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CAPE

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  1. CAPE
    The WPO is forecast to be significantly negative for the last week of the month. The advertised orientation of the ridge can help offset the -PNA some, and the EPO is forecast to be only slightly positive before rising some the last few days of the month. AO and NAO look to be negative, but not severely. If all this verifies then the only 'unfavorable' index is the PNA, which is forecast to trend less negative from the 20th through the end of the month.
  2. CAPE
    lol I don't think he likes the last week of Feb for cold. -PNA eta: +EPO!
  3. CAPE
    I've been posting about that period in the other thread. The 'good' pattern has been getting delayed a bit but beyond the 20th has been looking more favorable on the ens means, with hints of storms.
  4. CAPE
    This is all silliness and has no relevance to what actually occurs. Weather does what it does when it does. Doesn't give a fuck about weekend rules or whatever else.
  5. CAPE
    A few
  6. CAPE
    This period doesn't look quite as good as it did a few days ago, but guidance is hinting at a few chances for wintery weather. Still have a developing -WPO and a decent NA look with a modestly -NAO and tendency for lower heights in the 50-50 region. Yes the trough out west is not ideal, but also not a death knell given the other h5 features. Still looks like a somewhat colder regime is in the works based on the HL upper level flow.
  7. CAPE
    What we have is time- time for the models to converge on the perfect phase...time for the upper levels to align so that we somehow have a cold feed from the north into a pacific airmass.. and then the perfect track/ strong low pressure with heavy precip and dynamic cooling. All meteorologically possible!
  8. CAPE
    Is there any other model that giveth hopium? Just the CMC Lets fucking go!?
  9. CAPE
    More detailed discussion in the other thread including the 0z Canadian run.
  10. CAPE
    The 0z CMC is pretty much what we want- the 50-50 low is strong and somewhat displaced southward, locking in HP to the north. There is no phase and the developing coastal low is relatively weak, but good enough and the track is close to ideal.
  11. CAPE
    The other problem with this run is, where's the 50-50 low? If it were in place, as that low strengthens and moves off the coast a bit it would probably snow.
  12. CAPE
    @Ji Unlike the 6z run yesterday which had a perfect phase with the NS vorticity digging southward in behind the SS energy at the right time, the latest 6z run has a 'bad' phase. That NS piece is strong and gets involved too late, but rapidly intensifies what was a weak surface low, and its initially too close to the coast. Next panel-
  13. CAPE
    This was the ultimate way to win for the region, but a complete thread the needle with the perfect phase and that intense vortex near the 50-50 region
  14. CAPE
    I think there is a very narrow path to victory for this, and the Canadian is probably close to it. The track and strength of the low is critical with the lack of antecedent cold. It probably will take heavy precip and dynamic cooling to get accumulating snow for places east of the mountains. Unlikely to see frozen regardless on the coastal plain.
  15. CAPE
    Magnesium supplements usually do the trick. I was taking it for muscle recovery and sleep. But then I found out it had a side effect lol, at least for me. Dose dependent. I backed it off and now ok.
  16. CAPE
    or a nap? maybe a RAP?
  17. CAPE
    No. Some prefer the AI models(also accessible). They aren't physics based in the traditional sense. So I am referring to the 'traditional' model guidance. Euro imo is superior to GFS, CMC, etc.
  18. CAPE
    The legit cold is gone for now. This storm is a thread the needle deal. We might get some decent cold back for the last week of the month. Latest trends on the ensembles aren't the best, but still time.
  19. CAPE
    There's your freebie. Ok back to my thread before the whinging begins.
  20. CAPE
    Still pretty close to something decent for somewhere in our region. Stay vigilant.
  21. CAPE
    Yeah its a weakling until it gets further offshore. No phase at h5- the NS wave sharpens but too late and doesn't go negative in time.
  22. CAPE
    Don't forget the pure heavy snow event for eastern NC while we smoked cirrus. We missed that one and have had nothing since. Piss and moan over- at least i am in the appropriate thread for it lol.
  23. CAPE
    Even that starts upstairs.
  24. CAPE
    High of 42
  25. CAPE
    I should have posted that in the other thread because most here only care about the surface- specifically snow maps. It all happens upstairs.
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