CAPE

From Mount Holly AFD early this morning- Strong warm advection/isentropic lift and elevated instability will contribute to several rounds of showers, heavy at times, during the bulk of Wednesday as warm front moves northward aloft. That part is key...surface warm front, by contrast, looks likely to end up pretty stuck across the southern Delmarva through Wednesday. It may creep north slightly, but right now the I-95 corridor and points north still look most likely to stay in the relative cool sector, with highs in the 40s to lower 50s. Meanwhile, south of the front, highs surge into the 60s across southern Delaware and the lower eastern shore of Maryland. And this is what could make things more interesting in terms of severe potential as we get into the afternoon and early evening period as the triple-point low develops just to our southwest and tracks along the stalled front into the Delmarva and eventually far southern NJ.Depending on available instability, this could be a focal point for severe weather thanks to the enhanced shear along the warm front. SPC has placed a slight risk of severe weather across our extreme southernmost zones for Wednesday with the MARGINAL risk for severe weather extending a bit farther north through the remainder of Delmarva and then extending east through southern most NJ. Given the very strong shear, forcing, and "thick" CAPE values near 700 mb the set up could result in elevated supercells. Large hail and damaging winds look to be the biggest threats but we can`t rule out one or two tornadoes over southern Delmarva where there will be more in the way of surface instability.

0.84" today, mostly from the t-storms that moved through this morning. 1.66" total

0.82" from round one.

This is classic elevated convection associated with the stalled boundary, with warm air riding up and over the colder air at the surface(isentropic lift). If you look at the soundings you can see the temp inversion, which indicates the front in the vertical.

The front is draped across the region from NW to SE. I am almost too far north over here. Hell of a storm just to my south right now. Booming thunder.

Thunder and lightning and heavy rain. Temp 48. Welcome to April.

Initially the precip will be from disturbances riding along a west to east stalled boundary. By mid week a coastal low will develop. The result will be multiple rounds of rain and likely 2-3"+ across much of the region. Even the local desert climo areas should do pretty well. Hoping for an underperformer here.

The Os are pretty good.

6.52" for the month. With some shower chances late Saturday and rain in the forecast for Sunday night, pretty good chance of exceeding 7".

Rooting for little to no additional rain here. It looks like the heavier stuff will stay to the east at this point.

Another soaking rain. 0.88" since late afternoon yesterday. Looks like an additional 1/2 "+ today over here. Baltimore looks to be on the western fringe and precip should be moving out mid to late afternoon, so hopefully Os opening day won't be impacted much if at all.

Yes there is always a lot of interest and discussion around here when some sort of accident involving a merchant ship occurs.

This is a good channel for anything involving the shipping industry. Here he syncs the video footage with the marine traffic tracking software and explains what is likely occurring at key points . Great watch.

High of 48 after a low of 29. Awesome day.

Yeah and it isn't ugly. It has become more prolific over the last couple years in certain places though. I can't maintain more than a small area of decent grass, so it is mostly a combo of moss, clover, dandelions, and now violet everywhere else. Doesn't look nice when it takes over the mulch areas though.

I decided to wage a bit of a battle with wild violet. Futile I know. I just want to keep it from completely taking over the mulched plant beds. Ripping the roots out but they are dense and the rhizomes are extensive. Never ending lol. I'll give it a go to see if it makes any difference. In the end I will probably have to learn to love it, just like my dandelion farm.

Coastal storm with heavy rain followed by wind and cold. MA lowland classic. Low of 29 here. Great day to get some outside work done with a high near 50 and plenty of strong late March sun.

2.33" total Wind picking up now with brightening skies.

Looks like the rain should be over in the next hour. Nice. 2.1". Need the wind to help dry up the water laying all over the place.

Up to 1.4" here. Pouring again after it lightened up some the last couple hours.

Pouring. 0.73" so far.

I'll trade ya for the next couple months.

Much wetter than 12z overall. I think your assessment is off a bit though. Heaviest rain right along and esp east of I-95 near the bay.

The dry weather was nice while it lasted. Now back to the usual heavy, maybe excessive rain. The wind wont be trivial ether. Good old fashioned Nor'easter rainer for the MA. Forecast here is for a half inch tonight and 2-3 tomorrow.

It won't take that long lol. Many will see this look consistently advertised on the seasonal guidance over the next few months and bail.