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winterwx21

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Everything posted by winterwx21

  1. winterwx21
    56 degrees here right now!
  2. winterwx21
    Most people hate winter weather because it's disruptive. We're the unusual ones, but nothing wrong with being unusual! I absolutely love it! I'm glad we got a couple inches of snow out of this. Absolutely beautiful out there!
  3. winterwx21
    Sleet starting to mix in here now. A snow-sleet mix. I just measured 2.2". Really nice to get over 2 inches for the event here in extreme northern Middlesex county!
  4. winterwx21
    Still heavy snow here, and I'm in northern Middlsex. COD NEXRAD is showing the mix line still a little to our south.
  5. winterwx21
    I see the mixing got beaten back a little as it tried to move into northern Middlesex County. Going to be interesting to see how long it can be held off. Closing in on 2 inches ... turning out be be a nice event!
  6. winterwx21
    Heaviest snow of the winter going on here right now, and obviously that's really saying something. Incredible scene out there! A winter weather advisory was needed. Most models showed the snow coming in like a wall with 2 to 3 inches for our area, but I guess they were ignored.
  7. winterwx21
    33 degrees here, but it's sticking because the snow is SO heavy. Just pouring snow. We have over an inch on colder surfaces and even the roads are coated now.
  8. winterwx21
    12z Euro just came in very robust with several inches of snow northwest of NYC (much of northern NJ). Very close though with my area and the city near the edge of the accumulating snows. I'd feel very optimistic about this event if it was coming in early in the morning, but near midday concerns me and makes it more likely it's an event for north and west. We'll see though ... the airmass is decent and it wouldn't be surpring if it works out well, knowing how this winter has been going.
  9. winterwx21
    Actually several of the 12z models are showing 2 inches of snow just a little west of the city on monday.
  10. winterwx21
    GGEM and UKMET are similar to this. It seems as if it might be a little too warm, but several models are insisting that we'll see a 1 to 2 inch snow event here monday.
  11. winterwx21
    Despite all the talk of an overall milder pattern moving in, I wonder if we can sneak in a thread the needle snow event late next week with that little shot of cold air. Models do look interesting.
  12. winterwx21
    What about those radar echoes in eastern PA, moving into Hunterdon county NJ? Do you think that will swing through in the next few hours? To me it looks as if it might. We got 1 inch here too. Hoping for a little more.
  13. winterwx21
    Continues to be a snow/sleet mix. As others have said, the borderline soundings indicate that we could go back and forth between snow and sleet. We're right on the edge here. We should continue to accumulate some. And of course sleet does accumulate and count in the snow totals. So far we have 3.5" here.
  14. winterwx21
    A little bit of sleet mixing with the snow here now. Still much more snow than sleet. Probably going to be a snow/sleet mix the next few hours, which should still accumulate at a decent rate.
  15. winterwx21
    We're already closing in on 3 inches here. Depending on how quickly it mixes, to me it looks as if we can get anywhere from 4 to 6 with this first batch. That would be in line with the forecast. And yes, we can add an inch or two tonight and tomorrow from the off and on lighter snows. Looking like a very nice event overall.
  16. winterwx21
    18z NAM Kuchera is pretty much a 6 inch thump for everyone tomorrow. North Jersey, Central Jersey, NYC and LI. Nice run.
  17. winterwx21
    12z Euro not using ratios (just going standard 10:1) is a 4 to 8 inch snowfall for the tri-state. Heaviest amounts middle of the area (central NJ jackpot), with lighter amounts well north and well south. About 6 for NYC. With ratios, maybe we go slightly higher than these amounts.
  18. winterwx21
    The thump of snow thursday on the Euro is heaviest just south of NYC. The 5 to 6 inches goes across central NJ. Euro does give NYC 3 to 4 inches from the thursday thump, on the northern edge of the heavier snow. Euro does still get NYC to 6 inches though, with ligher accumulating snows going through friday. So for NYC on the Euro, 3 to 4 inches from the thump and then a couple inches from the prolonged lighter snow that goes through friday. So still a very nice 6 inch storm for NYC on the Euro, but the jackpot 8 inch amounts are central NJ. Monmouth Couty could do very well with this.
  19. winterwx21
    12z UKMET showing a nice 6 inch snowstorm for NYC. A few inches from the thursday thump, and a few inches from the prolonged lighter snow that lasts into friday.
  20. winterwx21
    Looks as if the new Euro just coming in is going with the longer duration snow event scenario. The first wave thursday gives heavier snow just to our south. A lot for central/southern Jersey. But the snow is reloading for thursday night ... accumulating snow still going on here into early friday morning. Despite the heaviest of the first wave thursday going just to our south, we still end up getting a good 6 inches up here due to the lighter snow continuing into friday morning.
  21. winterwx21
    The GGEM actually has the snow picking back up friday night. I know this isn't one of the better models, so I don't know how likely this is.
  22. winterwx21
    I watched the color loop on this site. It always comes out early on this site. You just hit animate and you can watch the color loop. First 48 hours it's the RGEM, and then it switches over to GGEM. You just hit animate. It's a nice tool. It's just like watching the futurecast that you see on TV, only it's the Canadian models instead... https://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html
  23. winterwx21
    GGEM is showing a significant thump of snow before going over to sleet. Very cold ... even the south coast of NJ gets a few hours of snow before mixing. Gotta like that we have a VERY cold airmass in place for this storm.
  24. winterwx21
    At least thursday's storm is looking pretty good right now. Hopefully it won't trend warmer as we get closer. A nice 6 inch snowstorm like EURO is showing would get NYC to about 40 inches for the season. That would be terrific.
  25. winterwx21
    Ice is beautiful. It's a spectacular nature scene when everything is coated with sparkling ice, so some weather enthusiasts are going to root for it even though it causes problems. But this storm could easily be more of a sleet/snow situation like 12z UKMET is showing, rather than freezing rain. Or plain rain like GGEM is showing. A lot of possible solutions and obviously way too early to know.
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