CAPE
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Everything posted by CAPE
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Dammit Chuck, stop canceling winter!! We need a good vibe up in here. Read the room.
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lol only destroyed by those who continue to expect op runs to be consistent 10-15 days out. I'll stop contributing to the stupidity by not making anymore posts about what is possible based on an op run. It's pretty ridiculous how so many long time members of a weather forum still don't understand how this works.
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There isn't an established block this run. That high is gonna exit stage right lol.
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Facilitated by a legit dipole block that is textbook perfect at h5- that 50-50 low isn't escaping so the upper convergence/confluence to the west is persistent, keeping the high in place in an ideal spot. Hopefully we see something like this at some point in the coming weeks. Nice to see the block having some persistence on the guidance. We gonna need it.
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Classic setup with strong surface HP locked in right where we want it because of the block.
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Hmm.. maybe
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The EPS has the best look in the NA(legit -NAO) heading into early Jan with a flattened flow underneath, despite the awful look out west. At least leaves open the possibility for something to track south of us.
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GFS and CMC Extended are a carbon copy of the Euro Ext(weekles), maybe even a little better. Nice to see that the pattern progression heading into mid Jan is in agreement among the big 3.
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As Ji said, I don't pay much attention to the colors esp on these extended products. Follow the flow. With the EPO ridge and the TPV in that position, that's a cold look.
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Yeah fwiw we get an EPO ridge by mid month and the NA looks decent too. This h5 look has been persistent over multiple runs so we shall see.
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Not always that simple- Depends on the orientation of the ridge/trough combo. There was positively tilted ridge and a less meridional trough underneath allowing for a somewhat flat PNA ridge beneath that. Last couple weeks- As advertised going forward-
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The anomalously strong Aleutian ridge(+EPO/-WPO combo)/downstream deep trough along the west coast is the thorn in our side as advertised going forward, despite indications of a negative NAO developing. A positive sign on all the extended products is a shift in the NPAC pattern with a -EPO developing towards mid Jan, which could be the mechanism to deliver colder air into the central/eastern US going forward.
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31 at 4pm. This view will be gone in the next 24 hours, but nice while it lasted.
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34 is the high for the day. Enjoying the last day of full snow cover. Some bare spots here and there, but pretty impressive how long 2" or less can hang on this time of year with the cold and low sun. Pretty rare to see lately before Xmas.
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Difficult, but not impossible. Most likely it would occur after a significant storm tracks well NW and pulls some transient cold southward- then a well timed wave to move along the boundary. Personally I am not very interested in tracking given the advertised upcoming pattern, but will take the occasional glance at the ens means here and there. I have plenty to do outside and mild, fair weather periods in the winter are an ideal time to get things done. No heat, no bugs, etc.
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It was pretty unlikely that they would start off 1-5, but they did. The OL is what it is but if Lamar is getting back to full health he can mask some of that mess, and if the defense continues to play respectable or better, they can win the next 3. Packers on the road is the toughest one on paper, but they are a bit beat up and can be inconsistent.
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15 Second morning in a row Let the warm up begin.
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lol why ask? Sometimes you need to consider the source and just move on.
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No. Wrong BAM.
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High of 26. Forecast high was 30. Currently 25 and cloudy. Looks like it wants to snow.
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12/5: 1.3" 12/14: 1.8" T: 3.1"
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Good winter but that storm sucked here. 4-5 inches of snow then changed to rain in a heartbeat. A mini version of March 93. Amped storms that hug the coast/track just inland, esp with no blocking, never work out over here.
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They are a young team overachieving a bit. Won 10 in a row! Law of averages. They will lose another one. Also its the last home game for the Ravens and they have already guaranteed themselves a losing record at home- should be pissed off about that. Last 2 at Packers and at Steelers. Bottom line is they need them all to guarantee the playoffs.
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Defense was excellent. Need to see that continue. Win the next 3 and the win the division. Easier said than done though.
