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winterwx21

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Everything posted by winterwx21

  1. winterwx21
    Looks as if tomorrow could be our last day with normal temps for a long time. No cold air on the models in the long range ... constant above normal temps. Of course long range is changeable, so hopefully something will change. But right now it's a very depressing look for winter lovers.
  2. winterwx21
    I just measured 1.7" inch here, and yeah it's sleeting here too. Lighter intensity precip, so it could flip back to snow is some heavier stuff moves in.
  3. winterwx21
    The change in recent days is another example of how difficult long range forecasting is. It wasn't long ago that the signs pointed to a very good pattern for late January. Now it looks like garbage. Thankfully we're getting this snow event today so January doesn't end up being a shutout.
  4. winterwx21
    That band in PA looks good. Latest HRRR is now giving 3 inches to our area ... good to see it's picking up on that band that will give us good accumulations later this afternoon.
  5. winterwx21
    12z NAM is giving nnj only about 2 inches now while it gives parts of Long Island 3 inches. But yeah, GFS does look much better for our area. NAM, RGEM and HRRR give us only 1 to 2 inches here now though. A cutback from what they were showing last night and I find it odd that some models are now giving LI more snow than our area. Hopefully GFS is correct for us.
  6. winterwx21
    NAM and HRRR actually give Long Island more snow than northern Jersey now. Doesn't make much sense since LI was supposed to get less due to warming. Models have suddenly cut way back for my area, showing closer to 1 inch. Bad trends here at the last minute for this area. I know people say it doesn't matter because it's nowcasting time, but models are supposed to be more accurate the closer they get to an event. So they should be more accurate now than they were last night, but it's hard to believe LI could get more than northern NJ in this kind of setup.
  7. winterwx21
    This map is always overinflated, as Allsnow has pointed out. The one that he posted tends to be more accurate and shows more like a 4 inch snowfall, compared to the 5 that this one is showing. Nice to see the NAM go colder though. 3 to 4 inches is looking like a decent possibility now.
  8. winterwx21
    That certainly was an ugly 12z GFS run for long range. A shame that what looked like a flip to a sustained cold pattern about a week ago completely fell apart in the last few days. Long range is so difficult to predict. Thank goodness chances are increasing that we'll pick up a few inches of snow here on saturday. It looks like our last snow threat for quite awhile. Hopefully February will be good like some of the signs are pointing to.
  9. winterwx21
    12z HRRR is pretty cold too, with 2 to 4 for most of the area.
  10. winterwx21
    Today's 12z NAM at hour 84 has 1 to 2 inches for NYC, and 4 inches just a shade away from NYC. Most of northern NJ is 4 inches. NYC is right near the edge of the more significant snow on this run. Of course this is long range NAM, so there's a ways to go before it gets into its more reliable range.
  11. winterwx21
    0z GFS looks colder and weaker. A nice little hit of 2 to 3 inches of snow, and then not much rain.
  12. winterwx21
    Too early to say it looks like an all out snowstorm. GFS is a nice snowstorm, but other models aren't as impressive and show just a light snow accumulation getting washed away by rain. 12z EURO is just a 1 to 2 inch snowfall for NYC and nearby areas, and then rain. You have to go well to the NW to get a 3 to 5 inch snowfall according to today's EURO. But we have a long way to go, so hopefully it'll improve. It's very likely going to change to rain, but strength and position of the high to the north will determine whether it's a light accumulation washed away by plenty of rain or a more significant accumulation that won't be totally washed away by some rain towards the end.
  13. winterwx21
    Yeah, 12z GGEM is mostly rain for NYC. Pattern is just in the process of improving, so it might not be good enough yet to prevent a big cutter and mostly rain. Maybe high pressure will be strong enough to give us a decent front end dump though. Obviously still way too early to know. Precip looks to come in friday night, so I think we'll start getting a better idea tuesday night when we get to the 3 day range.
  14. winterwx21
    GFS now has a big warmup in late January (around the 23rd) after a transient cold shot. But who knows, very long range is so tough to predict. It wasn't long ago that we thought there would be a very long period of warm weather in mid to late January, but now it's turning out to be only a 6 day warm period as the cold comes back late next week. So who knows about very long range. At least we know we have a decent window for wintry weather towards next weekend into early the following week. But beyond that, who knows.
  15. winterwx21
    Sleep is very important for health. I can understand losing sleep during the rare occasions when we're looking at a major snowstorm, but it's not worth it losing sleep over a potential snow event that would be minor at best. I hope you can stop doing this, for your health's sake.
  16. winterwx21
    Took awhile to reach the ground, but we did have some moderate snow. Light snow right now. Pretty out there with a light coating on colder surfaces. Maybe we can squeeze out a half inch.
  17. winterwx21
    Yeah it really is having a hard time reaching the ground. Radar echoes say I have moderate snow right now, but I don't even have a flurries falling. Too bad some of this decent band is being wasted by the dry air.
  18. winterwx21
    18z NAM is actually showing a few inches of snow for the coast tuesday afternoon/evening. Other models aren't as cold, but something to keep an eye on.
  19. winterwx21
    The problem is it's going to be 40 degrees on tuesday. Even if it comes in as wet snow rather than rain near the coast, it would likely be non accumulating snow or a light accumulation on colder surfaces at best. It looks like an event for well to the north and west rather than near the coast. Very borderline airmass, as the colder air doesn't come in until behind the storm. Wednesday will be colder and windy.
  20. winterwx21
    The problem is the airmass will be very borderline. The colder air doesn't really come in until after the event on wednesday. So if there ends up being some mix or snow with light accumulations, it would probably be an event for well to the north and west on tuesday into tuesday night. Most likely rain or some mix and non accumulating snow near the coast. Wednesday looks like a cold windy day. A decent shot of cold air before the much talked about big warm pattern settles in friday.
  21. winterwx21
    18z NAM Kuchera shows maybe a half inch of snow at most. You can't look at those ridiculous maps that count ice as snow.
  22. winterwx21
    The NAM Kuchera map shows barely a half inch of snow even for extreme northern NJ. It's a sleet/freezing rain event on the NAM.
  23. winterwx21
    I would use kuchera, and the 12z NAM kuchera map is showing only 1 inch for NYC. RGEM kuchera is better with close to 3 inches. Overall 1 to 2 mainly on colder surfaces still looks like the best call. BTW 12z HRRR looks really bad except for Long Island, but we're not in good HRRR range yet so hopefully it's off.
  24. winterwx21
    RGEM continues to look much better than NAM. 0z RGEM Kuchera is 3 to 4 inches for a lot of the area. I would go with more like 1 to 2 on colder surfaces for a prediction though.
  25. winterwx21
    Right now most models are showing temps falling to about the same level as what we had for last week's event. But it's early and let's hope this continues to trend better. Maybe we can get a period of very heavy snow that causes major dynamic cooling. I don't rule out the possibility of our area getting more significant accumulations, but right now I believe it's more likely to be light accumulations mainly on colder surfaces. We'll see.
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