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CAPE

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  1. CAPE
    A loud t-storm rolled through early this morning around 2 am. Had some booming thunder. Picked up another 0.65" to go along with the 0.45" last evening.
  2. CAPE

    Drought

    CAPE replied to North Balti Zen's topic in Mid Atlantic

    I am right in that hole over the upper Delmarva. No rain here in 2 weeks. Been running the sprinkler but grass still getting torched. Oh well, pretty used to it, as the rain we get this time of year is of the feast/famine variety. With the high sun and typical July heat, my yard cant survive without water for more than a few days.
  3. CAPE
    We always get our share of hot humid days. Just a matter of how many and the duration of any hot spell. I would be content if we can manage to avoid a 7-10 day stretch of 90s with no rain.
  4. CAPE
    I dont care where it falls, as long as I miss most of it here. Was literally a swarm of mosquitoes when I opened the door on my jeep when I got home. Major uptick form yesterday. I am going to have to spray some of the nasty stuff soon.
  5. CAPE
    You aren't. Select through Sunday evening. A lot of the heavy stuff is going to fall Sat into Sun, especially northern portions. Euro thinks the heaviest rain will fall in NE MD, N DE, and esp SE PA.
  6. CAPE
    Love me some T & A.
  7. CAPE
    https://weather.us/model-charts/euro Its free. Pick your parameters.
  8. CAPE
    Mount Holly highlighting the threat in their afternoon AFD as well- The forecast gets more complex Friday night into Saturday. Upper level trough will dive south and east from the Great Lakes and looks to evolve into slow moving closed upper level low near or just south of the region. Meanwhile at the surface, a cold front will move down from the north and stall somewhere in the central to southern part of the CWA by late Saturday with an associated low developing along it. This is a concerning set up as these factors will likely lead to continuing showers and embedded storms affecting much of the region. In fact precipitation will likely be more widespread by this time with instability decreasing north of the front over northern portions of the forecast area. PWATs look to remain in the neighborhood of 2 inches so this will unfortunately mean a continuing flash flood threat with the threat of river flooding also a possibility by the middle to latter part of the weekend given the duration and more widespread nature of the precip by this time. Will highlight this in the HWO. This is still a few days away and forecast models not in perfect agreement on the details but all are indicating this increasing potential of widespread moderate to heavy rain over the weekend.
  9. CAPE
    Obviously the topography cant be controlled, but the land development in the elevated areas all around the town absolutely exacerbates the threat- all the concrete and roads and artificial drainage to keep those areas dry(and in turn reduces the natural absorption/drainage) has forced more run off down into that town and it was already precarious by the fact it sits at the convergence of multiple stream/river valleys. Its also just really bad luck this happened yet again. I made a post a couple days before this, based on the modeled potential for slow moving/training storms, that I hoped it all would manage to avoid Ellicott City. Of course I really never thought this would happen again, just 2 years later. Really sad.
  10. CAPE
    I cant be bothered with attempting to maintain a "nice" lawn here. Just too many issues- I am in the woods, completely surrounded by big trees. Plenty of moles around. The soil is silt/sand and very well drained. I re-seeded last fall and put down pre-emergent and fertilizer in mid March. I now have a lush looking "lawn" that includes the grass(turf type tall fescue custom blend for this area), lots of clover, and plenty of dandelions and other weeds. And I am totally good with it. I could try to kill the clover, but then when we go hot and dry in mid summer, I will likely be looking at dirt, so I wont do that. I might put down another bag of fertilizer just for the heck of it- my soil is probably lacking in nitrogen which would explain the proliferation of clover. I have totally embraced the clover though, and the moss- both are green! Good enough. Better than looking at thatch and dirt in July.
  11. CAPE
    NAM nest seems to like late tonight into tomorrow AM and then again tomorrow night/Mon AM for best storm chances.
  12. CAPE
    and possible slow moving/training storms leading to flash floods: Of concern is the anomalously high PWATs progged to rise over 2 inches. Also, forecast profiles indicate a modest LLJ with slight veering in the profile and light winds aloft...suggesting slow moving and/or backbuilding and training of cells. Thus, though severe threat should diminish through the evening very heavy rainfall with the threat of urban, small stream and even flash flooding will continue with these storms into the overnight. In fact pattern even looks to resemble Maddox Frontal Pattern identified in some flash flood cases. Highest threat area for heavy rainfall and associated hydro issues looks to be Philly to Trenton and points south.
  13. CAPE
    Latest ENSO update from CPC favors neutral conditions through summer and into early fall. Beyond that there is a 50% chance we go from neutral conditions to an El Nino by winter. It is way out there, so take it fwiw. I am no expert but it seems unlikely we see legit Nino conditions develop this summer.
  14. CAPE
    Some gusty winds here with the heavy rain. Plenty of T & L. No hail to this point. Mainly just some much needed rain. 0.62" so far. The total here for May until today was 0.05". eta- over an inch now. Still coming down hard.
  15. CAPE
    That line moving into Kent county will likely stay north of here. I will be watching for developing cells on outflow or low level bay/sea breeze boundaries.
  16. CAPE
    I guess maybe I should figure out where my safe place is. lol.
  17. CAPE

