winterwx21
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Everything posted by winterwx21
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Ended up being not too impressive. Looked great on radar as it was heading into western NJ, but it really weakened. Mostly light to moderate rain, but I did get a very narrow line of heavy rain. It poured for about 3 minutes. I ended up getting 0.42" tonight. The HRRR deserves to be criticized for not picking up on the activity until the last minute, but the 3km NAM was much worse. I mean the 18z run had some areas getting 6 to 9 inches of rain, LOL. That model was totally off its rocker. The HRRR was bad, but the 3km NAM was INSANE with the amounts it was predicting. Anyway it worked out ok here. The rain held off until almost 10 so I was able to get all the fireworks in, and then the garden got a decent soaking. Glad I won't have to water tomorrow.
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Storms still far enough away that there's time to light off some stuff here. Will get some in at least. Heading back outside.
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That model has become a disaster. Sad because HRRR is supposed to be a highly skilled short range model that we can count on. Hopefully it can be replaced with something better eventually. At least the different model runs that showed some pop ups during the afternoon were wrong. That's one thing HRRR got right at least. It was completely quiet for all of NJ until that little downpour that hit your area popped up a little before 8pm. It went very well for cookouts, but unfortunately not looking good for fireworks tonight. Sucks because we had absolutely perfect weather the last 3 days. Terrible timing.
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I was planning on lighting off my own fireworks here tonight, but will cancel it and try again tomorrow night instead if these storms in eastern PA appear to be getting too close. Not looking good. A lot of people lighting off stuff now even though it's not dark. I did do some during the afternoon.
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Yeah looks like some storms are coming. I'm glad we got through our cookout without a problem. That downpour that popped up and is hitting our friend Allsnow missed me to the south. The storms getting ready to hit western NJ appear to be on track to hit our area close to fireworks time unfortunately. NAM 3km was overdone but HRRR was underdone.
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And this 3km NAM run is already wrong. It had some heavy storms in NJ at this time, but there's absolutely nothing. I'm glad it's going well for cookouts. Will have to see if we have some activity later on for fireworks time. Probably will be some, but I think HRRR is going to be much closer to reality than the wildly overdone 3km NAM.
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Would be nice if the HRRR is right about nothing happening today and tonight, but of course that's a wildly inconsistent model. Hard to trust it. NAMs much worse for tonight as you said. RGEM has a few pop ups during the afternoon but is quiet by fireworks time. Every model showing something different as you'd expect. Overall I don't think it's looking too bad. Just have to keep an eye on radar.
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12z HRRR has almost nothing for today and tonight, while 3km NAM has heavy activity tonight but keeps it to the north of this area until after fireworks time. Who knows, but hopefully cookouts and fireworks will be ok for most of the tri-state. Happy July 4th!
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Yeah and GFS doesn't have good timing too. Some other models look better though, so who knows. At least we're not looking at widespread activity, so I wouldn't cancel any plans. Hopefully it will be ok for most of the area. Usually I root for storms, but of course the 4th is a rare day in which I don't want them.
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Another great day with temps in the 80s and very dry with dew points in the 50s. I wish this perfect weather could continue tomorrow for the 4th (my favorite holiday), but it doesn't look too bad. I see 12z runs of NAM 3km and HRRR have pretty much nothing for our area through fireworks time, and RGEM has only isolated activity. Looks like a good chance that we'll be ok for cookouts and fireworks, but will keep an eye on radar just in case. I hope everyone here has a great holiday!
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80 degrees with a dew point of 56 here. I'm leaving now to do some hiking this afternoon. Just perfect summer weather for outdoor activities.
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Yeah that's the way it looks. Hopefully we can get anything significant to hold off until Friday night into Saturday so that we can have a couple mostly dry days for cookouts and fireworks. Models still not showing much for the 4th ... just isolated activity and it's possible it could hold off until night or stay to the south and west. Hopefully it won't get any worse as we get closer.
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It has been a nice turnaround with 3 good rain events over the last couple weeks. The lawns are greening back up and the gardens are happy.
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I got 1.98" from the storms. Great event!
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It's awesome!! I'm already up to 1 inch. Might get close to 2 inches out of this here.
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Coming down in buckets. Gonna get a ton of rain here based on the way radar looks.
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Starting to pour here again. At least we'll do very well in the rainfall department.
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LOL you can't even keep track of your trolling. A few weeks ago you said you wanted the fun parts of climate change like the extremely severe storms they got in Texas. You're funny.
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I got a quick 0.28" from that downpour. Like you said more to the west, so we should end up getting a good amount of rain. The severe t-storm warning sure was a bust though. Very weak other than the downpour.
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VERY heavy downpour here, but that's about it. I was surprised about the lack of wind. Just breezy, but the main thing is I'm getting the heavy rain I wanted.
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Yeah at least there's more forming to the west if this storm that's about to hit the extreme northern part of Middlesex county misses you.
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Yep and it looks as if I will get clipped by the southern part of that storm.
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It's gonna be really close for you. Looks as if that storm will clip me here in the extreme northern part of the county, but not sure it will get down to you. Very close call.
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Yeah it does look good for our area. That storm moving into Somerset is sinking enough to the south. I'm excited.
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I see another cell just popped up behind that storm. Also watching the activity a little further to the south that will be moving into southern Hunterdon. That could make it to Middlesex as well, but might miss just to our south. Hopefully it won't be a case of storms missing just a few miles to the north and few miles to the south, but we'll see. It's going to be close.
