winterwx21

Too early to say it looks like an all out snowstorm. GFS is a nice snowstorm, but other models aren't as impressive and show just a light snow accumulation getting washed away by rain. 12z EURO is just a 1 to 2 inch snowfall for NYC and nearby areas, and then rain. You have to go well to the NW to get a 3 to 5 inch snowfall according to today's EURO. But we have a long way to go, so hopefully it'll improve. It's very likely going to change to rain, but strength and position of the high to the north will determine whether it's a light accumulation washed away by plenty of rain or a more significant accumulation that won't be totally washed away by some rain towards the end.

Yeah, 12z GGEM is mostly rain for NYC. Pattern is just in the process of improving, so it might not be good enough yet to prevent a big cutter and mostly rain. Maybe high pressure will be strong enough to give us a decent front end dump though. Obviously still way too early to know. Precip looks to come in friday night, so I think we'll start getting a better idea tuesday night when we get to the 3 day range.

GFS now has a big warmup in late January (around the 23rd) after a transient cold shot. But who knows, very long range is so tough to predict. It wasn't long ago that we thought there would be a very long period of warm weather in mid to late January, but now it's turning out to be only a 6 day warm period as the cold comes back late next week. So who knows about very long range. At least we know we have a decent window for wintry weather towards next weekend into early the following week. But beyond that, who knows.

Sleep is very important for health. I can understand losing sleep during the rare occasions when we're looking at a major snowstorm, but it's not worth it losing sleep over a potential snow event that would be minor at best. I hope you can stop doing this, for your health's sake.

Took awhile to reach the ground, but we did have some moderate snow. Light snow right now. Pretty out there with a light coating on colder surfaces. Maybe we can squeeze out a half inch.

Yeah it really is having a hard time reaching the ground. Radar echoes say I have moderate snow right now, but I don't even have a flurries falling. Too bad some of this decent band is being wasted by the dry air.

18z NAM is actually showing a few inches of snow for the coast tuesday afternoon/evening. Other models aren't as cold, but something to keep an eye on.

The problem is it's going to be 40 degrees on tuesday. Even if it comes in as wet snow rather than rain near the coast, it would likely be non accumulating snow or a light accumulation on colder surfaces at best. It looks like an event for well to the north and west rather than near the coast. Very borderline airmass, as the colder air doesn't come in until behind the storm. Wednesday will be colder and windy.

The problem is the airmass will be very borderline. The colder air doesn't really come in until after the event on wednesday. So if there ends up being some mix or snow with light accumulations, it would probably be an event for well to the north and west on tuesday into tuesday night. Most likely rain or some mix and non accumulating snow near the coast. Wednesday looks like a cold windy day. A decent shot of cold air before the much talked about big warm pattern settles in friday.

18z NAM Kuchera shows maybe a half inch of snow at most. You can't look at those ridiculous maps that count ice as snow.

The NAM Kuchera map shows barely a half inch of snow even for extreme northern NJ. It's a sleet/freezing rain event on the NAM.

I would use kuchera, and the 12z NAM kuchera map is showing only 1 inch for NYC. RGEM kuchera is better with close to 3 inches. Overall 1 to 2 mainly on colder surfaces still looks like the best call. BTW 12z HRRR looks really bad except for Long Island, but we're not in good HRRR range yet so hopefully it's off.

RGEM continues to look much better than NAM. 0z RGEM Kuchera is 3 to 4 inches for a lot of the area. I would go with more like 1 to 2 on colder surfaces for a prediction though.

Right now most models are showing temps falling to about the same level as what we had for last week's event. But it's early and let's hope this continues to trend better. Maybe we can get a period of very heavy snow that causes major dynamic cooling. I don't rule out the possibility of our area getting more significant accumulations, but right now I believe it's more likely to be light accumulations mainly on colder surfaces. We'll see.

