winterwx21

Mount Holly going with a 2 to 4 forecast. Looks reasonable. Snow ratios being a little better than 10:1 helps, so I might lean more towards the 4 than the 2.

I know long range HRRR should be taken with a grain of salt, but for the last event that missed us to the south we never had HRRR on our side. It kept showing the accumulations staying to our south. Hopefully the fact that 12z HRRR is showing significant snow for our area is a good sign.

Both 12z GGEM and 12z Euro would be a nice moderate snow event for our area. With the concern of the progressive pattern, hopefully this won't keep trending south and end up being a miss for us.

RGEM did a good job. It consistently showed the significant snow staying just to our south, but wasn't ridiculously far south early on like the NAM was. I've always found RGEM to be a very good model.

Nice all snow event thursday night into friday morning on the 12z GGEM run that just came out. Let's hope that's correct.

60 degrees here right now. I just went for a run outside with a t-shirt on, and it's possible I could be shoveling snow tomorrow. A Colorado-like weather swing that's becoming much more common for our area.

I'd gladly take the few inches that Euro is showing for our area, even though it would be a little frustrating that the really big amounts miss us to the south. Hopefully the NAM is incorrect about having the accumulations much more to the south.

If you go with the NAM we get nothing at all. Not even a coating to an inch. But maybe something like what 12z RGEM is showing will happen, with our area on the northern fringe and getting brushed by a coating to an inch. Hard to be optimistic about more than that right now. When you have only 1 major model on your side, you certainly don't want it to be GFS. But stranger things have happened, so we still have a slight chance.

12z Euro gets a little accumulating snow up to Cape May County NJ. Close to an inch for the southern part of the county. Looks like a longshot for us, but it's close enough that we still have to keep a close eye on it. We have a slight chance.

We had about 40 last winter.

64 degrees here right now.

The period from this saturday to the following saturday is gonna be insane. High temps in the 50s and 60s pretty much every day, except for maybe upper 40s on sunday. A few days (this saturday and next thursday and friday) with temps WELL up into the 60s likely too. One of the warmest 1 week periods in mid December history.

Looking better if you like the colder but much weaker scenario. Right now most models are painting a picture of light snow with a coating to an inch or so. We'll see if this continues to change.

Yeah, same here. We had a pretty good snow shower between 1:30 and 2 in the morning. Came down moderately for a little while and coated colder surfaces. Nice to see the first little accumulation of the season. Glad I was up late to see it.

12z Euro gives most of the area a coating to an inch of snow sunday morning too. Looking as if we have a decent chance of seeing our first light accumulation sunday morning.

Instead of sunday night into monday, it's looking as if sunday morning is our best shot to see a little accumulating snow. 12z RGEM gives a lot of the area a coating to an inch of snow sunday morning. Hopefully that will work out.

Yeah we usually go a few degrees above forecast whenever there's full sunshine. 70 degrees was no surprise today. Several days ago I said I thought we'd hit it today. It's actually 71 here right now.

70 degrees here. Absolutely beautiful day.

Yeah, which has killed the sensitive plants like tomatoes of course. But the cold hardy vegetables are still fine. I just looked at the lettuce and it still looks fine. We've dropped to the upper 20s, but it takes several hours in the mid 20s to kill the cold hardy vegetables. So the gardening season in our area still isn't completely over.

Looks as if we have a good chance of seeing 70 degrees thursday with the surge of warm air ahead of the front. Probably our last warm day for quite awhile with the blocking setting up for late November.

Had a lot of pea sized hail here. Only a little bit of thunder and not too much wind, but extremely heavy rain and the most hail I've seen in quite awhile. Nice storm.

71 here. Beautiful.

67 degrees here right now, and not a cloud in the sky. Spectacular weather.

After surviving the light frost tuesday and wednesday night, the sensitive plants in my vegetable garden got destroyed by the freeze last night. We got down to 30. End of the growing season for sensitive plants, but more hardy things like lettuce can go on for awhile as you said. Broccoli sometimes goes on until early December here. So I don't really consider the growing season over until we get a very hard freeze that destroys the more hardy plants.

Yeah, and I don't think the temp even got below freezing right where I am. When I went to bed at 1am, I looked at weather stations around the area and the temps mostly ranged from 33 to 37. I was at 37 here. Obviously the ones that were down to 33 already at 1am went below freezing, but the ones that were still 37 might not have reached freezing. It probably got down to about 33 here which would explain why my plants were barely touched. It'll be interesting to see if they can survive again tonight and tomorrow night. It might be a little bit colder. And of course when we talk growing season, we're talking about the more sensitive plants. I have more hardy things out there like lettuce, broccoli and raspberries. It takes a hard freeze to damage those plants. They will likely continue for a few more weeks. Sometimes they go into very late November.