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winterwx21

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Everything posted by winterwx21

  1. winterwx21
    12z UKMET does give snow. The snow maps on pivoltalweather are high quality and don't count sleet as snow. 12z UKMET is giving us over 6 inches of snow.
  2. winterwx21
    I see 12z UKMET is giving us a lot of snow monday night into tuesday. Just another solution in this difficult setup. Anything from rain to snow to a lot of ice is possible.
  3. winterwx21
    I guess I'm in the minority but I love ice. I don't think there's a more beautiful scene than having trees coated with sparkling ice. It looks spectacular.
  4. winterwx21
    Looks as if Euro does give us several inches of snow before changing to ice tuesday. Obviously a long way to go with this one.
  5. winterwx21
    It looks as if UKMET is the only model giving us a couple inches of snow sunday. Hopefully it's right, but obviously ice looks more likely right now since most other models are showing that.
  6. winterwx21
    I see UKMET gives us a couple inches of snow sunday morning. I wonder if that's a decent possibility, or if it's much more likely to be ice.
  7. winterwx21
    18z NAM gets 3 inches up to north-central NJ. I think the winter weather advisories need to be extended up to Hunterdon, Somerset and Middlesex counties.
  8. winterwx21
    The Euro is now showing 2 to 3 inches up to our area now too. Since a good 2 to 3 inches of snow looks likely now, I would think the winter weather advisories will be extended north to north-central NJ and the NYC area later this afternoon.
  9. winterwx21
    2 to 3 inches for the NYC area on the UKMET. Not bad. I think most of us would be happy with that amount for this type of event. Hopefully the Euro comes north like everything else did tonight.
  10. winterwx21
    Yep, this GGEM run is mostly snow rather than sleet. Hopefully the weekend storm trends more towards snow, rather than ice.
  11. winterwx21
    Keeping the door open was wise, as we know these things tend to bump north as they get closer.
  12. winterwx21
    And a nice little bump north on 0z NAM. Gets 2 inches up to my area now, after the 18z run had almost nothing. Maybe our thursday morning light accumulating snow event is looking more likely now.
  13. winterwx21
    18z RGEM using Kuchera does get 2 to 3 inches of snow up to north-central NJ, NYC and LI for thursday morning. HRRR and GFS are pretty close too, having our area on the edge of the accumulating snow with an inch or so. It's hard to like this potential event right now with Euro and NAM south. Still enough time though, and hopefully those models will start a north trend tonight. With the very cold air in place, we would have good snow ratios and obviously no problems with the snow sticking. So I wouldn't give up hope for this potential event yet. North trend often works out.
  14. winterwx21
    The Canadian gives a prolonged period of sleet and freezing rain with the weekend storm. Long way to go on that one.
  15. winterwx21
    Looks as if our overrunning event might be falling apart, but still plenty of time for it to trend back in the right direction.
  16. winterwx21
    Pretty significant south shift from its ridiculously warm 12z run. Still not enough as it keeps the 1 inch of snow line slightly north of NYC, but another shift like this on the 0z run tonight would put NYC in the game. This certainly gives hope that there's at least a slight chance that RGEM is right with the snowy solution.
  17. winterwx21
    So you're pretty sure the RGEM is wrong then. We can still hope for the slight chance that it's right though.
  18. winterwx21
    12z Euro still misses us to the south with this event. Hopefully the other models are right about us getting a few inches thursday morning, but who knows with the Euro not on board.
  19. winterwx21
    Looks as if GGEM brushes us with a couple inches of snow wednesday night. Hopefully this won't be a miss to the south like last night's Euro showed. Not a big storm but could be a decent advisory level event wednesday night into thursday morning.
  20. winterwx21
    It's definitely puzzling how warm NAM is. Hopefully RGEM has the right idea. Really tough to make a forecast right now with RGEM giving NYC 4 inches of snow while NAM gives nothing at all.
  21. winterwx21
    12z NAM is a decent hit for thursday morning with several inches of snow. Looks as if snow could come in as early as wednesday night.
  22. winterwx21
    Interesting that 12z NAM came in warm, but 12z RGEM just came in much colder. Watched the color loop and the darker blues get down to north central NJ and NYC. It looks as if it gets a few inches of snow all the way down to NYC, and has very significant amounts for northern NJ. Difficult forecast with such a huge difference between NAM and RGEM. Hopefully they will come together at 18z.
  23. winterwx21
    Yeah, close to 6 inches here. The back edge of the snow is almost here, so we'll be finishing up with about 6 inches.
  24. winterwx21
    They start very cold in the 20s, but how long it stays cold enough depends on what model you look at. Tonight's Euro, as Anthony showed in the February thread, gives the entire area a LOT of snow thursday afternoon into thursday night. For today's event, the Euro is still giving the NYC area a solid 4 inches of snow.
  25. winterwx21
    0z GFS gives the NYC area a few inches of snow thursday before mixing, but much higher amounts to the north where it takes much longer to change over.
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