winterwx21

I don't think we can say anyone busted or scored a victory, considering what a strange situation we have going on right now. It's not very often that NYC and parts of Long Island are below freezing with freezing rain while a good part of northern and north-central NJ is above freezing with plain rain. For part of the area it's a serious situation while for another part of the area it's a big nothing.

Lee Goldberg was just talking about what an unusual situation it is, with NYC below freezing while a good part of northern NJ is above freezing with plain rain. This is something we very rarely see, but some of the short range models did a good job picking up on the idea of cold air draining down into NYC but not areas just west of the city. I am still 36 with plain rain here.

An all plain rain event for our area. Still 37 degrees here.

We really got unlucky with that big storm earlier in January where Atlantic City got 13 inches while we got nothing. It would have been a great snow month for us had that storm hit us. Instead it was just a pretty good snow month with 2 moderate snowstorms hitting our area. I know a different story for the Jersey shore and Long Island, since they got huge amounts from that last storm.

50 degrees here right now. The warmest day we've had in a long time. A lot of melting.

GGEM, on the other hand, is much warmer with mainly plain rain.

12z Euro just came in warmer with a rain event, but obviously a long way to go.

It definitely can be frustrating. And I am a little frustrated that we missed out on the really big totals that the Jersey shore and Long Island are getting, but I'm still happy with this storm. It's not as if we got a small advisory level event. It was a solid warning level event here. 7 inches is a significant amount of snow. Not bad at all. After missing 2 other snowstorms to the south this month, I'm glad we didn't miss out on this one.

Thanks for the update on that. Your 7.25 is just about the same as the measurement I just got here. Still coming down decently here -- high end light snow, but the back edge is getting close. I'm probably going to end up a little over 7 and a half inches. Close to what we were expecting last night.

It's picking up a little bit here again as we get closer to the back edge. I think most amounts in Middlesex County will be between 6 and 8. I have a little over 7 here.

The snowfall rates have picked up a bit here again. Low end moderate I'd say here right now. The back edge isn't too far away though. Maybe we pick up another half inch? Ending up between 7 and 8 looks reasonable but of course it varies a little from town to town. Some in Middlesex county will be closer to 6 while some get 7 to 8.

We definitely have quite a bit more than 4 considering the size of the drifts. At least 6. Measuring is very difficult obviously. I actually have us close to 7 now but it's tough to be exact. RU848789 is in Metuchen (not too far away) and he is excellent at measuring, and reported 6 and a quarter inches a couple hours ago. So I think I'm pretty close with the near 7 measurement I had a little while ago. Too bad we missed the much bigger amounts, but this is still a very nice warning level storm for our area. We have a couple more hours of snow to go too.

It's not heavy, but a steady moderate snow. Radar actually looks pretty good. Could have a few more hours of light to moderate snow. We're approaching 7 inches now, so I think we have a good chance of getting to 8. About what we were expecting. A nice storm.

I agree. 6 to 10 inches is a very nice and significant storm. It was very frustrating that we completely missed 2 other snowstorms to the south this month. I'm just happy that we're not going to miss it this time.

Yeah this Euro run really isn't showing amounts much different than we were expecting. We know that you have to go well east of the city to get a blockbuster storm. A good 7 or 8 inches for our area is still a very nice storm.

Yeah the Kuchera ratio map is showing about 10 inches more for Long Island than the 10:1 map. 3 feet instead of 2 feet. Obviously Kuchera is not taking into account that the wind would mess up the ratios. Although I think it would still be slightly better than 10:1.

Not bad at all. I'd certainly sign for what this Euro run is showing. Just give me a nice 5-6 inch snowstorm and I'll be happy. This combined with what NAM/RGEM are showing gives me more confidence that we're in decent shape for a moderate snowstorm.

RGEM is a very good model, so it's big that we have it on our side. I'm feeling good about this event.

It still gets a few inches all the way back to western NJ. The really big storm idea seems to be falling apart, but hopefully we can at least pull off something like RGEM is showing. Several inches would at least be a decent snow event.

Yeah, this run showing a lot less snow for NYC than last night's run. Still a decent storm on this run, but we can't like the trends.

About a 6 inch storm for the NYC area on the RGEM, far less than NAM. Still a little early to take models like RGEM and NAM very seriously though.

I was so into that game that I didn't even realize it was snowing. Nice little quarter inch coating here.

I see 12z GGEM is giving areas just slightly to the northwest of NYC a significant snowstorm late tuesday, and changes the city over to snow for a few hours at the end with a couple inches. I assume GGEM is off on this though. This scenario doesn't seem very realistic for the reasons you stated.

It did finally bail, although even last night's 0z Nam did give central NJ close to 2 inches of snow. RGEM actually correctly picked up that areas to the north would get slightly more than areas to the south due to the colder temps. RGEM outperformed NAM big-time with this event.

Thanks for posting this .... great info. I've noticed that RGEM has been excellent the last several years. It's usually the model I trust the most with snow amounts.