winterwx21
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Everything posted by winterwx21
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Don't forget to use Kuchera and not include the small amount of snow it's showing for saturday. This CMC run is showing maybe an inch or two of snow for Long Island and slightly north of NYC. It's mainly sleet.
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12z CMC is sleet changing to rain for our area.
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Yeah not one time has it worked out for us this winter when the models showed a borderline situation for the NYC area. They always have trended warmer, so it's hard to be encouraged about this threat. I would want to see some real cold air in place with the models showing snow to the south, instead of NYC being near the edge. Hopefully something will work out in early March (the pattern does look a little better), but I'll be surprised if this one works out. Right now it looks like an event for north and west of NYC. We certainly need to keep an eye on it though, just in case. Can't rule it out yet.
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Euro does give us a coating saturday. UKMET continues to be the model that's most impressed, giving a lot of the area around an inch of snow. Definitely worth watching since it will be cold enough saturday.
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Rain-sleet-snow mix here. 40 degrees.
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Saturday might be weak sauce, but we've had nothing other than a light coating all winter. So even a small 1 to 2 inch snow event would seem decent at this point. UKMET is the only model that gives us that right now, but 12z Euro did show improvement. It now gets accumulating snow to southern NJ saturday after last night's run had nothing. There's plenty of time for this to trend towards this being a decent light snow event for our area. It's a very rare situation this winter in which we actually have cold enough air for accumulating snow, so I'm interested even though it looks like a light event at best.
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Yeah the CMC is a coating to an inch for saturday evening. UKMET actually just came in pretty good for saturday. A solid 1 to 3 inch event on 12z UKMET. Hopefully Euro will come aboard. We finally have cold enough air if we can get some moisture in here late saturday. This looks like NYC's best chance to see an inch of snow in this joke of a winter.
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62 degrees here right now. Beautiful afternoon. I'm going outside with a t-shirt on right now. Amazing how often I've been able to do that this winter.
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I think we still need to watch saturday night. Models have most of the precip missing us to the south, but it's a rare time this winter in which it's actually cold enough for snow if we can get some precip in here. 12z CMC and UKMET do get a little light snow in here. Euro misses to the south but would only need a slight bump north to give us some snow. It would be a light event, but I'll take anything I can get in this pathetic winter.
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Sadly it's all we have in this pathetic winter. Tracking a slight chance of getting a small amount of snow.
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He's talking about next weekend. The Euro shows the city and LI getting brushed by a little snow from a late developer. CMC has a little light snow for the weekend as well. The fact that this trended south and weaker/colder might not be a bad thing at this range. Next weekend is probably still a longshot for accumulating snow for us, but it's something to keep an eye on.
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Not saying I'm that optimistic. I just think it's at least a slightly better chance than we've had. I never believed the middle of next week or any of the other teases that the models showed this winter. This is the first time I feel we have a little better chance of seeing a front end thump event because of more significant cold air coming in ahead of the storm, but at this early point I think it's best to be skeptical. I'm just saying a slightly better chance. It's something to watch.
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12z Euro still shows snow for us next saturday. It's cold enough for accumulating snow even down the southern NJ coast, so this is why I say we have a little better chance of a front end thump this time. Right now the models are showing much colder air than we've had at the start of all our other storms. Obviously a lot of time for this to trend worse though.
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The difference this time is the models are showing colder air than the other times that they teased us with front end dumps. Right now they're cold enough to start it as snow even well south of the city. The other times they showed it borderline for the city. With those other teases right away I said I thought we had no chance, but this time I think we have a little better chance. Hopefully the models are right about the magnitude of the cold air coming in next friday, which would set us up for some front end snow. Obviously it isn't a great setup and it would probably be a changeover event, but at least it appears there's a better chance of front end snow this time. However a better chance still doesn't mean a great chance. Still have to be skeptical and there's a long way to go.
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It poured for 1 minute as that extremely narrow squall line came through.
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I see the CMC also brings in some snow for next saturday. Right now the models are saying it will be cold enough for some front end snow even south of NYC, but of course it's very early.
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Way too early for me to be optimistic, but last night's Euro gave us snow next saturday and now GFS is doing the same. At least it appears that we have some cold air coming in the end of next week, so unlike all other events this winter maybe this one wouldn't be doomed to be too warm. Something to keep an eye on. A skeptical eye of course since nothing has worked out this winter.
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It's weakening as it's coming in, so probably only around a tenth of an inch this afternoon.
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Another warm cutter next week, and then some cold air comes in next friday. We can hope that sets us up for some snow next weekend, as 12z CMC is showing. The models have been wrong every time they've shown snow at this range, so of course we'd have to say this is a longshot. But my goodness, you'd think something would work out at some point. Incredibly difficult to go an entire winter without 1 event. Whether it's next weekend or sometime in March, I hope we can at least pull off an advisory level event.
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If we're gonna have a warm pattern with no hope of snow, we might as well have some blowtorch days like today. Absolutely beautiful. I love that I can go running outside this afternoon with just a t-shirt on. GFS and Euro have rain for next week. Anytime the models show a little hope for the medium range, it quickly falls apart. Just the same thing over and over again this winter. We might go the whole winter without 1 snow event. But having said that, it obviously is extremely difficult to go the whole winter without 1 snow event. Even in the warmest winters we usually get something. You'd think we'd pull off something just on freak luck at some point, so it wouldn't be surprising if we see an event at the end of the month or in March. I hope we can at least pull off 1 decent snow event. As much as I love this warm weather, I still want to see some snow.
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68 degrees here! What a day. Spectacular.
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Yeah it's certainly possible that it would be ok. Broccoli can take a pretty good freeze. But an extremely hard freeze (like North and West described) can damage it, so to be safe I usually wait until late March to put broccoli plants in. Mid March at the earliest if there are absolutely no signs of a cold shot coming.
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59 degrees here. Beautiful day.
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Obviously this horrendous winter can't be saved at this point, but yeah I hope we can somehow pull off 1 snow event. Would be horrible to go the entire winter without 1 decent snow event. I'm not very optimistic, but hopefully we can pull something off in early March.
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I did some cleaning up of the garden too today and noticed the same thing. Incredible. It feels like I should be starting the vegetable garden with cool weather vegetables like lettuce and broccoli, but of course we have to wait until late March for that.
