winterwx21

Yeah here in NJ it's cooler than what was forecasted for today. Stuck in the mid 60s due to the cloudy skies.

Right now the models are showing just a brief cool shot for a couple days, and then it quickly warms back up to the 60s for sunday April 4th and beyond. But as we get closer we'll have to see if the models pick up on the possibility of chilly weather lingering longer due to the NAO being negative. Hopefully it will be quickly back to 60s like the models are showing right now. It's miserable when chilly weather lingers in April.

February was one of the best hardcore winter months we've ever had though. Very rare to have snow on the ground for 4 weeks straight in this area. That, combined with the fact that we had a nice December snowstorm, puts this winter in the *very good* category for me. Even though January was bad. 40 inches is a very good winter. I had 44 here, to be exact.

There are a few good ones that have full meteorology degrees like Lee Goldberg, Jeff Smith and Nick Gregory. But not many. Most other weather on air personalities in this area are terrible.

I had snow cover for almost 4 weeks straight. I can't remember the last time we had snow on the ground for that long. That is extremely unusual for this area. It was deep, deep winter for almost a month, so I have to say this was a very good winter.

Even GFS is showing hardly any snow now. NAM and RGEM show very little too. Not a big surprise that the models backed off on this, since back end snow is something that rarely works out for our area. Maybe it ends as some non accumulating wet flakes for a very short time.

And we had a nice December snowstorm this winter. Very good winter overall, despite January being snowless. 44 inches so far here in Piscataway. It looks as if it's over now that the models have dropped the early friday morning back end snow accumulation and we're going into a mild pattern for this weekend and next week, but of course we can't completely rule out something for the end of March and early April. It would be nice to see Central Park get to 40 inches, as Anthony said, but many other areas (especially just west of the city) did hit 40 inches. I'm very happy with the 44 inches here. Well above average.

I see GGEM just joined GFS and GFSv16 tonight in giving us a decent burst of snow friday morning, putting down a couple inches.

I have a very good relationship with both my cardiologist and primary care physician. I like to get opinions from both of them. Also I haven't completely ruled out getting vaccinated at some point. I'm reading that the Johnson & Johnson vaccine is having less severe allergic reactions than the other 2 vaccines. If it appears that the Johnson vaccine has a much lower rate of severe allergic reactions, it's possible that I would consider taking it. I'm definitely leaning heavily towards not getting vaccinated, but I'm not closing the door on it. I won't even be eligible until May, so there's plenty of time to think about it and make a final decision.

No question, and I do think the slight risk of the vaccine is worth it for higher risk people because the virus is a tremendous threat to higher risk people. We've seen how many people have died. The statistics are overwhelming is showing that most people that get sick enough with Covid to go to the hospital have overweight/obesity/underlying health conditions. And unfortunately, that's the majority of the population in this country. So this vaccine is a great and extremely important thing. But we do have a smaller percentage of the population that's at much lower risk, and for those people it's worth weighting the vaccine risk vs the Covid risk. The other week there was a debate on here about anaphylaxis reactions to the vaccine. Well since then, a new study came out that was published in JAMA on March 8th. It showed that anaphylaxis reactions were 22 times higher than what the previous CDC report had showed. In this study, on average 1 out of every 4000 people had an anaphylaxis reaction. That is SO much higher than other types of vaccines. Yeah I know they inject you with the epinephrine to save you, but it's still a horrible experience to go through. That is one of the reasons I am leaning towards not getting the vaccine when I become eligable. I have severe allergies with a history of bad reactions to things. I am allergic to penicillin and many medications and have broken out in hives and had my lips swell. So combine that with the fact that I'm at very low Covid risk, and not getting the vaccine can be considered a logical option. I talked with my primary care physician about this a few days ago actually, and she agrees with me. She talked about how I already had Covid and my body handled it easily (very mild symptoms that went away quickly) and that I continue to be at extremely low Covid risk due to much stronger than average heart/lungs and immune system due to the exercise program I'm on, and also that I have to be concerned about the higher amount of anaphylaxis reactions they're seeing with this vaccine since I have severe allergies. So she said I should consult with the allergist if I do consider getting the vaccine and I can weight the risks/benefits, and it's not a big deal if I decide to not get vaccinated since I'm at very low Covid risk and I don't have to worry about my parents since they're vaccinated. So I definitely don't like hearing that people are selfish if they decide to not get vaccinated. There are plenty of people that have legitimate reason to not get vaccinated. People in the low risk group group can make a decision and it's not a big deal because most high risk people will be getting vaccinated. The pandemic will be coming to an end whether the 30% or so of people that are at low Covid risk get vaccinated or not. It will be going to a low level situation (an endemic similar to flu) that will not be a big deal and we'll be able to get back to normal life with a low amount of Covid circulating. The thing that people that are not Covid vaccinated or concerned about other dangerous viruses popping up in the future can do is, simply get into shape. Because we know the studies are absolutely overwhelming on this. You look at a place like Vietnam, where they have a super low 18.3% overweight/obesity rate, and they have only 0.04 Covid deaths per 100,000. While the United States has one of the very highest overweight/obesity rates, 67.9%, and we have 152.49 Covid deaths per 100,000. You can go on and on with examples of countries with high obesity rates vs countries with low obesity rates. The statistics are absolutely overwhelming. Here is a quote from Dr. Tim Lobstein of the World Obesity Federation... "We now know that an overweight population is the next pandemic waiting to happen," said Lobstein. It's very sad that something like this horrific pandemic happened that didn't have to happen if most people kept themselves in shape, but of course tons of people die of heart disease for the same reason. Hopefully more people will take their health seriously in the future.

