CAPE

Quite pleasant out now with a nice breeze and thunder in the distance with the new storms firing.

Cool radar loop of new storms firing as an outflow boundary pushes northwest. https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/?parms=DOX-N0B-1-48-100-usa-rad

I'm trying to have a no drink day. So far so good.

Sunny and humid now. 0.87" for the day.

Yeah that might have had something to do with it. Warm front in the vicinity too. Storms were more pulse in nature. That second batch never made it here. Blossomed then disintegrated.

0.8". Initial storm has passed east but looks like maybe round 2 developing just to the west.

Effing deluge here. I wasn't expecting anything like this until much later tonight into tomorrow.

Preliminary NTSB report has been out for a week or so. Interesting and informative read, but still unanswered questions. Plenty of discussion in my world regarding the sequence of events and some of the decisions leading up to the accident. pdf download at the link below- https://www.ntsb.gov/investigations/Pages/DCA24MM031.aspx

Some rumbles of thunder and moderate rain at my place. Looks like places just further south and east will do the best based on the position of the stalled front.

A few have popped up here and there over the last week, but nothing unusual. I usually see a fair amount with all the trees and shade.

Pretty much peak lawn here(such that it is). Even with the clover and various other non-grass products mixed in, it is thick and lush and green. One month until the solstice, and it will be starting to struggle by then, and then it's all downhill on the way to mostly thatch by the end of July. The rinse and repeat will start a few weeks later. If only the days started getting shorter after today lol.

Looks like another cold front will stall across/just south of us end of the week. That could mean clouds with periods of showers through the weekend.

0.32" today and 2.43" for the month. Coolish more than warm and humid. Good balance of cloudy days and sun. I'll take this any day for May. Goldilocks.

Some of our recent weather reminds me of Summer in UK. I was there for two weeks in early August last year and I loved it. There was quite a bit of sun mixed in with cloudy damp days, but the warmest was a few days in the mid 70s. Best part is I was able to delete 2 weeks of experiencing protracted heat and humidity by not being here lol. It was gross returning to Philly and sweating on the shuttle from the Airport to the parking spot.

It will pass soon enough, to be replaced by months of relentless heat and humidity. I will enjoy the coolish, cloudy days while it lasts.

Rain was over by noon here. Ended up with 0.70". Cloudy, cool, gloomy day.

Light to moderate rain falling this morning. 0.43". Most of it since midnight.

0.35" since midnight, most of that falling with the showers that came through this afternoon.

I got up at 4am and walked down to the end of my driveway. Looked up and the big dipper was right there. Beautiful starry sky but didn't see any Aurora action. I was looking west/nw. With the tree line I couldn't see due north or NE, and being half asleep I didn't feel like taking a drive. Congrats to those who saw it.

52 and drizzle

Picked up 0.35" with a loud storm around 2am.

Rain amounts look paltry for much of the area through Saturday evening on the 6z GFS.

Mount Holly downplaying it as well based on last few model cycles. Forecast guidance continues to step back from the severe weather potential for Thursday, though the situation remains in a bit of a flux. A few things are working in favor for a diminished severe potential: 1) Guidance continues to trend further south with the track of our system, lending to a cooler, cloudier day 2) Convective-allowing models are suggesting an overnight MCS across the southern Mid Atlantic will lift northward along a warm front and arrive around or shortly after daybreak Thursday, largely robbing our region of instability for much of the day. Because so much of the aforementioned elements depend on the evolution of severe weather occuring across the Tennessee River Valley today, there remains a higher than usual level of uncertainty within our forecast. At any rate, the warm front and how far north it is able to travel will be the limiting reagent for our weather tomorrow. North of the front will remain cloudy, showery, and overall dreary with temperatures stuck in the mid to upper 60s with an easterly flow. South of the front, warmer temperatures in the 70s with diurnal heating will lend to more instability developing through the day, resulting in a higher severe weather risk. At this point in the forecast, the frontal boundary is expected to stall out just south of the Delmarva Peninsula, keeping much of the severe weather potential in our forecast area suppressed. At this point I hope I can get a quarter inch or so of rain out of this. The modest rain over the weekend didn't do very much.

Yeah the Euro is a bit more amplified, with the surface low positioned initially further north and a little stronger than most other guidance.

The trend tomorrow as the low passes by to our north is drying with westerly downsloping winds and lowering dewpoints. Thursday is a better setup with the low track and a southerly warm, moist feed out in front over the region, especially east of the higher terrain.