winterwx21

This map is always overinflated, as Allsnow has pointed out. The one that he posted tends to be more accurate and shows more like a 4 inch snowfall, compared to the 5 that this one is showing. Nice to see the NAM go colder though. 3 to 4 inches is looking like a decent possibility now.

That certainly was an ugly 12z GFS run for long range. A shame that what looked like a flip to a sustained cold pattern about a week ago completely fell apart in the last few days. Long range is so difficult to predict. Thank goodness chances are increasing that we'll pick up a few inches of snow here on saturday. It looks like our last snow threat for quite awhile. Hopefully February will be good like some of the signs are pointing to.

12z HRRR is pretty cold too, with 2 to 4 for most of the area.

Today's 12z NAM at hour 84 has 1 to 2 inches for NYC, and 4 inches just a shade away from NYC. Most of northern NJ is 4 inches. NYC is right near the edge of the more significant snow on this run. Of course this is long range NAM, so there's a ways to go before it gets into its more reliable range.

0z GFS looks colder and weaker. A nice little hit of 2 to 3 inches of snow, and then not much rain.

Too early to say it looks like an all out snowstorm. GFS is a nice snowstorm, but other models aren't as impressive and show just a light snow accumulation getting washed away by rain. 12z EURO is just a 1 to 2 inch snowfall for NYC and nearby areas, and then rain. You have to go well to the NW to get a 3 to 5 inch snowfall according to today's EURO. But we have a long way to go, so hopefully it'll improve. It's very likely going to change to rain, but strength and position of the high to the north will determine whether it's a light accumulation washed away by plenty of rain or a more significant accumulation that won't be totally washed away by some rain towards the end.

Yeah, 12z GGEM is mostly rain for NYC. Pattern is just in the process of improving, so it might not be good enough yet to prevent a big cutter and mostly rain. Maybe high pressure will be strong enough to give us a decent front end dump though. Obviously still way too early to know. Precip looks to come in friday night, so I think we'll start getting a better idea tuesday night when we get to the 3 day range.

GFS now has a big warmup in late January (around the 23rd) after a transient cold shot. But who knows, very long range is so tough to predict. It wasn't long ago that we thought there would be a very long period of warm weather in mid to late January, but now it's turning out to be only a 6 day warm period as the cold comes back late next week. So who knows about very long range. At least we know we have a decent window for wintry weather towards next weekend into early the following week. But beyond that, who knows.

Took awhile to reach the ground, but we did have some moderate snow. Light snow right now. Pretty out there with a light coating on colder surfaces. Maybe we can squeeze out a half inch.

Yeah it really is having a hard time reaching the ground. Radar echoes say I have moderate snow right now, but I don't even have a flurries falling. Too bad some of this decent band is being wasted by the dry air.

18z NAM is actually showing a few inches of snow for the coast tuesday afternoon/evening. Other models aren't as cold, but something to keep an eye on.

The problem is it's going to be 40 degrees on tuesday. Even if it comes in as wet snow rather than rain near the coast, it would likely be non accumulating snow or a light accumulation on colder surfaces at best. It looks like an event for well to the north and west rather than near the coast. Very borderline airmass, as the colder air doesn't come in until behind the storm. Wednesday will be colder and windy.

The problem is the airmass will be very borderline. The colder air doesn't really come in until after the event on wednesday. So if there ends up being some mix or snow with light accumulations, it would probably be an event for well to the north and west on tuesday into tuesday night. Most likely rain or some mix and non accumulating snow near the coast. Wednesday looks like a cold windy day. A decent shot of cold air before the much talked about big warm pattern settles in friday.

Amy Freeze is the worst weather person I've ever seen on tv. So many mistakes that it's mind-boggling. Today she keeps talking about how saturday is going to be a beautiful sunny day with low humidity, yet every time the 7 day forecast is put up it has a thunderstorm posted for saturday. She is so dumb that she keeps missing that miatake. And I've seen this type of mistake happen so many times with her. She is a complete and utter joke. What a difference from the high quality forecasts from Lee Goldberg and Jeff Smith. I wonder if someone on channel 7 will finally catch the mistake and take that thunderstorm off of saturday the next time they show the 7 day forecast. This is a joke.

Yep I felt my house shake a little while ago.