winterwx21
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Everything posted by winterwx21
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I actually watered the garden yesterday in case today didn't work out. Glad I did. I'm so used to potential rain events disappointing here that I usually water to be on the safe side.
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And now GFS has only about a half inch of rain for us by monday.
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What a shock that another event might be falling apart, lol. Of course I have to say might because the models don't have a clue. Other models look better. RGEM gives us a decent amount of rain tomorrow, but who knows. Considering how incredibly dry it has been here since May 1st, it wouldn't be surprising if the NAM ends up right and our misery continues.
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Euro not bad with the steady rain tomorrow morning. It gets about a half inch up to our area, with much heavier amounts for central to eastern Long Island.
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HRRR and GFS look a little better than NAM and RGEM for the batch of steady rain tomorrow morning. I'm hoping we can squeeze a half inch out of it, but it certainly could end up being less than a quarter inch like NAM and RGEM show. You never know what's gonna happen with convection ... we could end up getting a couple heavy downpours friday and saturday, or it could end up missing us. So I'm hoping the band of steady rain tomorrow morning will deliver a decent soaking.
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For most of the area. Most of the rain on 12z Euro is thursday and friday. It's showing only isolated activity for the weekend.
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And 12z Euro isn't showing much activity for the weekend and monday. Hopefully we'll get a good amount thursday and friday.
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Yeah our area often has such bad luck. Hopefully the heavy rains won't somehow find a way to miss us again.
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A lot of models now bring in the rain overnight wednesday night. I remember a couple days ago looking at the CMC and being surprised that it was bringing rain up into the area wednesday, since all other models had the rain staying south until the end of the week. It was slightly fast but it looks as if the CMC had the right idea bringing in the rain much earlier. Anyway I'm glad we're finally gonna bust out of this dry pattern. The ground here is already very dry again since we didn't get enough rain last week, so it's great that it looks likely that this pattern will deliver and give us the rain that we desperately need.
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Yeah last night's Euro doesn't give us a rain chance until next sunday, and obviously that's way too far out there to be optimistic. I wish our area had gotten more rain this week considering next week looks dry. I wasn't thrilled with the 0.84" for the week here since the potential looked better. At least it was enough to help and gave me a break from watering for a week, but I wish we had gotten 1.50"+ like some other areas received. The ground is going to be very dry again by early next week.
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I ended up with 0.29" here. Not too bad and about what I was expecting after looking at everything last night and this morning, but disappointing as you said considering what the models showed a couple days ago. I got .42" and .13" from the events earlier in the week, so we did end up getting a decent amount for the week. It was at least enough to water the gardens for the first time in a long time, and I can wait until early next week to water. But it's going to dry out very quickly early next week, and this wasn't enough to stop us from heading towards a drought. Overall a disappointing week considering what the potential was.
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Yeah still a decent moderate rain coming down with some rumbles. About to come to an end though.
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I just passed .20 here. Looks as if we'll just make the quarter inch here.
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A few rumbles of thunder here with the moderate rain.
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Decent low end moderate steady rain here so it is wetting the ground under the trees now. Based on the way radar looks though it's probably going to be struggle to get to the quarter inch. Looks as if this is going to be just barely enough to water the gardens.
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Yeah probably a quarter to half inch for our area. Not anywhere near what we really need but at least enough to water everything.
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Moderate rain here.
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Yeah, but I think my chance is much lower since I'm in the extreme northern part of the County. Southern Middlesex County could do pretty well.
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Yep based on the way radar looks that area has a much better chance of getting hit than we do.
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Looks as if we're going to get some rain from the line that's in eastern PA right now. HRRR seems to be doing a pretty good job with it. It's going to be close as we're going to be near the northern edge of the heavier rains, and it's also expected to weaken some as it moves in. It could be that southern Middlesex County gets a half inch from it while the northern part of the County gets less than a quarter inch. We'll see but hopefully it will be just enough to give a decent watering. Very close call.
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Yup. This period that was supposed to bust us out of the dry pattern is probably going to end up being a bust. I think we'll probably be heading into the moderate drought zone in the next few weeks. Horrible. I'm not very optimistic about today. Most of it is probably going to stay south. NAM 3km now gives us nothing again. I'm hoping we can get under a downpour to give us a half inch to at least give the gardens a decent watering, but we could just as easily get little to nothing.
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0z HRRR has the convection and heavy rain amounts for southern NJ with only a little rain up here. With the severe threat to the south I'm not expecting much rain up here and believe the frustration with this long dry stretch will continue, but I'm hoping for a positive surprise.
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Let's hope we finally get lucky tomorrow. Amazing that we haven't had a heavy rain event here since the late April event.
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Regular NAM has just a quarter to half inch for most. RGEM has our area right near the edge with the heavy rain amounts missing just to the south. There's good potential for tomorrow but as you said it could also be a bust for some. I really hope tomorrow works out for our area since the other 2 threats this week didn't produce the heavy rain amounts that we really need.
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Just some sprinkles here from it. I did have a decent moderate shower earlier in the afternoon and ended up with 0.13". Better than nothing but nowhere near what we need. Hopefully friday will be better.