Probably because this will likely just be an event for colder surfaces. It's going to be in the 60s on tuesday with rain so roads are going to be VERY warm and wet. Very difficult to get much accumulation on roads that are retaining warmth and when temps are barely down to freezing. The last event I had almost 3 hours of 1 to 2 inch per hour snowfall rates from late morning to early afternoon with a temp of 33 degrees, but I only got a little slushy dusting on roads and didn't even have to shovel. You really need the temp to fall to freezing or below if roads and pavement are very warm. Right now this event is looking similar with temps likely falling to 33 to 35 during the snow wednesday morning, so it probably won't be a high impact event. That said, if the models are right we could get a couple inches on colder surfaces. It would certainly be very nice to see 1 to 3 inches on car tops and grass, so I'm definitely interested in this event. Any accumulating snow is interesting to me, even if it doesn't have much of an impact on travel. Of course northwest of our area where it will be colder, there's a better chance of seeing some accumulation on pavement. But I don't expect that to happen for central Jersey to NYC.

It is rain changing to snow though. I watched the GGEM color animation, and it goes from rain to rain/sleet/snow mix to snow in a short period of time on the model run.

12z GGEM is actually giving the entire tri-state a 5 to 8 inch snowfall tuesday night into wednesday as rain changes to snow with the front. I know these rain to snow situations don't usually work out that well here though, so I'm guessing the model is overdoing it.

The timing was just off here. We had heavy snow late morning to early afternoon, but it struggled to accumulate due to temps slightly above freezing and a warm ground. Now at night when it can accumulate more easily, we're only getting light snow. So even right now the pavement remains wet. A shame to have a winter storm warning and not even get any accumulation on pavement. I thought I'd at least have a little shoveling to do. Too bad.

LOL. You said it was dumb of me to bring up sun angle, but then you say your snow is starting to accumulate because the sun is going down. Too funny. I am in Piscataway NJ. We had a few hours of HEAVY snow earlier today but in mainly just accumulated on colder surfaces. The pavement stayed wet for a long time, and then just a slushy dusting. If it was night it would have EASILY accumulated on pavement. But it was middle of the day (sun angle), the pavement had residual warmth and it was 1 degree above freezing. So unfortunately we lost a lot of accumulation. Now we're going into night but radar doesn't look good. The bands have shifted north and east of here. I wish we could have gotten that heavy band at night. It came down SO heavily here early afternoon, but we don't have much to show for it. Frustrating.

We were 1 degree above freezing with heavy snow. If that happened at 7pm rather than noon time, it would have accumulated on the pavement. That's a fact.

I don't see what's so funny. There's a reason why it hasn't been accumulating on pavement here despite 1 to 2 inch per hour snowfall rates and 33 degrees. If we had this at night we'd have a couple inches on the pavement right now.

1 inch here on colder surfaces like car tops. Pavement just has a slushy dusting. We've had heavy snowfall rates and 33 degrees the last few hours. I'm surprised it's having so much trouble accumulating. You wouldn't think sun angle would be a big deal this time of year. 33 is obviously only 1 degree above freezing, so you'd think heavy snow would accumulate easily. But somehow the sun angle seems to be hurting us. Unless it's more because pavement was wet and warm. Too bad this heavy snow band didn't hit us at night when it would accumulate easily. Hopefully there will be plenty left for tonight, but I'm concerned about the snow band shifting north and east for tonight.

It's mainly just accumulating on colder surfaces where I am in Piscataway, despite the good snow rates. My road is still just wet. Temp is 33. We have a nice coating on colder surfaces.

I root for some cold weather in winter because it's needed for snow, but I hate a cold blast like this in November. I would love to go outside for a run this evening, but it's too cold for running. So I'll use the exercise bike inside instead, which I don't like nearly as much as running. I don't know how someone can call this type of weather comfortable, but I guess some people like bundling up.

Yeah that's the way it has looked to me for awhile too. It looks more like just precip along the cold front thursday night, rather than some kind of storm. Could change to a little wet snow on the backside of the front to the NW of the city, but not a big deal. The next week looks much more interesting.