I'm curious how people that don't want to be vaccinated are being selfish? Anyone that wants to protect themselves by getting vaccinated will be able to. Anyone that's at higher risk of developing severe illness can get vaccinated if they want to. I would assume most of the high risk people will be vaccinated. So if some of the low risk people don't get vaccinated, it's not as if they will be putting more vulnerable people at risk because those people will be protected. These vaccines offer 100% protection against hospitalization. And if a small percentage of higher risk people do not protect themselves by getting vaccinated, that's on them for making a foolish decision. So I'm not sure how lower risk people are being selfish by not getting vaccinated. Anyone else that wants to protect themselves will have the choice to do so. Also, we only need about 70% of people to get vaccinated to end this pandemic. Surveys are saying about that amount plans to get vaccinated. So if there's some level of virus circulating among the 30% of lower risk people that don't get vaccinated, it won't be a big deal. The health care system will not even be close to being overwhelmed. So it makes no sense that some people have a problem with the smaller percentage of people that don't want to get vaccinated. It would be different if these vaccines only offered partial protection against severe illness (hospitalization), but they offer 100% protection. As long as most higher risk people get vaccinated, we will be in good shape. Experts say there will always be a small level of this virus circulating, well after the pandemic. Some of us prefer to put ourselves at very low risk the natural way by keeping ourselves in great shape through diet and exercise. Maybe it doesn't provide 100% protection from hospitalization like a vaccine would, but it reduces the chance of hospitalization to such a tiny chance (a small fraction of 1%) that it's something we don't have to worry about too much. And as long as our older higher risk relatives are protected through vaccination, we don't have to worry about spreading it to them. My parents are vaccinated and protected, so I don't see why I should feel guilty if I choose to not get vaccinated. But there's no question that higher risk people should protect themselves by getting vaccinated. I'm certainly not against the Covid vaccine. I just think low risk people that want to protect themselves the natural way, by keeping themselves in great shape, should have their decision respected. If people don't want to do that and want the vaccine, that's great too.

12z Euro has accumulating snow for the end of the week storm, especially for central-southern NJ. Still something we have to keep an eye on. Euro also gives a little snow for the tuesday event, similar to what 12z NAM is showing.

This is March. It's a wild, volatile month. Snow threats can pop up very quickly this time of year. We have to watch both threats for this coming week. It's most likely that NYC will see little to no snow accumulation this week, but it would be foolish to completely rule out something more significant. March is known for wild swings and snow events that are difficult to predict. And we can dream all we want. Most of us enjoyed the 70 degree weather, but it would be nice to get one last snow event to finish off the season. Especially since NYC is just shy of the 40 inch mark. It would be nice to see NYC get to 40 inches. We just need a small 2 inch snow event to do it.

