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winterwx21

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Everything posted by winterwx21

  1. winterwx21
    It was always supposed to cool down at the end of next week after the 1 week blowtorch pattern. But the cooldown doesn't look like a big deal. Look at the Euro. The cooldown probably won't even get us all the way down to normal temps. Still a mild pattern with no sign of any major cold.
  2. winterwx21
    I think it's beautiful. If it's not gonna snow it might as well be warm. 60 degrees is a lot better than a mediocre warmup to 50 degrees. I love that I'll be able to go for a run outside this afternoon with just a t-shirt on. Hopefully we'll get some snow later in January, but for now enjoy the warm weather.
  3. winterwx21
    60 degrees here. Beautiful.
  4. winterwx21
    Tomorrow it's gonna be in the mid 50s. It's going to be near 60 by wednesday next week. Way above normal temps, so I'd call it a big deal.
  5. winterwx21
    Beautiful day. 48 degrees here as our warm pattern has started. Frustrating that it appears that it will be a long time before we see our first snowstorm of the season, but I will enjoy the warm weather. I think we'll see 60 degrees the middle of next week.
  6. winterwx21
    Amazing that on December 24th we can look out 2 weeks and not see any sign of wintry weather for our area. After the cold air passes on wednesday, it's going to be warm for a long time. Hopefully we'll see changes for mid January as some are optimistic about. But for now with nothing interesting to track and it being Christmas weekend, I'm checking out for a couple days. Merry Christmas! I hope everyone here has a great holiday weekend.
  7. winterwx21
    Not really even mid week. Euro showed the flurries early tuesday morning. Euro along with the other models still have the actual storm WAY offshore. They're still not bringing it closer. We're at day 4 range now too, so this is down to an extremely slim chance. I would give it another day before completely writing it off, but it's likely finished if tomorrow's model runs don't start bringing it closer.
  8. winterwx21
    Starting to see a light dusting on colder surfaces, but looking at radar it's about to end.
  9. winterwx21
    Nice burst of moderate snow here. Not accumulating but nice to see.
  10. winterwx21
    Pretty boring squall line. Wasn't much wind. A very brief heavy downpour. We should have a little wet snow coming down early afternoon ... that will probably be the most interesting part of the event for our area. Rain wasn't a big deal here ... only a little over 1 inch.
  11. winterwx21
    Yeah it's gonna be horrible, but at least we have some warm weather to look forward to. We could be going from the horrendous wind chills Christmas weekend to 55 to 60 degree high temps New Year's weekend. It's looking like quite a torch.
  12. winterwx21
    A potential problem is the airmass is borderline by then, so it could be an event where you'd have to go NW with rain for the coast. A long way to go though. At least it's something to keep an eye on.
  13. winterwx21
    I think brooklynwx did a good job explaining why it's a low chance. But, a low chance is better than nothing to watch at all. After that we go into a warmer pattern, so it could be our last chance for quite awhile.
  14. winterwx21
    Somehow you didn't understand my point? By next wednesday we're starting to warm up, so there would be the threat of it not being a snow event if we get hit. The threat, not that I'm saying that would definitely be the case. At this early point there's no way to know details. Right now my guess is we won't get hit by anything as most model runs have been showing, but a long way to go. At least it's a little something to watch even though it's a longshot.
  15. winterwx21
    The funny thing is that even though the CMC hits us with the potential wednesday event next week, it warms us up enough that it's mostly sleet and you have to go way NW to see snow accumulations. Obviously at this range a model showing a detail like that doesn't matter very much, but it wouldn't be a surprise if something like that happened since we've really been getting screwed in this December pattern.
  16. winterwx21
    When some here were hyping, bluewave did a great job explaining the nuances and model biases that put us at serious risk of not getting anything out of the December pattern. No one is saying it wasn't a decent pattern, but a truly great pattern never got to a close enough range that would be worthy of a lot of hyping.
  17. winterwx21
    Yep we're down to maybe a 3 day cold shot after friday's cutter. Then a very warm period.
  18. winterwx21
    And after the cold shot for Christmas weekend and early the week of the 26th, it looks as if we'll go into an extended warm pattern. If it's not gonna snow it might as well be warm. Let it torch for New Year's.
  19. winterwx21
    Why? I think we have a lot of great posters here. You have to weed through some stupid stuff and long range gets overhyped sometimes, but I think the majority of the stuff that gets posted here is good. And people usually treat each other with respect here, unlike the crazy toxic environment of OT. I have a hard time seeing someone defend Forky considering the crazy/disturbing way he trolls in OT.
  20. winterwx21
    I think long range forecasting is pretty useful when it comes to temperature trends. Usually we can get a pretty good idea of warmer or colder patterns in the long range. The problem is storm threats. The model skill is just way too poor to have a good idea on anything beyond a week, so I think some people make a mistake in getting hopes up for winter storm threats beyond a week. It's why I never get excited until a legitimate threat gets to the more realistic day 5 range.
  21. winterwx21
    He's probably too busy trolling in OT to come back here and talk about his best December pattern since 2010 turning into a bust. lol
  22. winterwx21
    This is another example of the CMC being a much better model than GFS. I think it even picked up on next week's storm being a cutter before the Euro. The CMC has done pretty well with winter storm threats the last couple years. It's a pretty good model. Even worse than next week's storm not working out is the pattern really breaking down in late December. It looks like a big warmup going into New Year's weekend. The great pattern that we were supposed to have is likely going to be a big bust.
  23. winterwx21
    Yep. Still much different than Euro/CMC, but it now shows rain for next friday instead of snow.
  24. winterwx21
    Long range is way too difficult to predict to get excited about a potential event that's 10 days away. I don't get hopes up until a potential event gets to the more realistic day 5 range. The model skill is just too poor when you're looking out over a week.
  25. winterwx21
    Especially in a La Nina. You really need to see a decent December snowstorm in a La Nina winter or else the odds of having a well below normal snowfall winter are high.
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