winterwx21

I would say if Burrow wins the Super Bowl this season (which I now believe will happen), we can elevate him to the best QB in the NFL. Or at least into a tie with Mahomes for the best QB in the NFL.

And if a compromise between those models happens (kind of what like GFS is showing), we'll probably get no accumulation. The snow would have to come in like a wall and be heavy to get accumulations in this situation. Light to moderate snow falling with temps above freezing and a warm ground won't cut it. If that happens, NYC's record will probably be broken.

Starting to see some flakes mixing in with the rain now. Who cares about non accumulating wet snow though.

Yep you have to go to extreme northwest NJ to get snow on the UKMET now. I'm sure NAM and Euro will come to reality soon. We're not getting a few inches of snow with the low tracking that far west and not much cold air in place.

RGEM was much closer to reality than NAM for today in the longer range though. Early NAM runs had this area getting a snowstorm while RGEM was all rain. RGEM ended up being right about it being all rain here. I don't see anyone getting the several inches of snow today that the early NAM runs had. NAM was WAY off.

12z GFS gives us about an inch of snow before the rain. It's going to have to snow heavily to give us an inch or so of snow though. Light to moderate won't cut it with temps above freezing and a warm ground. Even if RGEM is wrong about holding it back and no snow, I still wouldn't be surprised if it's just some wet snow falling that doesn't accumulate and the NYC record gets broken.

RGEM has been an excellent model, so it's hard for me to get interested in wednesday as long as RGEM doesn't want anything to do with it. NAM is such a crazy model and has been terrible, so I'm assuming it's going way overboard for wednesday. Even the 3km NAM doesn't look anything like the regular NAM.

They're both great.

The Giants deserve credit for playing very well, but they were playing the worst 13 win team ever last week. The Vikings had many games where they just barely beat mediocre to bad teams during the season. They were actually -3 on point differential during the season, so obviously they were extremely lucky to win 13 games. No surprise that they were 1 and done in the playoffs.

Not the RGEM. It just came in warm with no snow for us. Starts us out as rain. Remember what NAM did at hour 84 for tonight's storm. It started out showing us getting a snowstorm, while RGEM was very warm and all rain. RGEM ended up schooling NAM on tonight's storm, just like it has schooled NAM on most events the last few years. I'm guessing RGEM will be right again and we get no measurable snow wednesday. I'm not saying we can completely rule out the possibility of getting a small front end like some other models have. Is it possible to get an inch of slop that quickly gets washed away by the heavy rain wednesday night? Sure. But I think it's more likely that we'll get no accumulation. Temps are going to be above freezing, the ground is warm and the precip is coming in during the afternoon hours. It's going to have to snow heavily for a couple hours to get a decent coating on colder surfaces with that bad setup. Not impossible but knowing how everything else has ended up this winter, I'm guessing no accumulation.

Back to warm temps and rain at the end of the month on the Euro. So much for our better pattern late in the month. Nothing ever works out this winter. Time to enjoy this big football weekend and not waste any more time looking at these hopeless model runs.

I agree. I would be very skeptical of any model run that gives us an inch or so of front end snow. With the temps and warm ground, it would probably be just a little non accumulating wet snow during the afternoon.

Yeah Euro and CMC both say we have a shot at breaking the record. Hardly any front end snow on those models.

12z Euro has hardly any front end snow for us. Maybe a slushy coating on colder surfaces at best, and then heavy rain wednesday night.

Maybe an inch of slop that quickly gets washed away by rain. 12z CMC and GFS say it won't even be that much. The models also give us some rain at the end of the month, the time period in which we were supposed to be in a cold window. All you can do is laugh at this point. This winter is that bad.

Keep in mind that's a 10:1 ratio map. A Kuchera ratio map would show quite a bit less, since snow ratios won't be good with this storm.

Ugly 12z runs of CMC and EURO for the midweek storm. Both show a cutter with rain even well to the northwest. CMC doesn't even give any front end snow, while Euro gives just a little bit slightly to the northwest of NYC and then a quick changeover to rain. I think this storm is gonna end up like all our other storms in this miserable winter.

I see NAM finally woke up. The 12z run doesn't have any snow for NYC and you have to go well NW to see any accumulation. RGEM is a much better model than NAM and this was another example of that.

0z RGEM still showing all rain. Not even any snow for extreme northwest NJ on the RGEM. Even if a compromise happens between NAM and RGEM, the NYC area wouldn't get any snow. I'll be shocked if this one works out, but we'll keep an eye on it just in case the NAM is onto something.

It rains in NYC on 0z NAM, but it changes the rain over to snow and manages to give NYC a few inches monday morning. We know how unlikely that is. NAM will probably come to reality tomorrow.

This winter is so bad that getting an inch from a clipper would be thrilling at this point.

Probably NAM being terrible in its long range like usual. RGEM at hour 84 is much warmer than this. RGEM has been a much better model than NAM in recent years.

Good chance both of these events won't work out for NYC, and then just cold/dry for several days after that before a big warmup in early February. Slight chance next wednesday will work out or that we'll score something during the cold window late month, but I'm thinking it's more likely we'll get to mid February without an inch of snow for NYC. That would be off the charts horrible.

Euro also came in warmer for the wednesday storm. This 0z run doesn't have the front end dump for NYC that the 12z run had. Mostly rain for NYC and you have to go to northwest NJ to get some accumulating snow on this run.

0z Euro doesn't look good for sunday night either. You have to go way NW. Maybe a couple inches for Sussex county. What we're seeing tonight isn't a surprise ... this event hasn't looked good for awhile.