CAPE

I enjoyed interacting with Mitch here. We would have had probably 10 posts on the CFSv2 by now lol. Too bad he decided to leave, for whatever his reasons were.

Agree, and its not bad even towards the end, but in the context of the concerns of a +AO look, it does lean that way the latter part of November. IIRC last week's edition had the higher h5 height and MSLP anomalies in the AO domain, and actually increased the blocky look over GL towards the end of the run. But again, its a tool with limited skill 30+ days out, esp. when considering only a single run. If 2 or 3 consecutive runs tend to show the same pattern evolution in the LR, then I pay more attention.

Not surprising, but this weeks edition looks quite different than last weeks as we progress into Nov. It does look progressively less favorable up top in the second half of November. As you know, the weeklies can be a "fun" tool to look at 45 days out, but in reality it's based off of one model cycle and best used to get an idea of where things are headed maybe a week beyond day 15.

lol okay.

Low end warning level event here...5" (ducks) We had a solid advisory level event last December IIRC. I think it was 3-3.5" in my yard. Not sure about DC but I think some folks in the northern burbs may have hit warning criteria. You are right though, Decembers have been pretty lean for snow in the DC area in recent years. Going forward it would be nice if Dec could become a winter month for awhile- the new March, and March can revert back to a Spring month.

IIRC he was participating regularly like always last fall and into early winter, then had an illness, and after that he completely stopped posting.

Yeah that was a warm up for what was to come in December. I like what I am seeing on the ensemble runs and imo it would be great to see a favorable pattern set up early. It can relax sometime in November and then drop the hammer for mid December. Front loaded winter for a change.

Practice makes perfect.... or atmospheric memory, or something, lol. GEFS has been hinting at the same sort of look towards the end of the month. EPS weeklies had a good look up top for much of November. Be interesting to see what this week's edition looks like, as the very end of the run will be into December.

I normally don't until Dec 1, but I re-upped my WB this past Friday. I justified it because I distilled down my DirecTV service and I am now saving 20 bucks a month

Man I feel like I am in a different world. Outside getting stuff done- no sweat, and the mosquitoes and chiggers are impotent. Awesome. Currently 56, which is the high for the day. Mostly been in the low 50s. I love fall weather.

Not bad. Not perfect, but hey its preseason.

Yeah whats happening around AK caught my eye too. Also looking for some early hints of HL blocking. Looks like the GEFS kinda wants to develop an east based block towards the end of its run lol. With all the anticipation for an epic winter (lol) I reactivated my WB account early. Just for kicks I looked at the latest EPS weeklies. It's way out there, but it has a favorable h5 look mid to late Nov- Aleutian low, EPO ridge, expansive red/orange colors up top, and building over GL from mid month on. Not very cold verbatim, but it would be November and its silly to over analyze a LR tool. The upshot is the players are on the field and in pretty good position.

I really have no idea how much of a factor it is, but imo Cohen way overplays it. Probably a weak correlation at best. The dude is a self promoter though, and he is more than happy to take credit for cold/snowy outcomes, even when the mechanisms that produced it literally didn't evolve per his theory. Remember the epic snow period in NE, particularly the Boston area, a few winters ago? He gleefully claimed victory.

Time is running out.. If the rate of change of snow advance during October in Eurasia is meager, y'all know what that means- a positive AO winter is a comin'!

Yup. At this juncture just looking for hints and the general idea. I am not hating what the Euro is advertising for the first part of winter. I mean all of met winter looks acceptable on those panels, but realistically Dec is in our sights now.

Ha I was just looking at that view. Looks like some decent +heights over GL for Dec.

Assuming we are in at least a weak Nino, looking at the precip anomalies for Dec, in conjunction with h5, is it wrong for me to be having thoughts of 2009?

Breakfast stout? I probably would have gone with a bloody mary. Goes good with an omelette.

2.63" total here. Was pretty windy early this AM. Lots of tree debris and small branches scattered around. Most importantly, the absurd warmth and humidity is finally gone. Blessed relief! Here is to hoping we don't see any persistent east coast/WA ridging until next June.

Lol the 22z HRRR has like 6" IMBY. 2 would be fine.

Tropical-like deluge here now. Finally some legit rain.

Me too. My 2 week old grass is struggling. With all the trees still in full summer mode and sucking all the moisture out of my well drained soil, no amount of reasonable watering allows the root system to get established deep enough. Still no significant rain today so far- that's nearly 2 weeks now with less than a tenth. My yard needs a legit soaking, ASAP!

Its a tad scary how good things are looking right now. And I really DGAS what happens with Eurasian snow cover over the next few weeks.

Took a quick glance at it. Pretty nice h5 look, and it looks Nino-ish. Not too shabby.

Bring it already. The wait has been long and painful. Just an amazingly long lasting and awful pattern. I cannot recall anything like this in my lifetime. Yeah we can get some warm periods in late Sept into Oct, but the extended period of anomalous warmth and humidity has been remarkable. Hopefully it will be a distant memory very soon.