winterwx21

Nice storm going on here. The rain is as heavy as yesterday, but today there's a lot more lightning. Some very close strikes here. Also some wind gusts around 30mph. Interesting that the the severe threat was supposed to be higher yesterday, but it's turning out that today's storms are stronger.

Picked up three quarters of an inch of rain here yesterday. Radar looks good .... another round of heavy downpours getting close. Good to get a lot of moisture into the soil before the heat wave.

Physical fitness level is one of the biggest factors... https://www.webmd.com/lung/news/20210419/more-exercise-lowers-risk-of-severe-covid-19-study The studies overwhelmingly show how important exercise is in reducing severe Covid risk. Makes perfect sense too. We know that the reason why most people that get severely ill and die from Covid is their heart, lungs and arteries can't take it. So if you get your heart lungs and arteries extra strong through exercise, there's a much better chance that they'll be able to stand Covid. Simple common sense. I think even a lot of the elderly deaths could have been prevented had people exercised their entire lives. That keeps the immune system, heart, lungs and arteries in better shape even at a much older age. Having said all this, I've decided that I'm going to get vaccinated. I'm going to go for the 1 dose J&J vaccine sometime in the next couple weeks. I'm not worried at all about severe Covid for myself since I've reduced my risk so much by being an athlete, but I think it's a good idea. Would nice to not have to worry about getting sick (even if it's just mild illness like when I had Covid last spring), and of course it's good to reduce the risk of passing it on to others. I also live in a very liberal area where they are big on vaccine requiremements. They're now reserving 90% of tickets for vaccinated people at Mets games, and I doubt they're going to allow people to go to big indoor events like concerts without being vaccinated. So I'm going to go ahead and do it.

We don't know if it was the case with James, but overall it's very sad how many people died during this pandemic because they were Trump supporters. All the people that refused to wear masks when the virus was at its peak because of Trump's attitude about masks. Really a shame.

Do you know why your buddy James didn't get the vaccine? I know he was overweight and had big health problems. Very sad what happened to him. Obviously it's critical for higher risk people to get the vaccine. Of course a 31 year old that's in great shape wouldn't be at risk of dying, but for those younger people that are at higher risk it's extremely important to get the vaccine.

I post the rt.com link where they talk about the study. If you do a google search you see lots of articles on this recent large study.

This recent study found that severe Covid risk starts increasing with a BMI just above of 23, which is in the normal range but on the higher end of it. Each point higher than 23 resulted in a 10% increase in ICU admission... https://www.rt.com/news/522682-obesity-coronavirus-young-study/

The big study done in California where they looked at almost 50,000 people found that physical inactivity was an even bigger risk factor than obesity. People that exercised had very low hospitalization and death rates while people that did not exercise had very high hospitalization and death rates. The study found that only old age and organ transplant were bigger risk factors than physical inactivity. No question old age is the biggest risk factor, but a lot of old people are at high risk because they've developed underlying conditions as a result of a lifetime of not being physically active. There are some old people that have done well with the virus because they exercised their entire lives and are still in great shape. I have a 90 year old neighbor that had only mild symptoms when she got Covid, because she's still in great shape due to exercise. Physical activity is incredibly important when it comes to Covid risk. The studies are overwhelming on that. You're right though, vaccines are the most important thing right now. Many lives would have been saved during the pandemic had health authorities gotten the message out that getting into shape greatly reduces Covid risk, but now we have vaccines that are close to 100% at preventing severe illness. So it's very important for most people to get the vaccine. The exceptions are people that are naturally immune due to previous infection, and the small percentage of people that put themselves at very low risk due to being in great shape through exercise. It is definitely still important to get the message out (as Dr. Sallis says in the quotes that I provided) on how severe illness can be prevented through exercise, because there are going to be some people that don't get the vaccine for various reasons (whether valid or not). Getting into shape can save the lives of many of these people.

