Silas Lang

Thanks guys. I will definitely keep an eye out and adjust as needed. Leaning towards plateau at the moment.

Probably about 90 minutes. Coming from Knox. Of course, may be able to stretch it if it seems worthwhile.

Hey guys, got some snow chasing questions. I think this Thursday and Friday, there could be a decent NWF or snow shower event for the higher elevations. I know the Smokies are probably the best place, but looking for some more accessible options as I have a small, two wheel drive vehicle I am not comfortable driving in with snow and getting too far out on small roads. So a couple of questions: 1) Timing. Is the most robust moisture moving through during Friday? Morning? Night? 2) Locations. Like I said, not driving some all terrain vehicle. I could easily scoot up 75 North as I don't think the interstate would be too bad, but not really sure where to go besides "north." Also, similar with the Plateau and heading west. I know there are some places just not sure where. Essentially, wondering if I could just pull off the interstate and drive down a well maintained highway and see snow? Thanks for any guidance. Not doing this for me, but for my mother in law. She is staying with us and is from Colombia. Never seen snow in her life. I love snow, but don't really chase it. So just looking for someone that may know of some easy places to see an inch or two in these NWF setups.

I don't really understand how the front catches up east of the mountains with precipitation when it seems like oftentimes fronts can slow down and get hung up on the plateau. I am assuming it has something to do with storm dynamics or low placement?

I think I like the general look right now. As a more casual observer, this December (and winter so far) definitely looks different than the past couple. Seems like there will be some big potential in the eastern part of the forum even if nothing pans out in the coming weeks. That almost phase around the 17th is interesting as I feel like I haven't seen it in forever. And even this weekend the storm and track look overall much different as TRI could possibly be involved. Is this what El Nino looks like? Pardon my ignorance, but it seems like things have been much more western based the past couple of years. I haven't experienced a legitimate snow day from work in the past 5 years. Please help me out this year, weather!

I was thinking the same thing. Or more like a flurry type of day here, but still. We are close to my favorite time of year. I love it. No bugs, better sleep, cozy nights. Something about winter is just relaxing to me. Cold air, hot drinks. Or stiff drinks

Whew, what a lame winter. Even the mountains didn't get too much this year comparatively. Southeast and Mid Atlantic pretty much shut out. You can really see the Nina footprint with how the axis of snow is west based. On the flip side, at least we see snow every year, so that's something. I measured two inches, which was all from that clipper, surprisingly. Anyway, bring on the warmth and see y'all next season!

Sorry, I need post this happy hour end of run storm here to show the potential. My sophisticated analysis for this storm is that it is still spring break when it occurs.

Of course we get a good pattern now. One thing is winter weather is certainly more explosive in March. Even if it doesn't amount to much, a snow shower in March can be an exciting, bombastic affair. I've experienced a snow squall this time of year that was essentially a summer afternoon storm with snow. Don't know if we will get anything big, but March snow can be fun to watch at least. Maybe we can all get a bit of fun to end this winter.

It happened last year. First day of spring break. lol

Definitely can't be any worse than January or February! But in all actuality, December wasn't too bad. Extreme historic cold and an overperforming clipper for my backyard. I want to say this far out storm goes as the rest of the storms this winter, but does the retreating La Nina shakeup the trend?

I want to believe, but gut says this goes west, or temps are warm enough for a cold rain here in the valley. Which at this point just give me warm rain at least. We have had some miserable 30 to 40 degrees rains this winter. Please no more!

So it is 33 here and my deck is getting slick. A much faster drop in temps than expected. Surfaces including roads are pretty damp and it doesn't look like there is any breeze to help with the drying. I know it ain't as sexy or cool as a good snow, but if you're in the valley, be careful out there. Have a feeling some slick roads and freezing fog will take people off guard in the AM.

Looks like the valley could have freezing fog in the am? Take a look at this:

A cold 39 degree rain here.

I mean, yeah we are probably out of it, but maybe a miracle happens. I just walked the dog and the wind was ripping from the north. Maybe that's a good omen. Fingers crossed.

Yeah, looks like it has caved to other guidance.

Maybe I am reading the tea leaves too much here, but I really don't understand how these models are showing most of East TN below freezing Sunday night and Monday morning if there is no snow. There is not a real cold air mass around and on a lot of model output it looks like it would be modeling the impact of snow on the ground, even when there is none according to the model. I guess this kind of goes along with what 1234snow just posted about the sounding versus the simulation the models are spitting. A lot is not adding up.

Yeah, that's looking like what we are going to have to do considering all the variables. Really think this could go any which way and everything is still on the table at the moment.

I don't think any adjustments are off the table just yet either. One small move in the track could lead to more favorable results. Not like we need a huge change.

Pretty good discussion for MRX. They seem to think it will be snow everywhere in the area by Sunday morning, which I found surprising, as the models have been trending mostly rain in the valley. Plateau and Mountains obviously favored for accumulation. The mid/upper low will be the main driver of our weather from Saturday night through Sunday night. Isentropic lift will spread rain to the area from south to north late Saturday and into the evening, with a top-down moistening of the column. Evaporative cooling will initially be offset by an easterly flow with warm advection and downsloping winds in the Valley. After midnight, the freezing level drops as the upper low tracks into GA, and mountain tops should begin to see snow by midnight. Forecast soundings show a deep layer from the surface up to 700 mb that is nearly isothermal, from 1-4 degrees above freezing. From 12-15Z, the top of this layer cools under the upper low, while surface temps remain several degrees above freezing, and this continues through Sunday. On the NW side of the circulation, a deformation zone will set up across Middle TN, and track into KY and WV through Sunday. Frontogenetic forcing in this area may result in some heavier precip rates. Snow accumulations will be highly dependent on temperatures, not only at the surface but up to 700 mb. In these situations, the precip rate can make a big difference in how much precip falls as snow, and how much can accumulate. This makes the forecast highly uncertain. Snow is expected to be falling nearly everywhere on Sunday morning, but temperatures in most spots outside the mountains will be in the mid to upper 30s, making accumulation difficult. An exception may be where snowfall rates are high enough to cool temps closer to freezing. As mentioned above, the favored area for this to occur in a frontogenesis zone near the Plateau and SW VA. This is the area of lowest confidence. Confidence is higher that impactful snow amounts will be in the TN mountains, and that much of the TN Valley will have little to no accumulation. Based on this reasoning, a Winter Storm Watch will be issued for the TN mountains from midnight Saturday night to midnight Sunday night.

It wasn't a whole lot. Think around an inch or two in most of the valley. Still, a better solution than the rest of modeling at this point.

Euro took a step back towards snow.

LOL not the trends we want to see. Looking like a bone chilling rain for a lot of us with the exception of places on the Plateau and mountains. And even then totals have pulled way back.

The GFS ain't as bullish either. Temps are way warmer at the surface. For example, has TYS at 40 on Sunday at 7:00 AM. The NAM had a temp of 33. Pretty big difference. GFS still has snow, though more elevation driven.