CAPE

LOL come on dude with the snow maps 2 weeks out

Long way out so I would expand that window a bit.. The NA looks very favorable and I know Chuck will swoop in here and do his -PNA deb thing, but this works out at times(more so in a Nino) with potentially significant energy ejecting eastward from the SW.

lol

Never occurred to me to look at the RGEM at this point but since Mt Holly mentioned it.. Not sure how much difference this makes but it is wester in the upper levels- also at the end of its run.

Pretty interesting AFD from Mt Holly- Forecast models continue to forecast cyclogensis occurring beginning Saturday off the southeast coast with rapidly deepening low pressure depicted to then move north and east Saturday night through Sunday. This will occur due to a potent upper level disturbance pivoting around the base of the long wave trough over the east interacting with the strong baroclinic zone along the coast. In terms of impacts to our forecast area, this hinges on the exact track the storm takes which still remains uncertain at this time. Generally speaking, the latest 12z deterministic guidance has our forecast area near the N/W fringe of the storm`s precip shield. The GFS has shifted slightly farther S/E with the storm track and precip shield compared to the 0z run while the ECMWF has shifted a bit west. There also continues to be spread among the ensembles. One thing that`s interesting to note though is that the RGEM (the Canadian model) appears to be supporting a track near or a bit west of the model consensus based on its placement of upper level features at the end of its run at 84 hours out (7PM Saturday evening). This model generally does very well with these types of large scale winter systems. Potential storm impacts include not just heavy precipitation but also strong winds and coastal flooding as the storm will have a tight pressure gradient with a very strong wind field. Timing wise, the earliest this would arrive is late day Saturday with the brunt of the storm occuring Saturday night into Sunday if we get it. Given the very cold temperatures in place both at the surface and aloft, all snow is strongly favored in terms of precip type. The latest NBM probabilistic data has trended back up a bit. For snow amounts greater than 2 inches (plowable), the range is from around 60-70 percent near the coast to 40-50 percent near the I-95 corridor with lower probabilities N/W of the urban corridor. For 6+ inches, these probs are around 30-40 percent near I-95 up to 50-60 percent near the coast.

They need something after the Belichick snub lol

Looking like a visit to Rehoboth might be the way to go to see some snow in an hours drive. Plus DFH.

Yeah I was just looking at that. HH GFS craps the bed and now the Euro/EPS is trending better..maybe.

There is always a cutoff on the north side. There is a precip shield on the NW side we just aren't in it. That low is pretty far south at that point . As the low moves NE and deepens the precip on the NW side becomes more impressive but its all offshore.

Still ok on the mean

Fuck yeah we are. We will know how this will go sometime Thursday, probably HH.

Better

I need this storm to produce. A fucking blizzard. I talked up the potential and I want it. Hate wasting historic cold.

Mount Holly believes, at least a little. My forecast for the weekend- Friday Mostly sunny, with a high near 19. Friday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 5. Saturday A chance of snow after 1pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 19. Chance of precipitation is 40%. Saturday Night A chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 13. Blustery. Chance of precipitation is 50%. Sunday A chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 25. Blustery. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

You should have held your HH drink up to the right of the cute dog. Would have been a perfect photo lol.

We just cant know at this point. I doubt we will have reasonable agreement among guidance until Thursday.

There is zero chance of that being the actual outcome. And definitely not the 12z run lol. The 12z CMC is more realistic. Too bad it is kind of a crappy model itself.

Is the GFS a serious model anymore?

High of 27. Currently 25.

Snippet from AFD from Mt Holly. Pretty informative even if we don't see direct impacts from the upcoming coastal storm inland. The very cold temperatures and bitter wind chills will persist the remainder of the week and beyond. This will occur due to a deep upper level trough centered over Eastern Canada with repeated re-enforcing shots of arctic air swinging in from the north and west around this feature. For Wednesday night through Saturday, expect morning low temperatures in the single digits to negative single digits with each morning actually looking slightly colder than the previous one due to these re-enforcing shots of arctic air. More importantly, there will be at least some winds through most of this period with early morning wind chills still expected to be sub-zero region wide with negative teens N/W of the I-95 corridor to even around -20 in the southern Poconos. Some moderation in temperatures may occur Sunday into early next week however temperatures still look to be well below average. Overall, it is exceedingly rare to get this combination of length and magnitude of an arctic airmass for this area and it should be taken seriously for those who have to venture out in the cold for extended periods of time. KEY MESSAGE 2...A rapidly deepening storm will develop off the east coast this weekend. While confidence in specific forecast details remains low, the storm could bring at least portions of the area moderate to significant impacts from snow, strong winds, and coastal flooding. Forecast models continue to forecast cyclogensis occurring beginning Saturday off the southeast coast with rapidly deepening low pressure depicted to then move north and east Saturday night through Sunday. This will occur due to a potent upper level disturbance pivoting around the base of the long wave trough over the east interacting with the strong baroclinic zone along the coast. In terms of impacts to our forecast area, this still hinges on the exact track the storm takes which remains uncertain at this time. The latest GFS trended west some and is overall not too different than the GEM. The latest EC is still farther east than these models. It is also worth noting that there continues to be spread in the GFS ensemble members (the GEFS) with the ensemble mean a bit farther east than the deterministic . So this all said, it boils down to whether the storm tracks farther northward along the coast before turning east (bringing the area greater impacts) vs. being quicker to turn east meaning the track would stay farther away bringing more limited impacts. Potential impacts include not just heavy precipitation but also strong winds and coastal flooding as the storm will have a tight pressure gradient with a very strong wind field.

Natty Blend. Damn.

6z mean isn't bad. Better than 0z.

Some fairly subtle changes at h5 on the 6z GFS results in a somewhat better outcome. Have to wait and see if this is a 'trend' or just the typical run to run differences we tend to see at this range.

Go Canada

Its not 'last minute'. Look at the orientation of the ridge over S Canada north of the GLs- it folds over- essentially an anticyclonic wave break