winterwx21

UKMET has huge snow totals for north-central NJ to NYC. Great run and a good sign that it came back north.

The timing on the 12z UKMET is a little later, as snow doesn't come in until late sunday night, but it gives NYC a good 8 inches of snow by early tuesday morning. The UKMET is certainly on board now.

The 18z HRRR sure looks good. 2 to 3 inches of snow for north-central NJ and NYC. Similar to the Euro. Hopefully NAM is off with the warmer solution.

Euro definitely just came in colder. Gets 2 inches of snow down close to NYC and into north-central NJ now. Would be nice to see a late colder trend today into tonight.

12z NAM a solid 2 to 2 and a half inches for my area. I'd gladly take that. Long period of light snow from tuesday afternoon to early wednesday morning.

Euro looks pretty good. A few inches of snow for the NYC area tuesday afternoon into tuesday night.

Hopefully the 12z GGEM is right about it being a few inches of snow here for midday tuesday.

GGEM misses us to the south with the first wave of precip monday night, but it actually gives us a decent period of snow for late morning to early afternoon tuesday. Haven't seen a snow map yet, but it looked decent on the color loop.

NAM just came in with a pretty good hit. Major improvement.

As dry as 12z Euro is, it still gives most of the area 2 to 3 inches. We'll gladly take an advisory level event after getting so little snow most of January.

Euro still showing a 1.5 to 4 inch snow for a lot of the area. This continues to look like a decent advisory level event. A little early for predictions, but right now looking like a 2 to 4 or 3 to 5 event. Euro right now is showing slightly less than the other models.

After the strong cold front comes through next friday, GFS is showing pretty much constant cold temps the rest of the run. If we get a long period of cold temps in mid to late January, odds are high that we'll get snow at some point. Even if it's just a couple of lighter snow events. The important thing is to get the cold in here for an extended period of time to set the stage, and that appears to be on the way. Way too early to worry about the guidance not showing snow threats. Odds are the guidance will pick up on something when we get closer to the cold pattern.

Long range forecasting is so difficult that it's not worth getting worked up over anything beyond a week. The skill level is just too low to be accurate much beyond a week. Not long ago the long range stuff indicated that early January looked promising, but now it's looking ugly instead. But we saw something similar awhile back when looking at mid December. For awhile the models showed a good period for mid December, but then there was a period of several days where they took it away. However they brought back the good look, and we ended up getting a major snowstorm. Right now early January doesn't look good, but a few days from now we could be looking at something completely different. Who knows. As I said, the long range skill level still isn't very good. It's especially difficult right now because we have blocking, but also an unfavorable Pacific. With mixed signals, the models are gonna have a hard time. So it's really hard to tell what's gonna happen in the first third of January.

There are lots of people that feel the opposite of this. After that last snowstorm, there were so many children and parents that said they were extremely happy to be able to go outside and play in the snow. They said it gave them a much needed feeling of normalcy during this pandemic. Bill Ritter of Eyewitness news, after presenting the story, even said that the snowstorm was almost like a type of vaccine during this pandemic. So there are a lot of people that feel that snow is an extra good thing during this pandemic. Getting outside to play and work in the snow is a good thing.

Not as cold as it was supposed to be today. Temp here is up to 37. Will be big-time radiational cooling tonight though.

NAM has been the model showing lower totals for this area due to both mid level warming and dry slot issues. So if we end up getting lower amounts, which appears to be the case right now (unless we get a very strong back end overnight), then NAM was the model that actually did the best.

I think we can. Probably going to pick up a couple inches on the backside of the storm early in the morning. I figured 8 to 12 for our area, so really hoping we can at least get to 8. And I think we will.

I'm in Piscataway, and sleet does mix in with the snow at times. At times all snow and at times snow/sleet mix. That's the way it has been the last hour. We have about 4.5" on the ground now. 24 degrees.

Everything looks on track for 8 to 12 inches of snow here I think. HRRR certainly looks good too, which is a good sign.

Yeah you definitely want to post the Kuchera ratio maps instead, which Pivotal Weather has.

I would think the worst case scenario for our area would be a 4 to 6 inch thump before the changeover, due to the very cold air in place. I'd be stunned if we got only an inch or two. Right now even the warmest models, like NAM and RGEM, give us about 8 inches before mixing.

Higher and lower. It doesn't go with the standard 10:1 and accounts for higher or lower based on temps and other conditions. So in this case it would show lower snow amounts and not count sleet in snow totals. Right now Kuchera NAM and RGEM are still giving my area (north-central NJ) about 8 inches of snow. Really hoping it won't continue to trend worse. Will be interesting to see if GFS and EURO still show the bigger snow solutions. Hopefully NAM and RGEM are a little too amped.

Kuchera ratio RGEM is still showing a pretty good snowstorm before the changeover to sleet. Not the blockbuster snowstorm, but I'd still be happy with a good 8 inches of snow. Hopefully this is about as warm as the solutions will get, rather than continuing to fall apart at the last minute.

Picked up a half inch of snow here, and a beautiful postcard scene with the wet snow coating the trees. A nice surprise today. I knew we'd see snow showers today, but wasn't expecting this much accumulation.

It is, but there are plenty of elite athletes that have resting heart rates in the 40s and 50s. It doesn't have to be that low to be an elite athlete. Some people seem shocked and have a hard time believing a resting heart rate in the 30s. All you have to do is a quick google search and you see plenty of medical sources that talk about it. Take a look at healthline.com and right away it says some athletes have resting heart rates in the 30 to 40 range. I guess some people have a hard time believing it because average people are in the 70s. But it's not unusual at all for athletes to be in the 40s or 30s. Anyway I want to give a specific example of how exercise can help with Covid. Exercise produces an antioxidant called EcSOD, which has been shown to protect against acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS). ARDS happens in the majority of Covid ICU patients, and is the cause of death in many of them. Zhen Yan, professor of cardiovascular medicine who runs a molecular exercise physiology lab at University of Virginia School of Medicine, did a major study on this. He says even a single exercise session can produce EcSOD, which fights this syndrome that kills so many Covid patients. So he believes that exercise should be added to things like mask wearing and social distancing as recommended things that can help with the pandemic. And just overall, exercise helps strengthen the immune system and improves lung health. Here is a quote from emergency medicine physician Dr. Jebidiah Ballard, when asked if exercise can help with Covid outcomes... "Would it improve their chances if they got Covid-19? Not in a day or week, but if they can improve their overall health over weeks, then very likely," she said. There are people on this board that obviously don't want to believe this stuff and even get irritated or take offense, but this is medical science that medical experts back up. Exercise and getting into better shape DOES reduce the risk of bad outcomes with Covid and can be done in a matter of just weeks as experts have pointed out, and I believe it's important to get this information out there. I'm sorry to the people that got offended by it, although I don't see reason why anyone should be offended. It's just about trying to help people during a horrific pandemic, and worth it if only a small amount of people beat Covid because they got into better shape. But if some people prefer to just isolate to avoid getting the virus until there is a vaccine, that certainly is a good approach too. I'm not going to go on and on about this any longer, as I've provided enough info. I wish everyone safety and good health as we try to get through the last several months of the pandemic. Take care.