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CAPE

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Everything posted by CAPE

  1. CAPE
    Rain amounts look paltry for much of the area through Saturday evening on the 6z GFS.
  2. CAPE
    Mount Holly downplaying it as well based on last few model cycles. Forecast guidance continues to step back from the severe weather potential for Thursday, though the situation remains in a bit of a flux. A few things are working in favor for a diminished severe potential: 1) Guidance continues to trend further south with the track of our system, lending to a cooler, cloudier day 2) Convective-allowing models are suggesting an overnight MCS across the southern Mid Atlantic will lift northward along a warm front and arrive around or shortly after daybreak Thursday, largely robbing our region of instability for much of the day. Because so much of the aforementioned elements depend on the evolution of severe weather occuring across the Tennessee River Valley today, there remains a higher than usual level of uncertainty within our forecast. At any rate, the warm front and how far north it is able to travel will be the limiting reagent for our weather tomorrow. North of the front will remain cloudy, showery, and overall dreary with temperatures stuck in the mid to upper 60s with an easterly flow. South of the front, warmer temperatures in the 70s with diurnal heating will lend to more instability developing through the day, resulting in a higher severe weather risk. At this point in the forecast, the frontal boundary is expected to stall out just south of the Delmarva Peninsula, keeping much of the severe weather potential in our forecast area suppressed. At this point I hope I can get a quarter inch or so of rain out of this. The modest rain over the weekend didn't do very much.
  3. CAPE
    Yeah the Euro is a bit more amplified, with the surface low positioned initially further north and a little stronger than most other guidance.
  4. CAPE
    The trend tomorrow as the low passes by to our north is drying with westerly downsloping winds and lowering dewpoints. Thursday is a better setup with the low track and a southerly warm, moist feed out in front over the region, especially east of the higher terrain.
  5. CAPE
    Mount Holly mentions the potential in their morning AFD, but low probability for any convection to initiate. For Wednesday, a weak area of low pressure passes by to the north as it moves from upstate NY into New England. An initial round of showers and storms associated with the system`s warm front will be moving out through the first part of the morning with skies then clearing and temperatures shooting up as the area breaks into the system`s warm sector. Expect afternoon highs generally in the low to mid 80s across the area except 70s right near the immediate coast and over the southern Poconos. Dew points will climb into the low to mid 60s through the late morning but then should actually start to come down in the afternoon as a very weak cold front starts to move through and the winds turns more westerly. During the warmest part of the day dew points should be mainly in the upper 50s to low 60s which isn`t too high. There could be some isolated afternoon showers/storms developing but these would be few and far between as it should otherwise be dry through the latter part of the day. It is worth mentioning though that should any showers/storms develop they could become severe as winds aloft will will be quite strong with inverted-V soundings in the lower levels. Damaging winds would be the threat.
  6. CAPE
    The holes they bore are 3/8 to 1/2 inch diameter. Most traps the holes are drilled to half inch. Good luck!
  7. CAPE
    Drilled on an upward angle. The idea is once the bee gets in, it only sees light at the bottom and goes there thinking its the way out.
  8. CAPE
    Some persistent light to moderate rain this afternoon after the spits and drizzle of this morning. Up to 0.65" for the event.
  9. CAPE
    Dw, we go from 50s and damp right back to 80s and humid in a blink. Seems impossible to get a few sunny days in the low 70s with a nice breeze and low dews.
  10. CAPE
    The rain here has helped the areas I had already been watering, but outside of that a good soaking rain is needed.
  11. CAPE
    A few light sprinkles this morning. Mostly an annoyance and doing nothing for the dry conditions. 0.44" for the 'event' so far. Just enough to dampen the top eighth inch of soil. Powdery dry under that.
  12. CAPE
    Don't forget the mushrooms. For pictures I mean.
  13. CAPE
    @nw baltimore wx Here is one located on the deck skirting on the front of my house- it's a hot spot. All those bees captured since that initial hot spell in April.
  14. CAPE
    Google Carpenter bee traps. You can buy them or make your own. As the owner of a log cabin in an area with plenty of carpenter bees, I've found these to be the only effective solution. Key is to place them in areas where bees tend to drill- if there are previous infestations, puff delta dust (or pump WD40 lol) in the holes-which are up to a foot long and always take a 90 degree turn from the opening. Once the queen/larvae are eradicated, plug the hole and place a trap there. Best done at the end of summer/early Fall. Next Spring when they return, you got em'. It's effing glorious. If you plug the hole and leave anything alive in there, the woodpeckers will come and peck out the whole channel, requiring repair of the wood. I made all these mistakes years ago not knowing the nature of it.
  15. CAPE
    After a brief heavy downpour this morning, been getting on and off mostly light rain. All adds up to 0.34". More than I expected over here based on the 12z and 18z runs yesterday. Looks like its moving out for now. Maybe I can get a little outside work done later this afternoon.
  16. CAPE
    Just had a heavy downpour here. Picked up a quick tenth of an inch. Pretty surprised to see anything this morning as most guidance had any shower activity dissipating as it moved eastward into the HP. It is actually weakening and breaking apart but managed to get underneath a heavier cell. Most rain I have seen in weeks.
  17. CAPE
    Raw out there now. 52 and mostly cloudy.
  18. CAPE
    Rainfall generally looks pretty meager here across guidance through the weekend. I'll probably do a significant watering tomorrow morning in anticipation. Soil is super dry now.
  19. CAPE
    Sipping on this for (early) Friday HH. Very good. https://lonepinebrewery.com/beers/collaborations/imperial-maple-sunday/
  20. CAPE
    Beautiful day. Been no higher than 60 with a stiff east breeze, partly sunny.
  21. CAPE
    Isn't this the May MR/LR thread? December a hella long way off. What a start lol.
  22. CAPE
    88 here. Overperformer.
  23. CAPE
    Os need a closer who isn't 35 and trying to hang on to something that's gone. Brutal loss to lose 2 out of 3 to the lowly As.
  24. CAPE
    80 and humid in late April is so easy with a simple shift in the flow from NE to S/SW. It was 55 yesterday. It's gonna get really gross(as usual) in the coming months.
  25. CAPE
    Monkey brains. Definitely no resemblance to an orange, other than the size. I guess that's it.
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