No question it's difficult for some people for a number of reasons, and that's why I would never judge all people for failing to lose weight. Some people have health problems that prevent them from being able to exercise. Others have very difficult jobs where they work tremendously long hours, and that makes it very difficult to exercise. There are healthy food issues, as you said. So some people certainly have valid reasons, but of course there are many people that do not have valid reasons and could lose the weight if they wanted to. It's a shame that so many of these people have died because they didn't understand that they were at greater severe Covid risk due to being out of shape. A huge problem has been the lack of messaging from health authorities during this pandemic. Recently I posted the study done in California where they looked at nearly 50,000 people that got Covid, and found that the people that were physically inactive had much higher rates of hospitalization and death than people that were consistently physically active. Dr. Robert Sallis, a family and sports medicine physician, was the lead author of the study. He is one of many doctors that have been VERY upset with the health authorities for not getting the message out during the pandemic. Here are a few quotes from Dr. Sallis... "The bottom line from our data is that physical inactivity is the biggest modifiable risk factor of severe Covid," Sallis says. "Unfortunately, most of the messaging has been around just hide in the house, wear a mask, distance and wait for a vaccine," Sallis says. "And that's been a huge mistake. We speak very little, which is typical in health care today, about personal responsibility, and people need to take control of their health and the best way to do it is by being active." "A message that physical activity could protect you from ending up in the hospital, in my view, could have saved lives over the past year, but I would also say it's not too late to get started." So many other doctors are making similar quotes. It's just really a shame that a pandemic of this horrific level didn't have to happen. The state of health is very sad, and a big problem is many doctors themselves are in denial about this problem and refuse to get the message out.

A lot of people are not getting vaccinated because they're naturally immune due to previous Covid infection. Is there reason to be resentful of these people? It makes no sense to me taking a shot that you don't need. There have been studies that have come out lately that have shown that natural protection from previous infection is long lasting. In fact there was a study that came out in the last week where they looked at the bone marrow samples of recovered patients, and it found that they still had protection 11 months later. This is great news for people that already had Covid. I do not like that health authorities are trying to push people that are already immune naturally to still get the vaccine. Makes little sense to take a shot that you don't need. And as far as the healthy lifestyle, to me it doesn't seem like a struggle. 5 days a week of doing about 1 hour of intense exercise. That's what it took for me to lose 30 pounds. There are 168 hours in a week, so 5 hours set aside for exercise in a week doesn't seem like that much to ask to me. It's not as if you have to exercise for hours every day to lose a significant amount of weight.

You're definitely right about this. Covid is much much worse than the flu for young people that are overweight and have underlying health conditions.

It's just a shame seeing these stories of young people dying because they didn't realize that they were at higher Covid risk due to their health, so I feel it's important to hammer the point that it's critical for young people to get into shape if they don't want to be vaccinated. BuffaloWeather always responds with these posts about rare cases where athletes get more sick, like he doesn't understand that a very significant risk reduction through exercise is a very important thing for people that won't take the vaccine. These rare severe cases are going to happen, but you'd much rather have a very tiny risk than a much more significant risk. So I'm not sure why he keeps responding to my posts this way.

Here in NJ they lifted the mask mandate yesterday. I went to Shoprite today, and they are still requiring customers to wear masks. I didn't see 1 customer without a mask today. I heard Stop & Shop is doing the same thing. Stores in this area are being extra cautious, and I think that's fine. Nothing wrong with being cautious for a little longer. We are down to just a few hundred cases being reported per day in NJ, a huge drop from the 4 to 5 thousand that were being reported per day a couple months ago. I would think when we get into the middle of summer and cases are down to just a handful per day, the stores with stop requiring masks. I did go to the bakery today as well, and they removed the mask requirement. For now it's gonna a mix in this state with some businesses requiring them and some not.

So you wouldn't root for weather like this all the time, correct? I've seen you say that you would love cold/snowy weather all the time. That would not work with baseball. I've questioned you on it before and never gotten a response. I'm sure you do not mean it when you say you would like weather like that all year round, because that would mean no baseball. I know you are a big baseball fan. I love winter and snowy weather, but I would never want it in spring/summer because it would ruin so many outdoor things that happen in those seasons. Can't imagine no growing season and no baseball season.

