CAPE

After some morning sun and calm, clouds rolled in quickly and the wind just picked up dramatically. Moderate shower now.

0.63" 3.15" for the month. The seasonal wetland is expansive and knee deep in places. Just put some larvicide in, 2 weeks earlier than normal. Last year at this time the water table in that area was still below the surface.

0.48" Looks like one last line of showers may come through with the front after midnight.

Yeah, so why post these maps lol. Pure fantasy at day 15, even in the heart of winter.

Most of the depicted looks we have seen this winter have been flawed in one way or another in the LR. Plenty of (probably) unwarranted excitement(me included) about the NAO domain in particular at range, as there were signs over a series of ens runs that it wasn't going to be a sustained legitimate block, but rather more of a transient, weaker feature induced by wave breaking. The guidance also largely duped us with the strength/position of the Aleutian low. That said, we fail plenty with so called 'ideal' patterns, and score in those that are flawed. As you know, weird things can happen as we get into early Spring, but snow in the lowlands has become more unlikely recently, esp in the cities.

Depends on the exact outcome desired. A relatively small scale, well timed wave(at night) tracking underneath with some dynamics and cold/dry air in place can produce a moderate event in late March. It has happened here a few times. Its one of those deals where it snows hard with the temp falling to freezing overnight, and by mid afternoon the next day its 45 and pretty much gone.

Because advertised favorable h5 looks like this 10+ days out cannot be ignored, and almost always verify and deliver. We have the last 3 months as solid evidence. Give your lawn a close buzz in preparation.

.07" Looks like the heavier showers this evening might pass mostly south of here. I would love for this to bust, not that this area was forecast to get the heavier rain. Most guidance had a half inch or so total.

Not a drop here yet. Not mad about it. Hopefully it all misses. Been outside getting some yard work done.

Early prediction for next winter- moderate to heavy snow event in the first 10 days of January for the lowlands. Easy.

Late freezes don't have any meaningful impact on bugs. I mean, they manage to survive the winter. But speaking of the Spring woodland wetland, given the recent mild/wet spell, and the heat coming this week, first round of larvicide is going in this weekend. I have never done it this early before, but not taking any chances.

PD? this would be closer to Easter. We always get KUs near Easter.

Those people includes you. Or did you move?

That low is inland actually. Pretty low chance for frozen with that track in the lowlands. Not in late March. Head to Canaan.

For those who want to see snow in marginal events with low pressure hugging the coast- especially in Spring- they know what to do!

Lots of buds on the trees with some leaf out here at work in Easton. March is the new April.

1.2" here today. Good thing the the storm the other day underperformed. Only 0.32" from that. Ditches full/overflowing, water laying all over the place.

Pouring over here. Can't wait for more this weekend.

As I said many days ago, I am done chasing modeled epic h5 patterns at this juncture. If there is a legit signal for a snow event for the lowlands inside 7 days, I will show some interest. Unlikely, but not impossible. Btw, 'lowlands' includes you too Ji. 350 feet? lol

One is reality, the other fantasy.

The Ji-WW alliance lol.

The rest of us just don't care at this point.

"Supposed professional". Sure sounds like it. Not cool.

I wanted a Modoki with - -AO/NAO. This wasn't that. Not even close. We may never know if a 2009-10 Nino could produce anything close today.

Yeah, I have moved on to a 120. Only 1 left after this. Now that's a situation that demands some attention.