Jump to content

CAPE

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    33,853

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Everything posted by CAPE

  1. CAPE
    You keep doing this. Now isn't then. Who exactly are you trying to convince?
  2. CAPE
    The low track might be good, but look up top. No block/+NAO produces an inverted UL/surface from ideal. Damn near a 1050 mb high exiting stage right off of Atlantic Canada. Not a winning look for snow in our area.
  3. CAPE
    Ofc the GFS/GEFS keep hinting at something around March 1, but the EPS and GEPS don't seem too interested.
  4. CAPE
    I see it. Skeptical. Regardless I have passed the point of having much interest in pattern chasing. Parts of the region may very well have a shot at something mid month, but I will do the Bob Chill thing and if I see something that looks interesting inside of 7 days, I'll start paying attention.
  5. CAPE
    The obvious classic example of a developing sustained NA block. Holy shit this progression was epic. We all know how it ended up. Will we ever see it again?
  6. CAPE
    Could end up better, but a typical sustained NA blocking pattern that develops via a retrograding Scandi ridge I don't think would feature a south central Canada ridge immediately leading in(there should be lower h5 heights there). We have seen this same look previously this winter and the models were dead wrong on the depicted outcome, as it instead ended up a transient/weak -NAO and not a true block.
  7. CAPE
    Try not to be dumb.
  8. CAPE
    That certainly could happen. We don't need a sustained block in March to get some snow. Timing as usual, and some wild shit can happen with flawed patterns and shorter wavelengths.
  9. CAPE
    Not sure about this. Looking at the depiction at the end of the ens runs, and continuing forward with the extended products, it looks like the same progression we had previously that led to nothing more than a rather weak, transient -NAO. There were hints of a retrograding Scandi ridge then too, but it was a unicorn. Just going with persistence, I don't think a legit(stable) NA block is in the cards this winter, not that it would make much difference in mid to late March anyway.
  10. CAPE
    I used to be bitter, or so I was told lol. I forget how that started. Speaking of bitter(s), just made an old fashioned, with quite a bite. Delicious. In other news, HH GFS has a completely new look for March 1st. Not surprising. Now we torch lol.
  11. CAPE
    Apparently there isn't much to discuss wrt prospects for cold/snow for what's left of this winter. Might as well prepare ourselves for next winter's inevitable disaster.
  12. CAPE
    Picked this up today. Drinking one for HH. Love KBS, but never tried this one before. This is damn good. Might have another.
  13. CAPE
    Nice. Take a trip NW to the highlands and its pretty likely you will see snow.
  14. CAPE
    This type of pattern(-EPO) is not uncommon at times in a Nina, and can bring legit cold. Flow tends to be progressive and the disturbances are mostly/all NS, but with amplification can dig southward enough to track underneath. Jan 22 is a good example. -EPO/+PNA was the mechanism for cold plus waves digging further south than typical. A transient -NAO/50-50 low may have led to a better outcome for areas inland.
  15. CAPE
    Found it. PSU2 storm? It's happening ! this time.
  16. CAPE
    Yeah activity is largely suppressed. Guidance is forecasting it to emerge in phase 4 in the LR and extrapolating, enhanced convection. There are other mechanisms that have significant influence on the NPAC jet. What's the current/forecasted state of EAMT?
  17. CAPE
    MJO influences the Pac jet. Pretty sure forcing in phases 2-3-4 is associated with retraction. Ofc there are other mechanisms at play. Most of this is above my pay grade.
  18. CAPE
    Suppressed MJO predicted to emerge again near the MC, Pacific jet retraction. Ofc the PDO. Much more Nina like.
  19. CAPE
    It is going to be a Nina, but assuming a Modoki is the likely outcome at this juncture is silly for a multitude of reasons. It's almost entirely based on the latest CanSIPS run 7 months out lol.
  20. CAPE
    GEFS persists with this look for early March. Weak signal for frozen with advertised temps slightly below average. GEPS has it to a lesser degree, but the EPS doesn't like it.
  21. CAPE
    We just cannot know.
  22. CAPE
    I like his enthusiasm. I try to be optimistic, but he outdoes me by a lot lol. He will learn and become jaded like the rest of us older fucks.
  23. CAPE
    They suck. When the MJO never progresses east of the MC for more than 5 minutes, it isn't much of a Nino.
  24. CAPE
    Just bring me a fresh pure Nina, with some periods of cross polar flow, and I will take my chances. Beach chase, whatever it takes. Can always go north or to the western highlands for snow in any winter, regardless of ENSO.
  25. CAPE
    But this Nino was impotent. Any 'hangover' would be pretty lame.
×
×
  • Create New...