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winterwx21

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Everything posted by winterwx21

  1. winterwx21
    It's a little south of its 12z run with a sharp cutoff for NW New Jersey, but very nice for our area.
  2. winterwx21
    He had said that this could be rain up to Albany (lol), so no surprise that he's quiet now.
  3. winterwx21
    12z CMC gives us a decent event on Saturday. Hopefully this is our big week.
  4. winterwx21
    Haha reminds me of the Kick The Can episode of The Twilight Zone. Anyway I'm so glad this trended in the right direction and we're actually gonna get lucky. I wasn't too high on this threat a few days ago. Looking good for at least a 4 to 6 inch storm for our area.
  5. winterwx21
    Wow Euro. Makes you wonder if the HRRR was onto something with the big solution. Tough forecast obviously ... 12z model runs should give us a better idea.
  6. winterwx21
    Glad to see this keeps trending in the right direction. Definitely enough to believe now that it will be more than just a coating to an inch or two for north-central NJ to NYC. I agree that upping it to 2 to 5 looks like a good idea.
  7. winterwx21
    Time to enjoy the afternoon and evening on Super Bowl Sunday. Not even gonna look at a crazy 18z NAM run lol. I'll be back to look at the 0z runs.
  8. winterwx21
    Yeah I think a coating to 2 inches is a good forecast for our area right now, but hoping it trends a little better so we can increase it to 1 to 3 tomorrow.
  9. winterwx21
    Do you think our area can pull off 2 or 3 inches? The significant snow will be to the north, but I'm hoping we can get a couple inches here.
  10. winterwx21
    Today's Euro has cold air in place with the storm missing well to the south. Long way to go figure out what's gonna happen, but it looks like our best potential so far this winter.
  11. winterwx21
    CMC has the threat next weekend too. At least we have another possibility if Tuesday fails.
  12. winterwx21
    CMC changes it over to snow even well south of the city, but the problem is the period of snow is too brief before it pulls out. So it isn't significant. So far the 12z models don't look great. Maybe last night was a tease, but we'll see what Euro shows this afternoon. We know how thread the needle this event is. Some people here have said a slushy inch or two on colder surfaces. Right now I think that's a good early call, but we hope to get lucky with something more significant.
  13. winterwx21
    Most of us haven't been impressed with the setup, but who knows. Maybe we're due to get lucky with one after a lousy couple years. I'm still not getting my hopes up too high, but the models did look better tonight. We need a nice snowstorm around here, so let's hope this keeps trending better tomorrow.
  14. winterwx21
    Nice to be able to do stuff outside with just a t-shirt on this afternoon.
  15. winterwx21
    Anyway it's 60 degrees here right now. Time to get outside and enjoy it instead of worrying about the pattern ahead.
  16. winterwx21
    Yeah President's Weekend continues to look like our best shot at seeing something significant this winter. Cold air in place with Euro showing a storm going to our south. With late February not looking as good now, we really need the period from early next week to early the following week to work out. Tuesday's storm looks like only a very slim chance of working out for our area (at least it's a chance), but there's reason to be more optimistic about President's Day Weekend.
  17. winterwx21
    Quite a bit warmer than what the 0z run showed. Obviously we have a slight chance that this could work out for areas near the coast since it's still early, but right now this is looking like an event for areas to the north and west. The airmass is lousy and we're really gonna need a dynamic solution for it to give us decent accumulations here.
  18. winterwx21
    Euro changes the rain Monday night over to snow Tuesday morning, but with the lousy airmass it would probably be white rain or just a slushy coating on colder surfaces for the NYC area. Those clown maps are really bad as many have pointed out. We really would need a dynamic solution to get decent accumulations near the coast. Interesting enough to keep an eye on, but I think only a very slight chance that this will work out. Hopefully we'll have a better snow chance President's Day Weekend when we actually have some cold air in place. Anyway it's 55 degrees here right now. Looking forward to the pattern change and hopefully some snow threats mid to late month, but it's nice to have temps well up into the 50s for a few days now. I'm leaving right now for deer hunting. Great way to finish up the last few days of the season with this warm weather.
  19. winterwx21
    One day later than I said, but it does appear that we have a shot at 60 on Saturday. Might be too many clouds for 60, but I think we'll at least hit upper 50s.
  20. winterwx21
    Right but he didn't completely rule out a 50 inch winter absent of a volcanic eruption. He just said we will have a hard time getting one. He realizes we can get lucky and still pull one off.
  21. winterwx21
    Well bluewave didn't say NYC absolutely will not have another 50 inch winter without a volcanic eruption. He just said we will have a hard time doing it. I do agree with you though that NYC will probably see another 50 inch winter. With climate change snowstorms will become less frequent (warmer weather and more big rainstorms of course), but a few big blizzards are still likely since we see more big storms. Get lucky with a big blizzard, and NYC can pull off 50 inches in a winter again.
  22. winterwx21
    Yeah last night's Euro was south with the storm for the 12th. Now it's showing a big cutter. GFS today is way south. Who the heck knows if we're gonna see a storm monday at this point. Way too early.
  23. winterwx21
    Beautiful weekend. It certainly was nice to finally see a lot of sunshine, and of course sunshine is all we need for temps to overperform. It made it to 50 here today.
  24. winterwx21
    The warmup for late next week is looking pretty impressive. Maybe a shot at 60 degrees on Friday?
  25. winterwx21
    Yeah I've used organic pest control in my vegetable garden for many years. Works very well. As far as the weather, I'm glad to see there's more and more agreement on a big pattern change for mid to late February. Hopefully it will work out, but it's long range. Obviously we've seen many good looking long range patterns fall apart or get pushed out. This is too far out there for me to get excited. If it still looks good a week from now, then I'll start to get excited. Right now you can look at Euro all the way out to day 10 and it's still ugly for our area, so we have quite a ways to go. At least we have some hope for late winter though.
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