winterwx21

The Giants deserve credit for playing very well, but they were playing the worst 13 win team ever last week. The Vikings had many games where they just barely beat mediocre to bad teams during the season. They were actually -3 on point differential during the season, so obviously they were extremely lucky to win 13 games. No surprise that they were 1 and done in the playoffs.

Not the RGEM. It just came in warm with no snow for us. Starts us out as rain. Remember what NAM did at hour 84 for tonight's storm. It started out showing us getting a snowstorm, while RGEM was very warm and all rain. RGEM ended up schooling NAM on tonight's storm, just like it has schooled NAM on most events the last few years. I'm guessing RGEM will be right again and we get no measurable snow wednesday. I'm not saying we can completely rule out the possibility of getting a small front end like some other models have. Is it possible to get an inch of slop that quickly gets washed away by the heavy rain wednesday night? Sure. But I think it's more likely that we'll get no accumulation. Temps are going to be above freezing, the ground is warm and the precip is coming in during the afternoon hours. It's going to have to snow heavily for a couple hours to get a decent coating on colder surfaces with that bad setup. Not impossible but knowing how everything else has ended up this winter, I'm guessing no accumulation.

Back to warm temps and rain at the end of the month on the Euro. So much for our better pattern late in the month. Nothing ever works out this winter. Time to enjoy this big football weekend and not waste any more time looking at these hopeless model runs.

I agree. I would be very skeptical of any model run that gives us an inch or so of front end snow. With the temps and warm ground, it would probably be just a little non accumulating wet snow during the afternoon.

Yeah Euro and CMC both say we have a shot at breaking the record. Hardly any front end snow on those models.

12z Euro has hardly any front end snow for us. Maybe a slushy coating on colder surfaces at best, and then heavy rain wednesday night.

Maybe an inch of slop that quickly gets washed away by rain. 12z CMC and GFS say it won't even be that much. The models also give us some rain at the end of the month, the time period in which we were supposed to be in a cold window. All you can do is laugh at this point. This winter is that bad.

Keep in mind that's a 10:1 ratio map. A Kuchera ratio map would show quite a bit less, since snow ratios won't be good with this storm.

Ugly 12z runs of CMC and EURO for the midweek storm. Both show a cutter with rain even well to the northwest. CMC doesn't even give any front end snow, while Euro gives just a little bit slightly to the northwest of NYC and then a quick changeover to rain. I think this storm is gonna end up like all our other storms in this miserable winter.

I see NAM finally woke up. The 12z run doesn't have any snow for NYC and you have to go well NW to see any accumulation. RGEM is a much better model than NAM and this was another example of that.

0z RGEM still showing all rain. Not even any snow for extreme northwest NJ on the RGEM. Even if a compromise happens between NAM and RGEM, the NYC area wouldn't get any snow. I'll be shocked if this one works out, but we'll keep an eye on it just in case the NAM is onto something.

It rains in NYC on 0z NAM, but it changes the rain over to snow and manages to give NYC a few inches monday morning. We know how unlikely that is. NAM will probably come to reality tomorrow.

This winter is so bad that getting an inch from a clipper would be thrilling at this point.

Probably NAM being terrible in its long range like usual. RGEM at hour 84 is much warmer than this. RGEM has been a much better model than NAM in recent years.

Good chance both of these events won't work out for NYC, and then just cold/dry for several days after that before a big warmup in early February. Slight chance next wednesday will work out or that we'll score something during the cold window late month, but I'm thinking it's more likely we'll get to mid February without an inch of snow for NYC. That would be off the charts horrible.

Euro also came in warmer for the wednesday storm. This 0z run doesn't have the front end dump for NYC that the 12z run had. Mostly rain for NYC and you have to go to northwest NJ to get some accumulating snow on this run.

0z Euro doesn't look good for sunday night either. You have to go way NW. Maybe a couple inches for Sussex county. What we're seeing tonight isn't a surprise ... this event hasn't looked good for awhile.

CMC pretty warm for the midweek storm as well. We'll have to see if Euro holds with the colder solution tonight.

Yeah the Euro gives even NYC a decent front end dump. I'm guessing it will trend warmer like all our other storms have, but it's a week away and at least we can say we have slight hope for that one.

It just hit 58 here! I'm going to go for a run outside with a t-shirt on. Love it!

12z Euro too warm for the NYC area sunday, but has a decent snowfall for northwest NJ.

Euro still very warm for the sunday night storm. Only extreme NW New Jersey gets a little bit of snow before changing over to heavy rain on the run. It's also showing a warm cutter for the mid next week storm.

Yeah the 0z CMC gives northwest NJ 1 to 2 inches of snow before changing to rain. All rain for NYC. Problem is there just isn't much cold air in place. NW areas could get away with that and see a little front end snow, but I doubt the NYC area can. I see the same problem for the mid next week storm. I think we're gonna have to wait until the pattern changes and we actually have cold air in place in very late January before we have a better chance, but of course we'll keep an eye on the 2 storms before the colder pattern because you never know for sure at this range.

Bump.

Maybe you should try to remember the post you made on page 17 where you said you're rooting for the major cities to get less than 5 inches of snow this winter. That sure sounded like you giving up on this winter, so you don't have any room to be criticizing other people that have been honest about how bleak the situation is this winter.