winterwx21

http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html It's just like watching the futurecast (precip types, timing and movement) that you see on tv weathercasts, only it's the Canadian models instead. For the first 48 hours it shows the RGEM, and then at hour 49 it switches to the GGEM and goes out to day 5. You just have to hit animate. Very good tool.

Yeah the GGEM gives a long period of sleet after the 3 to 4 inches of snow. I just watched the color loop and it gives our area sleet for about 7 hours, before the change to rain.

And people overestimate snow getting washed away too. Yeah an inch or two will get washed away, but it's rare for 5 or 6 inches to get completely washed away unless it's VERY warm during the rain. Usually the snow absorbs a lot of the water and becomes very heavy.

Even with that though, we would have one nice highlight if we can get a 3 to 6 inch snowfall before the change to sleet and rain with tuesday's storm. GGEM and UKMET look pretty good.

Is anyone watching the first wave for sunday night into monday morning? 0z NAM and GGEM give southern NJ some decent snow accumulations. I wouldn't ignore this first wave, even though the tuesday storm has bigger potential. We just need a little trend north.

Even with GFS' cutter solution tonight, it still showed a 1 to 3 inch snow before the change to rain. GGEM showed 3 to 5 inches. I think too many people are giving up too early on this one. Even if it isn't an all out snowstorm, it could be a front end dump type of storm.

So much for the inch or so of snow that we were supposed to get here in northern Middlesex. Just some wet flakes. This disappointing winter continues.

No I was talking the regular NAM. I looked at both snowmaps of 18z NAM on Pivotalweather. The 10:1 ratio map gave our area 1.5 to 2 inches and the Kuchera ratio gave us about 1 inch.

Not quite nada. 18z NAM gave our area about 1 inch of snow.

That's true, but most aren't looking at it that way because that snowstorm was a freak event in mid November. We've had pretty much no snow at all during met winter and it's almost February. Let's hope we can at least pull out a little 1 to 2 inch snow tuesday night.

The arctic blast for late next week is really starting to look intense. It could be almost as cold as the one we just had, but longer lasting. Such an irritating pattern to get a big rainstorm in between brutal arctic blasts. I hope the calls for a snowy February pan out.

The models are showing it getting very cold starting wednesday next week. Several days in a row with high temps only in the 20s. Let's hope we can get some snow out of that cold pattern. Right now it looks cold/dry but it's longer range, so hopefully the models will pick up on something.

Yes the snowmap on Pivotalweather shows only about 3 inches for the city.

And the 12z GGEM does still manage to give most of the area a 4 to 6 inch snowfall.

December did deliver already with the advertised great pattern. We just got unlucky. North Carolina saw a historic snowstorm. It takes a great pattern/setup for something like that to happen in December. We just got very unlucky that the confluence was too strong to let it come up the coast. Maybe the last week of the month will deliver for us.

He is terrible, but of course there are quite a few terrible weathercasters in this area. The only ones I like are Lee Goldberg, Jeff Smith, Nick Gregory and Craig Allen.

Right now the models are showing that as a warm rainy storm. I don't know what G is seeing to make him think it could be a cold storm, and to put up a mix map this early is absurd. Cold does come in behind that storm. Should get pretty cold late next week. Hopefully that cold will set us up for a storm, before we go back to a warmer pattern again around the 10th.

GFS still has the early part of the first week of December warm, and then brings in the cold on the 5th. It still might get cold during the 1st week of December, but not until later in the week.

Today's 12z run of GFS shows it warm for the first few days of the 1st week of December, and then cools it off wednesday-thursday. No snow chances on this run. But obviously it's way too far out to take seriously.

I wouldn't mind a break in the cold pattern for the week of December 2nd, since that's the big week (6 day firearm season) of the deer hunting season. Not much fun sitting up in a tree in freezing cold weather. Then let it get cold/snowy after that week. But who knows ... long range is very hard to predict. For quite awhile we kept hearing the 1st week of December looked cold and ripe for a snowstorm, and now suddenly we're hearing talk of warmth. Could easily switch back to cold on the models soon. Still too far out.

Looks as if the changeover is happening a little earlier than that. I just changed over to mostly sleet. I have 5 inches and I think that's going to be about it, now that it's sleeting. Still a very nice overperformer.

So that snow map he posted is useless. The Pivotalweather one should be posted.

Very odd because the 12z NAM snow map on Pivotalweather is showing about 1 inch of snow for northern Jersey, where this one is showing 6 to 10. Is it because this one counts sleet as snow?

A lot of models have the rain coming in well before midnight now. Looks to me as if rain starts around 9 to 10pm friday night and tapers off late morning saturday.

Woke up at 3am and took a quick look at the thermometer, and it was 35 degrees. But the tomato plants and other vegetable plants in the garden look fine, so I guess we just barely avoided a frost last night. Let the growing season continue. We'll see if we can just barely avoid it again sunday night.