77 degrees here right now!! You knew temps would overperform today.

We had a very good winter. Now it's time for nice warm weather for outdoor activities. I know you're a big baseball fan, so it always puzzles me when you say you'd want blizzards all year round. Wouldn't that make it difficult for our NY Mets to play baseball? I love snow, but would never want it all year round. Snow November through mid March is very nice, but after that we need the warmer weather for things like outdoor sports and the growing season.

67 degrees here right now!

And you post a lot of great information. We all appreciate it. Obviously a lot of debates here as many disagree about different things about this virus, but obviously we all want this pandemic to end very soon. Getting most people vaccinated should do that. Hopefully this horrific pandemic will be over by the Summer. In the meantime, masking up continues to be extremely important. Hopefully everyone will continue to do that until the pandemic is over.

I don't see anything above about ATHLETES. There's a difference between healthy young people, and people that are actually athlete level. You can be healthy and young, but not an athlete. Getting yourself to athlete level reduces risk a lot more. I had Covid last spring and had very mild symptoms. Just a scratchy throat, a slight headache and a little congestion for a few days. I talked with my cardiologist, and he said the virus has no chance of threatening my life because I have elite althlete heart and lungs. I'll trust that my cardiologist knows what he's talking about. But again, I'm not against the vaccine at all. I realize that most people don't do the exercise to put themselves in the super low risk group, so I encourage most people to get vaccinated. I helped my parents get vaccinated. I was on the computer constantly to get them appointments, and I drove my mother down to Atlantic City Convention Center to get her vaccinated.

But what about healthy young people that get themselves into athlete level shape from exercise? There have been thousands of positive test results in college and pro sports, and you almost never hear of an athlete in the hospital with their life on the line. It seems if you get yourself into great shape (super strong heart, lungs and immune system from intense exercise), the chance of developing severe Covid is pretty much zero. There are a lot of people that are young with no underlying conditions, but are not fit because they don't exercise. I can see how they can be at slightly higher risk, because this virus can take advantage of any weakness. But if you get into tremendous shape, there's very little chance the virus can do anything serious to you. I was talking with my cardiologist about this, and this is exactly what he said. So since I have gotten myself into althlete level shape and am at close to 0% severe Covid risk but also have lots of allergies, I don't feel it's worth it taking the chance with a vaccine that's having some severe allergic reactions.

But I'm saying the grandmother with COPD and co-worker with diabetes and grocery clerk with the immune condition SHOULD get vaccinated. They should be fully protected so it wouldn't matter being around someone who isn't vaccinated. These vaccines offer 100% protection against severe illness. People in those vulnerable groups are eligible for the vaccine right now, while younger people with no underlying conditions are not eligible. If those vulnerable people are not signing up to get the vaccine right now, they're being very foolish.

Did you read the kutv.com article that was posted on the last page? We're seeing more severe anaphylaxis reactions with the Covid vaccines than we've seen with other vaccines from the past, and it's more than what we saw in the rushed Covid trials. Here is the quote from Dr. Tamara Sheffield... "In terms of what is higher than we would see in other vaccines, anaphylaxis is moderately higher," Sheffield said. And some of the stories of what happened to people are downright frightening. Look, I'm not against the Covid vaccine. As I said, I think it's extremely important for all vulnerable groups to get vaccinated. People that have any kind of underlying condition (even very common things like high blood pressure or being overweight) are at much higher risk of developing severe Covid, so it 100% makes sense for them to get the vaccine. I'm just saying for younger to middle aged people that have no underlying conditions at all, it's not as important to get vaccinated because they're super low risk of developing Covid complications. That hockey player is an incredibly rare case, but even he was not in the hospital fighting for his life. He's just fine now. You posted the deaths in younger age groups, but how many of those have underlying conditions? Probably most of them. The statistics show that most young Covid deaths are people with underlying conditions. I'm saying all people with underlying conditions, even the young, should get vaccinated. This vaccine is critical. The only people that seem to have natural strong protection from this horrible virus are younger fit people with no underlying conditions. I can understand people in that group not wanting to take any chance with a vaccine like this one because they're already at such low risk. I happen to be in that group. Normal body weight with no underlying conditions and athlete level fitness due to a lot of exercise. But I also happen to have very bad allergies. I'm allergic to tons of things, including some food allergies. So since I'm at such low Covid risk (in fact I had Covid last Spring and had hardly any symptoms at all) I would be terribly worried about getting a reaction to the vaccine since I have so many allergies and we're hearing that this vaccine is causing more anaphylaxis reactions than other types of vaccines from the past. So I don't feel it's worth the risk for me since I'm already at such low Covid risk. I'm sure you can understand that.

