winterwx21

CMC pretty warm for the midweek storm as well. We'll have to see if Euro holds with the colder solution tonight.

Yeah the Euro gives even NYC a decent front end dump. I'm guessing it will trend warmer like all our other storms have, but it's a week away and at least we can say we have slight hope for that one.

It just hit 58 here! I'm going to go for a run outside with a t-shirt on. Love it!

12z Euro too warm for the NYC area sunday, but has a decent snowfall for northwest NJ.

Euro still very warm for the sunday night storm. Only extreme NW New Jersey gets a little bit of snow before changing over to heavy rain on the run. It's also showing a warm cutter for the mid next week storm.

Yeah the 0z CMC gives northwest NJ 1 to 2 inches of snow before changing to rain. All rain for NYC. Problem is there just isn't much cold air in place. NW areas could get away with that and see a little front end snow, but I doubt the NYC area can. I see the same problem for the mid next week storm. I think we're gonna have to wait until the pattern changes and we actually have cold air in place in very late January before we have a better chance, but of course we'll keep an eye on the 2 storms before the colder pattern because you never know for sure at this range.

Bump.

Maybe you should try to remember the post you made on page 17 where you said you're rooting for the major cities to get less than 5 inches of snow this winter. That sure sounded like you giving up on this winter, so you don't have any room to be criticizing other people that have been honest about how bleak the situation is this winter.

I'm not sure what you mean. The storm for late this week or late next week? I was just making the point that a week ago there were some model runs that teased us with some colder solutions for this week's late week storm (the 19th). I remember back then saying I thought it would trend warmer, and it has. Everything shows rain for this thursday. I think you misunderstood my post. So now I'm saying I think the late next week storm (day 9 storm) will trend warmer as well, since the pattern hasn't changed much yet by that point.

Early on some model runs teased us with this thursday's storm, but of course it's ending up warm. Same for the sunday into monday storm, but now all models give us rain. I'm guessing it's the same thing for the day 9 storm now, and it'll trend warmer as it gets closer like all other storms this winter. But of course we'll keep an eye on it just in case. You never know for sure with weather. The good news is that it appears likely that we're finally gonna have a cold pattern for a little while (maybe a week) late in the month after that potential day 9 storm. Hopefully finally having some extended cold will give us a better chance of scoring. It might not work out, but at least it gives me a little more hope right now.

Just hit 52 degrees here. Temps well above forecast today.

Good luck getting that to work out without much cold air in place. The other models have rain, which makes more sense considering the pattern and what has been going on. 12z Euro also has another big rainstorm wednesday next week. This pattern is extremely ugly with rainstorm after rainstorm likely.

50 degrees here right now.

Rainstorm after rainstorm after rainstorm coming. Horrendous pattern. It's a huge football weekend. I say it's time to stop looking at this hopeless weather for a couple days and enjoy the weekend.

Seems extremely unlikely that the late week storm will work out with no cold air in place before the storm. 6 days out so we'll keep an eye on it, but I'm not getting my hopes up on that one.

Yeah that's the amazing thing. We haven't even had a close call. It's not as if we had a storm in which southern NJ got snow and we just barely missed out due to bad luck. We haven't even had anything close. It has been the most hopeless winter ever.

That's our hope of getting fairly close to normal snowfall for the winter. One huge KU in February that saves the winter. Wouldn't be a surprise with today's wild climate.

Euro probably will be right, considering how everything has ended up this winter. And even if the other models are right, it's hard to see a front end dump for the NYC area with no cold air in place. You'd probably have to go well NW.

Which is why I'd be very skeptical of any model run that shows thursday's storm giving us any accumulating snow before changing to rain. It's going to be 50 degrees on wednesday before the storm. Hard to get a front end dump when there isn't any cold air before a storm.

Yeah that's a real longshot. 12z Euro isn't even close. Way offshore. It's continues to look like rain late thursday into early friday and then a dry chilly weekend. A very mild week next week.

Yep the CMC lost the idea of a 2nd low giving us some precip on saturday. Nothing even gets close. It looks like the GFS now ... some rain thursday night into friday and then a dry weekend. I'm guessing the Euro will lose it tonight too.

The event for late in the week is speeding up so much that rain might come in thursday afternoon. It's looking like a thursday night into friday morning rain and then a dry weekend.

Yep. Since January is shot, we're now down to the hope of one big storm salvaging the winter in February or March. Getting a KU in the 2nd half of the winter is our only hope of getting fairly close to normal snowfall for the winter. With today's crazy climate it certainly wouldn't be a shock if that happened, but overall the situation for this winter is bleak. We're going to get to late January without an inch of snow. Pretty much as bad as it gets for snow lovers.

12z Euro is earlier with the timing. Most of the rain is friday morning, and then a dry weekend. Less than an inch of rain for most of us on this run. Of course 6 days away, so it's too early to know details.

Make sure you listen to Bluewave and Allsnow from now on. They know what they're talking about.