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Silas Lang

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Everything posted by Silas Lang

  1. Silas Lang
    I am going to need a drink after looking at the GFS. Goodness!
  2. Silas Lang
    It looks beefy to me. Which means it looks to encompass more north and south than some of the models indicated. Also considering the fact that I have had snow with zero returns over me is impressive. I was expecting a lot more virga.
  3. Silas Lang
    Yeah, crazy that it is just now starting. Seems like it is leaning towards an over performer,but I guess we will see! Any reports out west?
  4. Silas Lang
    Yeah, this storm could prove to be truly historic. A long duration, state wide mauler of a snow storm. Factor in the artic air and the fact that things will be shut down a few days...this one will be remembered.
  5. Silas Lang
    It's legitimately insane to me that tomorrow afternoon, nearly the whole state is still covered in snow on radar. It has been a long time since we have had a long duration event.
  6. Silas Lang
  7. Silas Lang
    Yes. I already have a dusting. And then you look at the radar and nothing of note has even hit yet. lol
  8. Silas Lang
    Same here in Fountain City. Just hit 32.
  9. Silas Lang
    Well then. I look forward to meeting Heather.
  10. Silas Lang
    Reading the latest MRX discussion, they seem to think most likely ratio is 12 to 1 to 15 to 1 ratios area wide. They only mention the southern border counties as the only exception. Seems they are not worried about warm air and also mention wherever the area of .50 to .80 precipitation sets up could get well beyond 6 inches. They seem very bullish overall. Don't see that often!
  11. Silas Lang
    Yeah I think a lot of bias is playing into the ratio forecasting much like mixing is. I think the depth and strength of the cold isn't really being modeled well by most and that ratios will be higher likely than most models are showing. So...if this bias is showing in the short range models, does that mean some locations could possibly see something like 50% more snow than modeled? Goodness.
  12. Silas Lang
    Here is the Canadian
  13. Silas Lang
    And here is the 0z GFS
  14. Silas Lang
    Here is the NAM
  15. Silas Lang
    Latest ICON
  16. Silas Lang
    0z RGEM pretty much the same as the 18z, but gives a little bit more to areas favored last run.
  17. Silas Lang
    Looks like the NAM has trended south with it's precipitation. Looks much closer to other guidance now. Should be a huge sigh of relief to those of us in the East. lol
  18. Silas Lang
    Maybe a dumb question, but is low level moisture impacted by ground moisture? I just say this because I remember some time ago reading about it, but forget the exact science behind it.
  19. Silas Lang
    Not sure if this is the same or different mechanism, but this was the one storm I was thinking about. I remember my parents got blasted in Anderson County, backed up against the plateau and I got nada in JC. lol
  20. Silas Lang
    I have seen similar situations pan out when living in Johnson City. Sorry @tnweathernut
  21. Silas Lang
    Yeah, it wasn't that bad at all. That warm air is at the end is also at peak sunlight hours. I imagine as the sun sets the cold ploughs ahead just fine. Most of the east is below freezing regardless. I will take the precip the HRRR is selling and roll the dice with artic air nearby.
  22. Silas Lang
    Man, what model is wbir using? Just caught the "futurecast" from them and the moisture and cold looks beefy. No concerns if you are on the NW or SE fringe according to that model. Of course they didn't show any totals yet. Just found it odd as usually it always seems the news network models are the ones that show the least amount of snow. lol
  23. Silas Lang
    So it pretty much makes it a niña like storm? Trying to remember, but seems like there have been a few the past couple of years where the whole state gets snow while the east gets cold rain with the cold air just hanging out on the edge of the plateau. One storm in particular I remember models busted as we got mostly rain here and no snow.
  24. Silas Lang
    Canadian
  25. Silas Lang
    Yeah looking at the snow output it actually doesn't look too much different. CMC is still a little stronger with more precipitation.
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