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winterwx21

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Everything posted by winterwx21

  1. winterwx21
    12z UKMET showing a nice 6 inch snowstorm for NYC. A few inches from the thursday thump, and a few inches from the prolonged lighter snow that lasts into friday.
  2. winterwx21
    Looks as if the new Euro just coming in is going with the longer duration snow event scenario. The first wave thursday gives heavier snow just to our south. A lot for central/southern Jersey. But the snow is reloading for thursday night ... accumulating snow still going on here into early friday morning. Despite the heaviest of the first wave thursday going just to our south, we still end up getting a good 6 inches up here due to the lighter snow continuing into friday morning.
  3. winterwx21
    The GGEM actually has the snow picking back up friday night. I know this isn't one of the better models, so I don't know how likely this is.
  4. winterwx21
    I watched the color loop on this site. It always comes out early on this site. You just hit animate and you can watch the color loop. First 48 hours it's the RGEM, and then it switches over to GGEM. You just hit animate. It's a nice tool. It's just like watching the futurecast that you see on TV, only it's the Canadian models instead... https://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html
  5. winterwx21
    GGEM is showing a significant thump of snow before going over to sleet. Very cold ... even the south coast of NJ gets a few hours of snow before mixing. Gotta like that we have a VERY cold airmass in place for this storm.
  6. winterwx21
    At least thursday's storm is looking pretty good right now. Hopefully it won't trend warmer as we get closer. A nice 6 inch snowstorm like EURO is showing would get NYC to about 40 inches for the season. That would be terrific.
  7. winterwx21
    Ice is beautiful. It's a spectacular nature scene when everything is coated with sparkling ice, so some weather enthusiasts are going to root for it even though it causes problems. But this storm could easily be more of a sleet/snow situation like 12z UKMET is showing, rather than freezing rain. Or plain rain like GGEM is showing. A lot of possible solutions and obviously way too early to know.
  8. winterwx21
    12z UKMET does give snow. The snow maps on pivoltalweather are high quality and don't count sleet as snow. 12z UKMET is giving us over 6 inches of snow.
  9. winterwx21
    I see 12z UKMET is giving us a lot of snow monday night into tuesday. Just another solution in this difficult setup. Anything from rain to snow to a lot of ice is possible.
  10. winterwx21
    I guess I'm in the minority but I love ice. I don't think there's a more beautiful scene than having trees coated with sparkling ice. It looks spectacular.
  11. winterwx21
    Looks as if Euro does give us several inches of snow before changing to ice tuesday. Obviously a long way to go with this one.
  12. winterwx21
    It looks as if UKMET is the only model giving us a couple inches of snow sunday. Hopefully it's right, but obviously ice looks more likely right now since most other models are showing that.
  13. winterwx21
    I see UKMET gives us a couple inches of snow sunday morning. I wonder if that's a decent possibility, or if it's much more likely to be ice.
  14. winterwx21
    18z NAM gets 3 inches up to north-central NJ. I think the winter weather advisories need to be extended up to Hunterdon, Somerset and Middlesex counties.
  15. winterwx21
    The Euro is now showing 2 to 3 inches up to our area now too. Since a good 2 to 3 inches of snow looks likely now, I would think the winter weather advisories will be extended north to north-central NJ and the NYC area later this afternoon.
  16. winterwx21
    2 to 3 inches for the NYC area on the UKMET. Not bad. I think most of us would be happy with that amount for this type of event. Hopefully the Euro comes north like everything else did tonight.
  17. winterwx21
    Yep, this GGEM run is mostly snow rather than sleet. Hopefully the weekend storm trends more towards snow, rather than ice.
  18. winterwx21
    Keeping the door open was wise, as we know these things tend to bump north as they get closer.
  19. winterwx21
    And a nice little bump north on 0z NAM. Gets 2 inches up to my area now, after the 18z run had almost nothing. Maybe our thursday morning light accumulating snow event is looking more likely now.
  20. winterwx21
    18z RGEM using Kuchera does get 2 to 3 inches of snow up to north-central NJ, NYC and LI for thursday morning. HRRR and GFS are pretty close too, having our area on the edge of the accumulating snow with an inch or so. It's hard to like this potential event right now with Euro and NAM south. Still enough time though, and hopefully those models will start a north trend tonight. With the very cold air in place, we would have good snow ratios and obviously no problems with the snow sticking. So I wouldn't give up hope for this potential event yet. North trend often works out.
  21. winterwx21
    The Canadian gives a prolonged period of sleet and freezing rain with the weekend storm. Long way to go on that one.
  22. winterwx21
    Looks as if our overrunning event might be falling apart, but still plenty of time for it to trend back in the right direction.
  23. winterwx21
    Pretty significant south shift from its ridiculously warm 12z run. Still not enough as it keeps the 1 inch of snow line slightly north of NYC, but another shift like this on the 0z run tonight would put NYC in the game. This certainly gives hope that there's at least a slight chance that RGEM is right with the snowy solution.
  24. winterwx21
    So you're pretty sure the RGEM is wrong then. We can still hope for the slight chance that it's right though.
  25. winterwx21
    12z Euro still misses us to the south with this event. Hopefully the other models are right about us getting a few inches thursday morning, but who knows with the Euro not on board.
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