kat5hurricane
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Everything posted by kat5hurricane
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Nothing but when the potential for more, a lot more, is so close people are going to naturally be disappointed with a lesser outcome. Anyway, this is entering banter territory so I'll put a lid on it.
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The "Big" snow idea is diminishing. I think 4-8 is a reasonable call for western L.I. on westward. The 12+ inch possibility seems to be waning more and more with every set of runs. A little disappointing considering the potential of this storm but this was always a thread the needle event so we take what we can get.
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Time is starting to run out. The big snow idea for those west of Suffolk is starting to diminish IMO.
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Yeah but the Euro is trending away from the major storm idea outside of eastern sections. Neither have been trending well.
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That's the problem. Canadian/UK on your side vs. Euro/GFS is not where you want to be this close to the event. Need some fairly significant changes by 12z with the major models (the GFS in particular) or else this is starting to look more significant than major for a lot of us.
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The Nam is largely irrelevant at this stage. The GFS is still pretty far off for the real significant snows outside of eastern sections and the Euro has been trending a bit east the last few runs, need that to stop. Without those two on board, it's hard to imagine much more than a 4-8 inch type deal for the city on west.
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It looks pretty good on the hi resolution maps, crushed Eastern L.I. and Southeast New England which gets annihilated. Wouldn't take much of a tick west to get a lot of us in the game for the bigger totals.
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That's a good point. The GFS does tend to struggle with coastals but still, I'd really like to see it start trending in the right direction.
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No it's not? I'm confused. I said the GFS wants nothing to do with the threat and you said "No, it's not". Really odd since every other model trended west tonight but the GFS is a pretty major model that you wanted making favorable trends in order to increase confidence of a big hit and we haven't seen it yet. The Ukie coming way west is big though, could bode well for the Euro run.
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It's hard to get on board with this threat with the GFS wanting nothing to do with it.
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Wow, what a reversal of what happened this afternoon. We really need the GFS to take some more sizeable shifts west to give this some validity and the Ukie needs to get its ass away from Bermuda.
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Oh I agree, big improvements there which is all we can really ask for even if it's just the Nam. I was mostly just poking fun at all the BOOM comments.
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All that buildup with the "we're about to get Nam'd" etc. then....thud. Not like it matters anyway because...Nam.
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I know some people are denying it, even pros, but the trends are pretty clear starting with last night's runs. It doesn't mean threat over but an east trend is evident. You can't say "It's just the Nam". Every model is trending more progressive.
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Yes but there were definitely some trends towards the GFS and all the other models to be honest with leaving some of the energy behind. Still some time for change but the possibility of a big snow event for the city on west is decreasing.
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The low did jump east, hence the comments about the low jumping east so not sure the condescension is really needed. The trends are not our friend.
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The Ukie ran already? Anyway, if this is the case, I'd bet anything that the Euro shifts east as well which will be frustrating since it's been the only model that has been consistent throughout most of this.
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The 6z Euro did not move east. The EPS did a bit though. Agreed in general though. Not good trends overall outside of the Nam.
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Not favoring any model over the other but what could lend a little more credence to the Euro is that it's been pretty steadfast with its solution over the last 3 days now? while the GFS has been jumping back and forth. The Ukie showing a whiff last night was concerning, we need that to trend significantly west today.
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Then it gets tugged (captured?) back northwest for a time at 78 then northeast again at 84. Haven't looked at the upper levels but the whole run was weird, one big zig zag. Also weird that at 72, the low was well east of the convection.
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The GFS jumped way east at 72 hours but it looks wonky because the low jumped straight east from 60 to 66 hours. Don't know what to make of that.
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The low was virtually in the same position on the rgem with maybe a slight tick east, it's just that the precip was more expansive on the 6z. Just like with the Nam, take with a grain of salt.
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It went east last night. Not by much but it stopped the west trend it was making the previous 2 days. Could be just model noise, we'll see in about an hour. Edit: I didn't see that it ticked back west at 6z. My apologies
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Uh yeah, I think I'll take that Nam run, nice trend towards the Euro. Just the Nam but a damn good start to the 12z suite. Really need to get that stubborn GFS on board, it went the wrong way last night.
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Sheesh, the Euro is going all in. It's pretty much on its own sending the real big totals NYC and west so unless the other models trend towards it today (they went the wrong way last night), I tend to think that it's out to lunch based on its performance as of late. It's been consistent though, I'll say that much.
