx21
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Everything posted by winterwx21
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I agree with you. Considering the magnitude of the arctic air in place over the weekend, I'd be surprised if there isn't a decent little front end thump for the NYC area. I expect models to adjust a little colder with the storm as we get closer, even with a bad track. But of course it would change to rain and most of the snow would get washed away.
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Yeah usually a snowless December during a La Nina means a terrible winter ahead, but it's not a typical La Nina pattern this year. Nice looking pattern ahead.
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Not bad that the models have a storm missing us to the south that's 6 days away. North trend happens often. We have a decent chance.
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Ended up with 5.5" here. Very nice storm.
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12z RGEM is 3 to 4 inches for most, but has a nice 6 inch band for the coastal counties of NJ.
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Mount Holly going with a 2 to 4 forecast. Looks reasonable. Snow ratios being a little better than 10:1 helps, so I might lean more towards the 4 than the 2.
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I know long range HRRR should be taken with a grain of salt, but for the last event that missed us to the south we never had HRRR on our side. It kept showing the accumulations staying to our south. Hopefully the fact that 12z HRRR is showing significant snow for our area is a good sign.
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Both 12z GGEM and 12z Euro would be a nice moderate snow event for our area. With the concern of the progressive pattern, hopefully this won't keep trending south and end up being a miss for us.
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RGEM did a good job. It consistently showed the significant snow staying just to our south, but wasn't ridiculously far south early on like the NAM was. I've always found RGEM to be a very good model.
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Nice all snow event thursday night into friday morning on the 12z GGEM run that just came out. Let's hope that's correct.
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60 degrees here right now. I just went for a run outside with a t-shirt on, and it's possible I could be shoveling snow tomorrow. A Colorado-like weather swing that's becoming much more common for our area.
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I'd gladly take the few inches that Euro is showing for our area, even though it would be a little frustrating that the really big amounts miss us to the south. Hopefully the NAM is incorrect about having the accumulations much more to the south.
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If you go with the NAM we get nothing at all. Not even a coating to an inch. But maybe something like what 12z RGEM is showing will happen, with our area on the northern fringe and getting brushed by a coating to an inch. Hard to be optimistic about more than that right now. When you have only 1 major model on your side, you certainly don't want it to be GFS. But stranger things have happened, so we still have a slight chance.
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12z Euro gets a little accumulating snow up to Cape May County NJ. Close to an inch for the southern part of the county. Looks like a longshot for us, but it's close enough that we still have to keep a close eye on it. We have a slight chance.
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We had about 40 last winter.
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64 degrees here right now.
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The period from this saturday to the following saturday is gonna be insane. High temps in the 50s and 60s pretty much every day, except for maybe upper 40s on sunday. A few days (this saturday and next thursday and friday) with temps WELL up into the 60s likely too. One of the warmest 1 week periods in mid December history.
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Looking better if you like the colder but much weaker scenario. Right now most models are painting a picture of light snow with a coating to an inch or so. We'll see if this continues to change.
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Yeah, same here. We had a pretty good snow shower between 1:30 and 2 in the morning. Came down moderately for a little while and coated colder surfaces. Nice to see the first little accumulation of the season. Glad I was up late to see it.
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12z Euro gives most of the area a coating to an inch of snow sunday morning too. Looking as if we have a decent chance of seeing our first light accumulation sunday morning.
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Instead of sunday night into monday, it's looking as if sunday morning is our best shot to see a little accumulating snow. 12z RGEM gives a lot of the area a coating to an inch of snow sunday morning. Hopefully that will work out.
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Yeah we usually go a few degrees above forecast whenever there's full sunshine. 70 degrees was no surprise today. Several days ago I said I thought we'd hit it today. It's actually 71 here right now.
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70 degrees here. Absolutely beautiful day.
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Yeah, which has killed the sensitive plants like tomatoes of course. But the cold hardy vegetables are still fine. I just looked at the lettuce and it still looks fine. We've dropped to the upper 20s, but it takes several hours in the mid 20s to kill the cold hardy vegetables. So the gardening season in our area still isn't completely over.
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Looks as if we have a good chance of seeing 70 degrees thursday with the surge of warm air ahead of the front. Probably our last warm day for quite awhile with the blocking setting up for late November.
