Silas Lang

I will say, it does look like there is still a possibility of mixing, so I am still somewhat sceptical of the higher amounts. Here is 3k (which I think has done well with warm layers this winter).

Wow, great trends last night! The heaviest snow axis is starting to look more consolidated. Noticed that Eastman snow hole has filled in as well. Is there a reason for the better totals out east?

Here is the Kuchera for comparison. Honestly not that different from the 12z Euro.

Yeah not bad. Probabilities looking pretty good as well.

Eh not great trends for East TN on the 18z runs. More mixing. Better for middle and west which has been the theme all year. Is this another Lucy and the football situation for us in the valley?

I think a little less amped is good right now, if only to give us some breathing room in case it comes in stronger like Carvers has been suggesting.

Yeah, I am not really understanding how Knoxville is escaping the warm nose while the Plateau gets a ton of sleet. Has that even happened before? Just usually seems mixing is more elevation dependent.

The latest 6z NAM is on board. Noticed some mixing happening. For some reason there is a strip of sleet and freezing rain. Anyone looked at any soundings? Kind of a random strip, but you can see it on some other snow maps too. Southwest of Anderson County on down.

Lastest 0z NAM looking epic.

Thanks! Nice to hear we have some factors working in our favor. I guess that snow rain line being close is why we have seen some lollipops in totals near the east on some model runs.

Carver, is there anything to keep this from going more NW? I've noticed the stronger trend and am kind of worried about an Ohio valley special. A few more ticks west and we could looking at rain. But yeah, it did look like the east was about to get hammered on the 18z and ensemble support is increasing so not really sure at this point. This has the makings of a great storm for the valley if holds.

Wow, that's a solid 4+ inches for East TN and an overall statewide hit. This is definitely the most impressive ensemble support I have seen all winter for a storm.

Wow, the LP looked stronger this run. I guess we don't want it to strengthen too much or it could cut on the other side of the mountains, correct? Is there there anything keeping this from happening?

Looks like they are pretty confident in the cold air. 850 temps look to be pretty cold as well. Anyone know of what kind of ratios we would be looking at? Pretty clear the back end could have some higher ratio snows. The Kutchera maps at least confirm that it will be averaging higher than 10:1.

Yeah this thing has been pretty locked in for a week already. Kind of nuts. If this lands, it will be the biggest snow for the East this season. Here are MRX's thoughts: Big changes are in store for the late week and weekend as the upper pattern begins to quickly amplify in response to a northern stream shortwave from Alberta that digs south into the plains and phases with a southern stream disturbance along the four-corners. The resulting trough digs into the eastern two-thirds of the CONUS while strong surface high pressure moves into the plains and strengthens a thermal gradient from the western Gulf and across the Tennessee and Ohio Valley. Increasing upper level ascent from a dual jet structure accompanying strong advection of moisture poleward will support a quick increase in precipitation Friday evening/night and continuing into Saturday. A surface low will develop along the baroclinic zone Friday night and move into the Southern Appalachians on Saturday with increasing moisture wrapping around this circulation. At the same time, an anomalous airmass will move into the area as 850mb temperatures crash into the -10 to -15 C range. A quick transition from rain to snow will likely occur late Friday night and into Saturday. There is still a notable amount of uncertainty regarding the actual track of this system, the arrival of the cold air and just how much left over moisture will be available. What is more certain is that temperatures will be well below normal Saturday and Saturday night. Highs on Saturday will struggle to get much above freezing with expected cloud cover along with cold air advection. NBM suggests highs in the lower to mid 30`s across most locations which is already several degree cooler than NBM guidance 24 hours ago. Saturday nights lows will likely crash into the teens to lower 20`s which is 15-20 degrees below normal

MRX looks like they are finally taking the system seriously. Huge Euro run last night. 6z GFS took a step back. Let's see what the 12z suite bring us today.

Wow total cave by the Euro. It made a small adjustment towards the GFS last night, but now they are looking almost identical. Crazy this snow is forecast for the first day of Spring Break here.

Euro looks like it has started moving toward the GFS solution last night. Not as high snow totals, but a big jump from 12z.

Same. Just posted in the obs thread. The radar looks juiced too. Showing snow to the north west. Any obs from the Plateau? Like even if it is just rain here, the radar is showing a lot more moisture than the models did. Earlier too.

Started sleeting here. Pretty large sleet pellets. Don't know if I have seen any so big. Like mini hail balls. lol

Just heard a rumble of thunder. Got 1.54 inches of rain so far today...looking at the radar, it looks a bit more robust than the even the latest NAM . Neighbor's yard ponding up already. Going to boat to work tomorrow at this point I suppose.

Even with the GFS, the temps seem to warm pretty quickly after the snow falls. Still wouldn't mind a quick thump.

Heard thunder early this AM. TIMs model is showing a chance for snow!

Yeah, better there than north. I noticed yesterday the Euro 12z had it far north (like in Ohio) while the GFS had it crushed SE in the Atlantic. Looks like models are trending toward the middle today. Have my doubts for TYS, but I hope someone can score with this storm! Cold temps definitely seem on deck for all.

Me after looking at the 12z GFS