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winterwx21

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Everything posted by winterwx21

  1. winterwx21
    I was so into that game that I didn't even realize it was snowing. Nice little quarter inch coating here.
  2. winterwx21
    I see 12z GGEM is giving areas just slightly to the northwest of NYC a significant snowstorm late tuesday, and changes the city over to snow for a few hours at the end with a couple inches. I assume GGEM is off on this though. This scenario doesn't seem very realistic for the reasons you stated.
  3. winterwx21
    It did finally bail, although even last night's 0z Nam did give central NJ close to 2 inches of snow. RGEM actually correctly picked up that areas to the north would get slightly more than areas to the south due to the colder temps. RGEM outperformed NAM big-time with this event.
  4. winterwx21
    Thanks for posting this .... great info. I've noticed that RGEM has been excellent the last several years. It's usually the model I trust the most with snow amounts.
  5. winterwx21
    A little frustrating, but certainly not a shock. We've seen this many times before where rain changing to snow behind a cold front doesn't work out. Last night's RGEM gave our area only a quarter to half inch of snow, so the writing was on the wall. GFS not surprisingly did a horrendous job with the snow amounts, and NAM did a bad job too.
  6. winterwx21
    Just a light coating on colder surfaces here. Good job by RGEM yesterday saying this would be only a coating to an inch for most. I often talk about what a good model RGEM is, and it showed it again. Terrible job by GFS, NAM and HRRR with the higher amounts they showed.
  7. winterwx21
    GFS looks way overdone. Euro is saying this is a 1 inch snowfall. RGEM is just a coating to 1 inch, and NAM really cut back. A lot of evidence tonight that this event is going to be smaller than we had hoped.
  8. winterwx21
    I've found RGEM to be a very good model, but we'll see. I'm certainly rooting to see more snow tomorrow. Would love to see 3 inches with it accumulating on pavement well, but right now I'm thinking more like 1 inch mostly on colder surfaces. Hopefully I'm wrong.
  9. winterwx21
    Are you kidding? RGEM is a more skilled short range model.
  10. winterwx21
    RGEM more likely to be right than GFS, but you never know for sure. We can hope.
  11. winterwx21
    0z RGEM looks terrible. This is rain changing to snow too, so we're dealing with a warm wet ground at the start. Light snow like RGEM is showing isn't gonna cut it. This is really starting to look like a non event. I was hoping some of those earlier NAM and HRRR runs were a good sign, but it appears not. This is looking like maybe an inch on colder surfaces.
  12. winterwx21
    HRRR looks similar to NAM. I know HRRR is more useful very close to events rather than longer range, but the 18z run gives most of the area a solid 3 inches. Hopefully it's onto something here.
  13. winterwx21
    Yeah CMC gets a little snow to coastal Virginia and that's it. If Euro backs down at 1pm, we'll know we're in trouble with this threat.
  14. winterwx21
    Nice snow shower going on here right now, but not accumulating with the temp at 36.
  15. winterwx21
    CMC gets snow up to southern NJ friday night. Close. Will be interesting to see what Euro shows in a little while.
  16. winterwx21
    Picked up 1 inch of snow here before it changed to rain. At least we got a little front end snow. Looked nice out there before the rain washed it away.
  17. winterwx21
    I see 0z Euro is back to giving us a snowstorm for saturday. The heavier snow misses us just to the south on this run, but it's a good look this early. The position of the ridge out west gives us a decent chance with this threat.
  18. winterwx21
    It's very frustrating that we're missing an opportunity with the sunday night into monday storm, but consistent cold weather means chances are very high that we'll see more snow in the next couple weeks. It would be pretty difficult to have a cold 2nd half of January and not get any snow out of it. Obviously it can happen, but it would take very bad luck.
  19. winterwx21
    This Euro run is a little colder than last night's run. You don't have to go far northwest of NYC to get major snow on this run. NYC is right near the edge.
  20. winterwx21
    I agree with you. Considering the magnitude of the arctic air in place over the weekend, I'd be surprised if there isn't a decent little front end thump for the NYC area. I expect models to adjust a little colder with the storm as we get closer, even with a bad track. But of course it would change to rain and most of the snow would get washed away.
  21. winterwx21
    Yeah usually a snowless December during a La Nina means a terrible winter ahead, but it's not a typical La Nina pattern this year. Nice looking pattern ahead.
  22. winterwx21
    Not bad that the models have a storm missing us to the south that's 6 days away. North trend happens often. We have a decent chance.
  23. winterwx21
    Ended up with 5.5" here. Very nice storm.
  24. winterwx21
    12z RGEM is 3 to 4 inches for most, but has a nice 6 inch band for the coastal counties of NJ.
  25. winterwx21
    Mount Holly going with a 2 to 4 forecast. Looks reasonable. Snow ratios being a little better than 10:1 helps, so I might lean more towards the 4 than the 2.
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