winterwx21
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Everything posted by winterwx21
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RGEM did get warmer for north-central NJ. It more than cut the snow amounts in half for Middlesex county (my area). It looks like the NAM now with my area being close to the edge of getting almost nothing. I know other models like HRRR and Euro look much better. Very tough call. I could get 4 inches or less than an inch.
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You're right about that Ant. Let's hope for an HRRR victory for this event.
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RGEM just came in warmer for our area unfortunately. Hopefully HRRR will be correct with the colder solution, but this is an extremely close call obviously.
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I usually plant the cold-sensitive stuff like tomatoes in early May. I've never had a problem with frost damaging plants in early May, but no question it's best to wait until May. I'd never plant that stuff in April. I look forward to planting cold-tolerant stuff like broccoli and lettuce in late March. Looking forward to gardening season, but hoping we have some snow to enjoy before then. Hopefully tomorrow night will work out, and maybe we can pull off another event or two in early to mid March.
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Yeah there will likely be a sharp cutoff somewhere in Middlesex county. Hopefully you will not get much less since you're slightly south of my area.
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I'll gladly take snow through mid March. Late March, when it's time to start the vegetable garden, is when I'm done rooting for snow. Do you think 2 to 3 is a good possibility for our area tomorrow night? That's what I'm thinking right now.
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It made it up to 53 here. Turned into a beautiful afternoon.
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NAM still not great, but slightly colder than the 12z run. Gets a little snow down to this area now. Hopefully it will continue to trend colder.
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Not good that this is already trending north and warmer at this range. Hopefully we can get our few inches tomorrow night to end the snow event drought, since the late week storm isn't looking good.
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Taking ratios into account, I would shave an inch to inch and a half off the Euro totals. That would still be a solid 3 to 3 and a half inches for NYC and my area. I would gladly sign up for that. I just hope that the NAM isn't right. As others have pointed out, it can sometimes do a good job with sneaky warm layers even though it's a terrible model overall.
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Even though NAM is a horrible model, it's understandable that its warm solution is causing us to be a little skeptical after everything we've been through this winter. Our luck has been so bad that it wouldn't be shocking if NAM ends up being right for a change for this one. That said, I think it's definitely more likely that we'll get an advisory level event from this. Too many other models are on board. RGEM looks pretty good (2 to 3 inches for our area). Euro and HRRR are nice and cold. I'd go with 2 to 4 for our area right now.
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Hopefully our luck is finally changing here near the end of winter. Could be a great week for us, but I'm cautiously optimistic. This winter has been so terrible that you expect things to fall apart, but we definitely have a much better chance this week.
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Such a close call for our area. We probably won't have a good idea until right before the event.
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Not bad. 2 to 3 inches for NYC on the RGEM.
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NAM (using Kuchera) gives NYC 1.5". Almost nothing for us here in Middlesex county.
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Yeah we had only very light radar echoes going over us. Too light to reach the ground. The better radar echoes missed us to the north unfortunately.
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Yeah definitely. Even though it has less upside, a weaker event gives us a better chance of seeing a little accumulating snow. In this pathetic winter, 2 inches would seem like a great event.
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18z RGEM looks as if it would be about 2 inches for NYC even though it's mostly snow. It's mainly light snow. This event seems to be trending colder and weaker.
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Might not even see a flake here today, but I'm glad that folks to the north got to see a little accumulating snow.
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The 10:1 map has about 4 inches for NYC, so I would guess the Kuchera would be somewhere between 2 and 3 inches. It's not as if this Euro run is showing that much snow for NYC, but it's certainly better than the other models.
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Yeah I'm not counting on getting a few inches of snow right now just because the Euro looks good. Other models don't look as good, and it's hard for me to be very optimistic about an event when we don't have much cold air in place before the storm. This could easily end up being more sleet too. But at least we can say the Euro keeps hope alive and we have a chance.
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UKMET came in warmer again. Hardly anything for NYC now. It shows a very nice event for northwest NJ.
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RGEM took away the widespread half inch for today. Other models and radar don't look very good either. Not looking good for our area now today ... we'll be lucky to see a light dusting.
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Euro did improve slightly for later today. It gives most of the area a half inch now. Looks like RGEM.
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The 10:1 maps are ridiculously inflated for this event. Can't take them seriously at all. This Euro run is showing a lot of sleet, which would really cut down totals.