“The doctors told me if I played one more game in the World Junior Championship, this could have ended completely different,” Rossi said Tuesday, his voice still quavering from the memory of how close he may have been to a tragic ending. “I’m thankful to God that he supported me. … I’m just happy that I’m still alive.” Knowing Rossi was devastated by the realization that he was that close to potentially having his heart stop on the ice, Wild general manager Bill Guerin sent Rossi home to Austria to be with his parents. Rossi was petrified. Anytime he was alone, he worried his heart was going to stop. After returning home to Austria, Rossi lived with his parents and each night begged his mother, Claudia, and father, Michael, to sleep in his room. After being drafted by the Wild in October, Rossi signed his three-year, entry-level contract a few weeks later. The Wild assigned him to the ZSC Lions in Zurich, Switzerland, to allow him to play hockey and ramp up for a potential Wild training camp in the winter. He played one game, registered an assist but was then diagnosed with COVID-19. He experienced mild symptoms, including lower back pain. By the time he was cleared and ready to return, three other players tested positive and the team was put into quarantine. Still, during his comeback attempt with the Lions, Rossi said he was absolutely exhausted. He figured it was because he was so used to pushing his body to great lengths and his body must have been shellshocked from not being allowed to do anything during his 10-day COVID-19 quarantine. “My exhaustion (from Switzerland) always kept going. It didn’t stop. Like, it was never, ‘Now I’m back to 100 percent,’” Rossi said. “At the tournament, that was the highest point where I said, ‘OK, I can’t do it anymore. I’m so tired.’” Dr. Bill Morice, the president of Mayo Clinic Laboratories and chair of Lab Medicine and Pathology at the Rochester, Minn.-based hospital, explained there are four ways to diagnose myocarditis: Blood work can show an elevation of some of the enzymes specific to the heart muscle that can leak into the blood if there’s inflammation; EKG abnormalities; imaging, like an MRI; and a heart biopsy, which is the most definitive but not commonly done. After follow-ups to the initial bloodwork, Rossi and the Wild got definitive news that he indeed had myocarditis. Neither the Rossis nor Payer are blaming the ZSC Lions or Team Austria for clearing Rossi to return after his bout with COVID-19. “I don’t want to blame anyone,” Rossi said. “The COVID is so new to everyone, and nobody really knows what is the best reaction to do. … I’m just happy that I’m still alive.” You always post something like this after I've pointed out the severe covid risk reduction from being in shape through exercise. I realize it is not 100% protection. There will always be some severe cases in people that are in shape. But it does greatly reduce risk. I've posted several studies that have showed that. Myocarditis is a rare covid complication in athletes. There was a major study done that showed that it happened to 0.6% of athletes, so the number is very low. Much lower than the general population. Being in athlete level shape does give a high level of protection, but again there will always be some cases. You can get vaccinated and reduce the risk to just about zero, or get into shape and have a very low risk that you can live with. My main point is do not let yourself get out of shape AND not get the vaccine, because then the risk is much higher. It's very sad when you see the stories of young people dying.

The one thing you notice when you see pictures of young people that die of Covid is they're usually overweight. I know you pointed it out on monday when you posted the story of another young person that died of the virus, and it's the same thing with this young police officer. Young people need to realize (and the numbers show this dramatically) that when it comes to this terrible virus, the protective benefit of being young is really lost if you're out of shape. I don't understand how people that are so overweight can be confident that the virus won't threaten their life. Even if you're young, it's critical to either get the vaccine or get into shape. Obviously getting the vaccine gives the best protection since these vaccines work so great, but getting into shape at least gives a good level of protection from severe illness and death. These stories are very sad. Young people that didn't have to die.

At least it appears that we will salvage 1 day of the holiday weekend. The models have the rain getting out of the way by early monday morning. Monday is looking pretty good.

I know they opened up the vaccines much earlier for young people with any underlying health conditions that put them at greater risk of severe Covid though, so it's possible he could have gotten vaccinated very early on since he had health problems as ORH_wxman just mentioned. But we don't know for sure what the situation was for him. Very sad news. Obviously a great guy. RIP.

The big change on the Euro is it lingers the rain well into monday too. The previous Euro run cleared it out for monday, and most other models clear it out for monday. Hopefully this 12z Euro run isn't a sign that monday will be bad too.

The early evening storm didn't drop a lot of rain here (only .10), but had some impressive 40 to 50mph wind gusts. We got another storm late tonight that didn't have the wind that the early evening storm had, but it had much heavier rain. A quick very heavy downpour that dropped a quarter inch. So we ended up with a little over a third of an inch of rain for the day. Finally a decent watering for gardens. Looking forward to the much bigger soaking late friday.

We don't know if next weekend's rain will stay south, but it does appear that we have a decent chance of some strong storms in the heat/humidity wednesday evening. Hopefully that will work out, because the soil is really dry right now. Really need some rain.

I know New Jersey has one of the best vaccination rates. Right now we have 44% fully vaccinated and 61% have gotten one dose. I'm sure that's the biggest reason why we're seeing a major Covid decline here now.

Here in NJ the transmission rate has fallen to 0.63, the lowest it has been during the entire pandemic. Great to see the virus in rapid decline now.

89 degrees here! Temps always go higher than forecast in these situations.

Things are rapidly improving now here in NJ. Cases are down 31% from a week ago and 42% from a month ago. 60% of people in this state have received 1 dose and 42% are fully vaccinated. It seems as if 40% vaccination is the area in which cases start to decline significantly.