Silas Lang
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Everything posted by Silas Lang
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Even in TRI there is some variety in climate. It always seemed Kingsport and Bristol did better with the big storms, and JC was better with NWF and snow shower like setups. I have wonderful memories of randomly getting hammered with a snow shower and picking up an inch of snow while in JC. Best location I have lived in for those types of events.
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Jan 31 - Feb 1 Ice Possibilities
Silas Lang replied to Holston_River_Rambler's topic in Tennessee Valley
Yeah, I noticed that. Pretty substantial difference in places that were already below freezing as well. 3 to 4 degrees colder. Unfortunately, it makes the risk for ice much worse in places like west and middle TN. If it stays at 31-32, it probably won't be too bad. But if creeps into the upper 20s... -
Yeah, for this reason I am about to punt next Tuesday's event for the East. West has the best chance of scoring!
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Here is the p type break down. Note that this doesn't include a potential second wave.
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Using the totally valid metric of clown maps, it's pretty easy to see the potential for next week. Nothing crazy, but a statewide 1 to 3 inches doesn't sound unreasonable. I haven't dug in, so I don't how much of this is ice or sleet, but still a winter event regardless. Just need to get a little more southern jog to get the whole state. The trend is good on the GFS!
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Although looking at the Canadian, it follows more of the pattern we have had this winter of LPs going almost due north to Ohio. Hopefully it's just sniffing glue, but I'm not really sure what's preventing that scenario from happening.
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I am starting to feel pretty confident for winter weather in the western part of the state. Less confidence as you go east and south. The trend today is further south. It is also nice to finally see something similar on the GFS and Euro. Let's see if it holds or continues.
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Suppression is the trend. Just need a little bit more! For those in the east, do we want the cold air to be coming from a more North to South angle like the 12z? Seems coming from the west it would be more likely to get hung up on the plateau.
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I hear you. The chase is part of the fun! I think it also helps to have realistic expectations. We average about 6 inches of snow a year here. Sometimes that means we get it all in one dump (Christmas a couple of years ago), get a few small events, or even nothing one year and 12 inches the next. At least I live in a place where I get to see some snow falling every year, even it it's just flurries or a snow shower. Some places don't even get that. I think people that are the most miserable with this hobby are those who expect a massive snowstorm every year, are never satisfied with snow amounts, etc. I just want to be like "you live in the south east, stop complaining, and enjoy what you have!" And on the topic of unexpected, what about that Vols football team this year? Simply magical. Never been more invested than when I was a teen in the golden era. But, yeah this place is great! I really enjoy your posts and all the others that can explain things that I can't. This forum is my free entertainment during the winter.
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Yeah, I still look at all 3 and figure a split the difference approach is best. But really hard to even split the difference with the way the GFS has been. I swear, I thought the GFS did great last winter? Like, it seemed like it was out performing the Euro. But now, not so much. Yeah, I remember when Euro (the king) was pretty much a lock. I miss those days. It would be nice if we still had access to those older versions of the models.
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Yeah even the Canadian seems more consistent. Don't know why the GFS has been so nuts lately. It's like a box of chocolates, you never know what you're going to get.
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Yeah, should we lean more towards the Euro? I don't really know how the models have faired this winter or even how accurate they are with these over running setups. But the GFS has has been a completely different solution each run often this winter.
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Finally got to see the Euro. System next week looks a little flatter. However, snow over the entire state. Roughly only an inch average with the winner being middle TN and northern plateau with 2 to 3. Much less ice. Last night's run only had snow in the northwest part of the state.
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Looking at the Euro, it looks like the cold air is pushing a little more south an east, by about 50 to 100 miles compared to the 00z last night. This is regarding the potential overrunning next week.
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Good lord. What event was that? You hope people understand enough to factor in some climo when looking at snow maps. I don't even know if SC has ever had that much snow in their history. If that was showing on models for the valley, I would give it some serious side eye. 6 to 8 inches is usually the upper end on big events around here, with something like a foot or more being a once in a lifetime storm (like 93). Anyways, I am a sicko and want to reel this one in. Even after having burst pipes from the last cold spell. I can't help myself. Some men just want to watch the world bu...er umm freeze. Let's see what the Euro brings!
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Agree 100%. I am feeling pretty confident that some overrunning will occur. But it could still go anywhere at this point. Really depends on the cold push. I don't think it will miss us south. More likely north. The cold could get hung up on the plateau like the last time we had one of these events. Middle and West TN scored big while it rained here in the East for days. When was that? 2021?
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Looks like it is delayed. Still just shows the 6z.
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Yeah, the Euro last night looked similar to the Canadian and GFS. Pretty good to have all in agreement on that type of setup with as chaotic as the models have been this season. The pattern looks good, just hope we can score something!
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Latest GFS looks different, but still winds up with a couple of inches of snow in the east. The Canadian also trying to show something at the end of it's run. Way too far out for specifics, but it is seemingly increasingly likely that there is a storm threat for someone in the southeast next week.
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Yeah, 2015 was the last real big one I remember. I was in school at the time (student teaching) and I remember I was out for like 3 weeks. lol I forget if it was that year or another previous year, but I remember having some sort of snow/ice mix on the ground for a good chunk of the month of February. It would start to melt, but before it could clear out another storm would come and there were layers of frozen on the ground. Roads were awful for a while. This setup on the GFS with the the ice, sleet, snow, and cold reminded me of some of the those past setups. Hopefully we can score (but maybe without all the ice). February has always been the best month of winter in my mind.
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This look reminds me a lot of Feb of years past. Storms with every p-type imaginable only to be followed by another. Can't remember the exact years, but somewhere between 2012 to 2015? Anyone remember? I just know there were a couple of Febs where we had some systems showing pretty much what the GFS just showed.
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Yeah, it shows the potential. Even though the some of the other runs haven't shown a storm, the potential is definitely there for something like the GFS is showing. The first of Feb looks like a good window of opportunity.