    Drought

    CAPE replied to North Balti Zen's topic in Mid Atlantic

    Noticeably dry here in the past week. Soil getting a bit dusty for the first time in months. I think the last big event was a couple weeks ago with the 2 part deal in late March- mostly rain/sleet here for part one and the heavy wet snow for part 2. Been really nothing significant since then. 0.11" for April.
  18. CAPE

    Drought

    CAPE replied to North Balti Zen's topic in Mid Atlantic

    Yeah the biggest issue with winter drought for most in this forum is it = little snow lol
  19. CAPE

    Drought

    CAPE replied to North Balti Zen's topic in Mid Atlantic

    Cant imagine its still abnormally dry here, but I guess its possible. I ended up with 3.8" for Jan.
  20. CAPE
    Was that the total for the whole event? I saw some reports from southern DE of up to 7" from Friday night alone. I would love to see some other event totals from the lower Delmarva.
  21. CAPE
    You might get another 3-6 today.
  22. CAPE
    Another 20-30 miles NW and I am in the bullseye I sincerely hope SBY and the beaches get 6"+. I had such a great time at Rehoboth for that cold powder bomb in early Jan.
  23. CAPE
    Here are some official totals from Mount Holly for the 1/7 storm for southern DE- ...SUSSEX COUNTY... OCEAN VIEW 13.5 625 PM 1/07 TRAINED SPOTTER SELBYVILLE 13.0 604 PM 1/07 TRAINED SPOTTER SEAFORD 9.0 550 PM 1/07 TRAINED SPOTTER LAUREL 8.0 538 PM 1/07 DEOS ELLENDALE 6.6 537 PM 1/07 DEOS 7 E SELBYVILLE 6.5 600 AM 1/08 COCORAHS STOCKLEY 6.2 537 PM 1/07 DEOS BRIDGEVILLE 6.1 538 PM 1/07 DEOS 1 W MILLSBORO 6.1 800 AM 1/08 COCORAHS BLADES 6.0 545 PM 1/07 TRAINED SPOTTER NASSAU 5.8 600 PM 1/07 DEOS I was in Rehoboth and there was unofficially 10" there for the 1/7 event. Lewes I thought I saw a report of 12" somewhere. I don't have any official totals for the 1/30 event, but I know there was a 2-4" area in southern DE for that one. Hope this helps!
  24. CAPE
    That one storm made this wretched winter bearable. Who would have thunk it- the best pure snow event of the season for our region occurred at the beaches. Cold dry powder with drifting too. I had 2 great days at Rehoboth, then came home to 6" on the ground and that stuck around for 3 more days. I got a nice snow hike in at Tuckahoe. Good 5 day stretch of winter, and in early January to boot. But that was all she wrote.
  25. CAPE
    Nope. 1.2" here. Hoping to see some reports from Delaware. Best banding has persistently been in Sussex County. Must be some 4' amounts there.
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