winterwx21

Yeah the 2 snowstorms in January were nice, but we didn't have the big beautiful flakes that we have right now. We were at about 15 before this event, so this will get us to 18 or a little over for the winter. Late February looking very warm, so this is likely our only snow event for February. It's going to take a good March snowstorm to get us to near normal snowfall for the winter here. But if it doesn't happen, at least this wasn't one of those disasterous winters with single digits snowfall. Getting close to 20 inches for a winter here certainly isn't good, but it also isn't horrible.

2.5" here so far. Another nice little band blossomed on radar so we're back to moderate snow and the flakes are big. Maybe we can get to 3 inches here. Beautiful out there with the wet snow covering everything. Nice event.

RGEM looks as if it's bumping up amounts too. Snow map isn't out yet, but the run looked more impressive on the color loop.

I know the HRRR is a very inconsistent model. Hopefully it will score a victory with this one. It continues to show a solid 3 inch snowfall for the entire area on its 12z run.

Good to see the Euro looking better too. Gets the 2 inch line up close to our area now. Instead of it trending to a non event, the models are trending a little better as we get closer. Still a light event, but 1 to 2 inches is a heck of a lot better than a dusting. Hopefully this solution will hold tomorrow, or even improve a little bit more.

I'm still irritated about that storm in early January that gave ACY 13 inches of snow while we got nothing. It has become more and more common in recent years for coastal areas (especially Long Island) to get much more snow than areas to the north and west. It seems to be part of our new climate. Anyway, we can hope that the 18z runs of NAM and HRRR are a sign that the sunday morning event will trend better to become the type of event that gives us a few inches. Seems unlikely, but there is a slight chance. Most likely it's a very light event. 18z RGEM gives most of the area close to an inch. At least it looks likely that we'll get a little accumulation. I'll enjoy any little bit we get, especially since the pattern for late February doesn't look good. This could be our only snow of the month.

If it's gonna be mild this time of year, I say it's better to be nice and warm (like the 60 degrees today) rather than a mediocre warmup to 50 degrees. Nice to be able to be outside without having to wear much.

Not much change. Coating to an inch and a half for most of the area. Of course we will be coming off very warm weather with a warm ground, so most accumulation would be on colder surfaces. It does help though that this will be happening early in the morning.

Yep, especially if it's sunny outside. I always tack on about 3 degrees to the forecast high temp in these situations. Figured it would be 60 instead of 57 here today.

Looks like we're gonna hit 60 today. Absolutely beautiful. I'm going to go for a run outside this afternoon with a t-shirt on.

If we get this frontal snow, it's looking like a late saturday night and sunday morning event. GGEM is showing the light snow lasting until midday. GGEM was the best looking 0z model tonight.

It's over as far as getting a significant storm, but a light event with the front is still on the table. GFS tonight gave us nothing, but several other models give us an inch or two. 0z Euro just came in with an inch for NYC and 2 inches a little south of the city. This certainly can become nothing, but a light accumulating snow sunday morning is also very possible. We continue to watch it.

0z RGEM has a solid band of light snow along the front sunday morning. We certainly have a shot at seeing a nice little 1 to 2 inch snow event. Not a big deal, but I'll gladly take any accumulating snow that we can get. Especially since it looks like our last chance for awhile, with the pattern for late February into early March not looking good.

12z Euro was a little better. A little accumulating light snow sunday morning. It gets about an inch up to NYC with a couple inches for central and southern NJ. The hope of seeing a moderate event is fading, but hopefully we can at least pull off a light event.

0z GFS and GGEM both showing a light snowfall for sunday. A 1 to 3 inch type of event. I would certainly take it, but hopefully it'll trend towards being a more moderate event.

BTW the 12z UKMET showed a 1 to 2 inch snowfall. Yeah it's quite a model spread right now. Euro barely brushes us while GGEM is too ampted and rain. GFS in between, showing a significant snow event. Hopefully we will see an in between scenario as you mentioned. Hopefully we'll have a good idea by friday. Always seems to take awhile for the models to agree.

I just watched the color loop, and the GGEM is actually is showing rain for NYC sunday.

At least it's gonna be cold monday and tuesday. So we'd have a couple days to enjoy the snow on the ground, before the big melting midweek.

A miss with the coastal storm, but CMC did give us a light snowfall sunday morning. About an inch. GFS tried to show a little something too.

Last night's Euro hit us with some snow, but today's 12z run is out to sea. GFS and GGEM are too far to the south and east as well. Obviously still plenty of time for it to trend closer. At least there is a potential storm, and it's not bad having the models too far south and east at this early point.

The 18z run of RGEM is saying maybe we get up to an inch of snow tomorrow morning. That certainly would be nice.

I see RGEM has it as light snow (a dusting to half inch) for us tomorrow morning, rather than freezing rain. Hopefully that will be the case.

I always enjoy and appreciate your posts, Don. We have a mild week coming up this week and potential for a mild late February. Sounds as if it's important to take advantage of the cold window we have coming in mid February. Cold air comes in next sunday and stays for several days. Hopefully we can get a snow event during that period.

32 degrees with snow flurries here right now. After 99% of the storm was rain, we're seeing a tiny bit of frozen precip here at the end. Pavement is just wet, but a slight glaze on the cars.

For days GFS kept insisting my area would see a horrific ice storm, but instead we ended up being all rain here. It was way off for my area. The truth for the tri-state ended up being in between GFS and the warmer models. Even though GFS overdid it, it certainly was useful since it alerted us early on that there would be an ice threat for at least part of the area.