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winterwx21

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Everything posted by winterwx21

  1. winterwx21
    12z Euro just came in warmer with a rain event, but obviously a long way to go.
  2. winterwx21
    It definitely can be frustrating. And I am a little frustrated that we missed out on the really big totals that the Jersey shore and Long Island are getting, but I'm still happy with this storm. It's not as if we got a small advisory level event. It was a solid warning level event here. 7 inches is a significant amount of snow. Not bad at all. After missing 2 other snowstorms to the south this month, I'm glad we didn't miss out on this one.
  3. winterwx21
    Thanks for the update on that. Your 7.25 is just about the same as the measurement I just got here. Still coming down decently here -- high end light snow, but the back edge is getting close. I'm probably going to end up a little over 7 and a half inches. Close to what we were expecting last night.
  4. winterwx21
    It's picking up a little bit here again as we get closer to the back edge. I think most amounts in Middlesex County will be between 6 and 8. I have a little over 7 here.
  5. winterwx21
    The snowfall rates have picked up a bit here again. Low end moderate I'd say here right now. The back edge isn't too far away though. Maybe we pick up another half inch? Ending up between 7 and 8 looks reasonable but of course it varies a little from town to town. Some in Middlesex county will be closer to 6 while some get 7 to 8.
  6. winterwx21
    We definitely have quite a bit more than 4 considering the size of the drifts. At least 6. Measuring is very difficult obviously. I actually have us close to 7 now but it's tough to be exact. RU848789 is in Metuchen (not too far away) and he is excellent at measuring, and reported 6 and a quarter inches a couple hours ago. So I think I'm pretty close with the near 7 measurement I had a little while ago. Too bad we missed the much bigger amounts, but this is still a very nice warning level storm for our area. We have a couple more hours of snow to go too.
  7. winterwx21
    It's not heavy, but a steady moderate snow. Radar actually looks pretty good. Could have a few more hours of light to moderate snow. We're approaching 7 inches now, so I think we have a good chance of getting to 8. About what we were expecting. A nice storm.
  8. winterwx21
    I agree. 6 to 10 inches is a very nice and significant storm. It was very frustrating that we completely missed 2 other snowstorms to the south this month. I'm just happy that we're not going to miss it this time.
  9. winterwx21
    Yeah this Euro run really isn't showing amounts much different than we were expecting. We know that you have to go well east of the city to get a blockbuster storm. A good 7 or 8 inches for our area is still a very nice storm.
  10. winterwx21
    Yeah the Kuchera ratio map is showing about 10 inches more for Long Island than the 10:1 map. 3 feet instead of 2 feet. Obviously Kuchera is not taking into account that the wind would mess up the ratios. Although I think it would still be slightly better than 10:1.
  11. winterwx21
    Not bad at all. I'd certainly sign for what this Euro run is showing. Just give me a nice 5-6 inch snowstorm and I'll be happy. This combined with what NAM/RGEM are showing gives me more confidence that we're in decent shape for a moderate snowstorm.
  12. winterwx21
    RGEM is a very good model, so it's big that we have it on our side. I'm feeling good about this event.
  13. winterwx21
    It still gets a few inches all the way back to western NJ. The really big storm idea seems to be falling apart, but hopefully we can at least pull off something like RGEM is showing. Several inches would at least be a decent snow event.
  14. winterwx21
    Yeah, this run showing a lot less snow for NYC than last night's run. Still a decent storm on this run, but we can't like the trends.
  15. winterwx21
    About a 6 inch storm for the NYC area on the RGEM, far less than NAM. Still a little early to take models like RGEM and NAM very seriously though.
  16. winterwx21
    I was so into that game that I didn't even realize it was snowing. Nice little quarter inch coating here.
  17. winterwx21
    I see 12z GGEM is giving areas just slightly to the northwest of NYC a significant snowstorm late tuesday, and changes the city over to snow for a few hours at the end with a couple inches. I assume GGEM is off on this though. This scenario doesn't seem very realistic for the reasons you stated.
  18. winterwx21
    It did finally bail, although even last night's 0z Nam did give central NJ close to 2 inches of snow. RGEM actually correctly picked up that areas to the north would get slightly more than areas to the south due to the colder temps. RGEM outperformed NAM big-time with this event.
  19. winterwx21
    Thanks for posting this .... great info. I've noticed that RGEM has been excellent the last several years. It's usually the model I trust the most with snow amounts.
  20. winterwx21
    A little frustrating, but certainly not a shock. We've seen this many times before where rain changing to snow behind a cold front doesn't work out. Last night's RGEM gave our area only a quarter to half inch of snow, so the writing was on the wall. GFS not surprisingly did a horrendous job with the snow amounts, and NAM did a bad job too.
  21. winterwx21
    Just a light coating on colder surfaces here. Good job by RGEM yesterday saying this would be only a coating to an inch for most. I often talk about what a good model RGEM is, and it showed it again. Terrible job by GFS, NAM and HRRR with the higher amounts they showed.
  22. winterwx21
    GFS looks way overdone. Euro is saying this is a 1 inch snowfall. RGEM is just a coating to 1 inch, and NAM really cut back. A lot of evidence tonight that this event is going to be smaller than we had hoped.
  23. winterwx21
    I've found RGEM to be a very good model, but we'll see. I'm certainly rooting to see more snow tomorrow. Would love to see 3 inches with it accumulating on pavement well, but right now I'm thinking more like 1 inch mostly on colder surfaces. Hopefully I'm wrong.
  24. winterwx21
    Are you kidding? RGEM is a more skilled short range model.
  25. winterwx21
    RGEM more likely to be right than GFS, but you never know for sure. We can hope.
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