winterwx21
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Everything posted by winterwx21
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I think we still need to watch saturday night. Models have most of the precip missing us to the south, but it's a rare time this winter in which it's actually cold enough for snow if we can get some precip in here. 12z CMC and UKMET do get a little light snow in here. Euro misses to the south but would only need a slight bump north to give us some snow. It would be a light event, but I'll take anything I can get in this pathetic winter.
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Sadly it's all we have in this pathetic winter. Tracking a slight chance of getting a small amount of snow.
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He's talking about next weekend. The Euro shows the city and LI getting brushed by a little snow from a late developer. CMC has a little light snow for the weekend as well. The fact that this trended south and weaker/colder might not be a bad thing at this range. Next weekend is probably still a longshot for accumulating snow for us, but it's something to keep an eye on.
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Not saying I'm that optimistic. I just think it's at least a slightly better chance than we've had. I never believed the middle of next week or any of the other teases that the models showed this winter. This is the first time I feel we have a little better chance of seeing a front end thump event because of more significant cold air coming in ahead of the storm, but at this early point I think it's best to be skeptical. I'm just saying a slightly better chance. It's something to watch.
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12z Euro still shows snow for us next saturday. It's cold enough for accumulating snow even down the southern NJ coast, so this is why I say we have a little better chance of a front end thump this time. Right now the models are showing much colder air than we've had at the start of all our other storms. Obviously a lot of time for this to trend worse though.
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The difference this time is the models are showing colder air than the other times that they teased us with front end dumps. Right now they're cold enough to start it as snow even well south of the city. The other times they showed it borderline for the city. With those other teases right away I said I thought we had no chance, but this time I think we have a little better chance. Hopefully the models are right about the magnitude of the cold air coming in next friday, which would set us up for some front end snow. Obviously it isn't a great setup and it would probably be a changeover event, but at least it appears there's a better chance of front end snow this time. However a better chance still doesn't mean a great chance. Still have to be skeptical and there's a long way to go.
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It poured for 1 minute as that extremely narrow squall line came through.
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I see the CMC also brings in some snow for next saturday. Right now the models are saying it will be cold enough for some front end snow even south of NYC, but of course it's very early.
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Way too early for me to be optimistic, but last night's Euro gave us snow next saturday and now GFS is doing the same. At least it appears that we have some cold air coming in the end of next week, so unlike all other events this winter maybe this one wouldn't be doomed to be too warm. Something to keep an eye on. A skeptical eye of course since nothing has worked out this winter.
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It's weakening as it's coming in, so probably only around a tenth of an inch this afternoon.
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Another warm cutter next week, and then some cold air comes in next friday. We can hope that sets us up for some snow next weekend, as 12z CMC is showing. The models have been wrong every time they've shown snow at this range, so of course we'd have to say this is a longshot. But my goodness, you'd think something would work out at some point. Incredibly difficult to go an entire winter without 1 event. Whether it's next weekend or sometime in March, I hope we can at least pull off an advisory level event.
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If we're gonna have a warm pattern with no hope of snow, we might as well have some blowtorch days like today. Absolutely beautiful. I love that I can go running outside this afternoon with just a t-shirt on. GFS and Euro have rain for next week. Anytime the models show a little hope for the medium range, it quickly falls apart. Just the same thing over and over again this winter. We might go the whole winter without 1 snow event. But having said that, it obviously is extremely difficult to go the whole winter without 1 snow event. Even in the warmest winters we usually get something. You'd think we'd pull off something just on freak luck at some point, so it wouldn't be surprising if we see an event at the end of the month or in March. I hope we can at least pull off 1 decent snow event. As much as I love this warm weather, I still want to see some snow.
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68 degrees here! What a day. Spectacular.
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Yeah it's certainly possible that it would be ok. Broccoli can take a pretty good freeze. But an extremely hard freeze (like North and West described) can damage it, so to be safe I usually wait until late March to put broccoli plants in. Mid March at the earliest if there are absolutely no signs of a cold shot coming.
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59 degrees here. Beautiful day.
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Obviously this horrendous winter can't be saved at this point, but yeah I hope we can somehow pull off 1 snow event. Would be horrible to go the entire winter without 1 decent snow event. I'm not very optimistic, but hopefully we can pull something off in early March.
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I did some cleaning up of the garden too today and noticed the same thing. Incredible. It feels like I should be starting the vegetable garden with cool weather vegetables like lettuce and broccoli, but of course we have to wait until late March for that.
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This weather really makes me want to get out there and start the garden with cool season vegetables like lettuce and broccoli. Obviously have to wait until late March for that though. It'll probably be colder then than what we're having now. It's gonna be 65 degrees on wednesday.
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I wouldn't be surprised if we see mid to upper 60s late next week. Looking like quite a blowtorch.
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It's great for outdoor activities though. It's going to feel great running outside in this weather this afternoon. If we're not gonna have snow, we might as well have some very warm days like today. That said, I do hope the pattern changes so we can finally get a snowstorm late in the season.
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The models are showing a very brief minor cooldown after next week's blowtorch, but then another major warmup to start the week of February 20th. It appears that we're down to the last several days of February and March for our last hope for a winter storm. Very sad. I know there are some encouraging signs for March, so hopefully that will pan out and we'll get a late season event. But that's way too far out to be confident, and nothing that has looked good in the long range this winter has worked out for us. It would be horrible to go the entire winter without 1 snowstorm, so hopefully that will finally change.
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55 degrees here. Beautiful day ... time to get outside and enjoy it.
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Yeah it's very borderline cold air. It might've been just barely cold enough to get some frozen on saturday, especially to the northwest of NYC. But as I mentioned in my post this afternoon when talking about the UKMET model (and you pointed out in your post) bringing the storm far enough north to give us precip, the problem is the little bit of cold air we had is gone by the time the storm finally makes it up to us. So we're looking at rain if it does make it up here sunday into monday. In fact I see that the new run of the CMC tonight does bring the storm north, and some rain moves in late in the afternoon sunday. Unfortunately with the cold air gone by then, it would be rain even well to the northwest of NYC. We needed a storm to happen for us on saturday to have any slim hope, but there's no hope with it holding off until late sunday like the models are showing. This horrendous winter continues. It appears that we're gonna be waiting a long time to have a winter storm threat. Maybe something will happen end of February or March.
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The UKMET brings the storm north too, but is more realistic with rain except for way to the northwest. There just isn't much cold air. The GFS is a horrific crazy model that should be ignored.
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A tease of rain. We don't have cold enough air in place for the weekend.