I think it really depends on your Covid risk level. The statistics are overwhelming on who is at high risk and who is at extremely low risk. An obese person with weak heart and lungs is at very high risk of having a bad outcome from Covid. Underlying conditions like high blood presseure, heart disease, diabetes, etc. Statistics show that even just being overweight increases risk. For people in these groups, it's extremely important to be vaccinated. But an athlete that's normal body weight with no underlying health conditions and extremely strong heart and lungs? People like that are at extremely low risk of having Covid complications. In fact a large percentage of people in that category remain asymptomatic when they get Covid. So I think people in that category can avoid being vaccinated and not have to worry. I do think the Covid vaccine is very important, because the majority of people are vulnerable. When you look at overweight/obese and underlying health conditions, at least 75% of people in this country are in that category and vulnerable. So we need to get the majority of people vaccinated. We need about 75% vaccinated to get herd immunity and end the pandemic, so it should work out well if most of the more vulnerable people get vaccinated. But for the people that are in the extremely low risk group, I can understand not wanting to take a chance with the very slight chance of getting the very rare severe reaction to the vaccine. If you do all the hard work (diet and exercise) to put yourself at extremely low Covid risk, it's understandable not wanting to take any risk with a vaccine (even as safe as they are with severe reactions being very rare). But for vulnerable people, getting the vaccine is critical because they're at much higher risk of having a bad Covid outcome than having a bad reaction to the vaccine.

The unhealthy eating is a big part of the problem, but so is the lack of exercise. You can burn a lot of calories with exercise which obviously helps to take off weight. Each mile you run burns about 100 calories, and more than that if you can run at a faster pace. So a good running program can make a huge difference. If you can run 5 miles 5 days a week, you're burning about 2500 calories per week. Personally I burn about 4000 calories each week with the amount of exercise I do. That goes a long way in taking weight off and allows you to not have to be as strict with diet. It's certainly understandable that people don't want to be hungry all the time and not enjoy some unhealthy foods. Exercise does not allow you to eat unhealthy foods all the time obviously, but it does allow you to eat them in moderation. I usually have 2 days each week that I allow myself a decent amount of junk food, and the other 5 days I eat extremely healthy. That 5 healthy and 2 unhealthy system along with lots of exercise works well for me, as I stay on the lower end of the normal weight range. The exercise is really the critical thing in my view. Before I started exercising I was more than 30 pounds heavier, despite my diet being the same as it is now. And the exercise also strengthens the heart, lungs and immune system, which also lowers risk of getting severe Covid. Exercise also causes the body to produce a special antioxidant that helps fight the damaging effect of viruses. I completely agree that it was a huge mistake that health authorities didn't include eating healthier and exercising in the guidelines earlier in the pandemic. Making people realize that getting into shape helps prevent severe Covid would have saved a lot of lives. The odd thing is Dr. Fauci is a health and exercise nut himself, so you'd think he would have wanted to get that message out.

Yeah, the longer range stuff is showing 60 degree potential for the 2nd week of March. Should be a very nice warmup after next weekend's cold shot.

I completely agree with you. Of course you can still get it and pass it on to others that are more vulnerable. Mask wearing, social distancing and getting vaccinated are extremely important. But I also think it's important to let people know that they can also reduce risk of getting severely ill from Covid by exercising and getting into shape. It can be the difference between life or death for some. Anything to reduce risk and help with this pandemic is a good thing.