CAPE

"Stab in the dark" would suggest there isn't any.

I was thinking exactly this as I was driving home.

When I lived up that way I was on a high spot west of Gamber, close to Rt 97. Just over 800 feet. Most cases there was little to no difference between my yard and Westminster. Often there was a noticeable difference driving down to Eldersburg.

The weeklies are another tool, and IMO have limited use if looking at one run in isolation. As you said, they are based off of a single (0z) run, and as expected, can offer some variations from run to run. I like to look at 2-3 consecutive runs, and especially if we are currently in a stable pattern, they can provide some hints about where the overall pattern is headed beyond day 15. When I make reference to them in the disco thread, I try my best to give an objective overview- mostly the 500 mb height pattern- and compare to previous run(s). Sure you can also have a bit of fun with it- I mean looking out beyond 30 days is always fwiw. Not sure anyone should have too much of an emotional investment in what any run of the weeklies is depicting though lol.

Nah that's not part of my shtick.

Agree. Plenty of positive indications, and having the Pacific side 'friendly' is a big part of the battle. That part looks good across pretty much all guidance. Looks like the AO will range from slightly negative to slightly positive over the coming weeks, and hopefully trend more in the negative direction beyond that. NA blocking will probably develop at some point, maybe more so in the second half of winter.

Yeah good points. I would feel a bit better if the latest edition of EPS Weeklies had not backed off (from previous runs) on the idea of at least some NA blocking heading into December though lol.

If it were mid December, it would be hard not to like this h5 look with a surface low headed northbound from eastern GA.

Its preseason. Lets start to get this right now so we get the desired result when it actually counts.

Looking at the 500 mb heights- one noticeable change from the previous run, especially beyond mid Nov, are generally lower heights in the NA. NPAC still looks quite favorable with lower heights near the Aleutians and EPO/PNA ridge. eta- neutral to slighty +AO, +NAO. Pacific driven. Looks changeable overall, with colder/milder periods, but no prolonged warmth. Pretty much what you would expect with no NA blocking.

Possibly yeah. Convoluted at this point on the guidance. The initial low could end up a significant rainer for I-95 and east, and not too much N&W. The trailing energy looks interesting, but might end up developing into more of a threat for our friends to the NE.

Nah lol. Long way to go yet for the late week into next weekend period- and even into the following week. Looks active, with possibly 2 storms moving through the area. At this point the far western highlands (if significant precip gets there) would be the place for any threat of frozen. Probably a long shot for anything other than rain in the western burbs of DC/Baltimore. Certainly not impossible.

See what you've done lad?

Yeah odd Mt Holly decided not to place this area in the frost advisory. maybe they thought the wind wouldn't lighten up in time. 32 here with frost. As you get down to Easton there is little to no frost with temps of 35-36.

He nearly missed that 31 yd FG earlier. I had a feeling too. Hey he was the only kicker never to miss an extra point since they made it longer. He was due. Really bad timing though lol. Reality is, Drew Brees would likely have performed more surgery on the Ravens D in OT. Jimmy Smith was putrid today.

@Bob Chill

Well whatever it is, it will be snow soon enough

Thats what I would think it is given the vertical temp profile, and crashing temps.

Ha! I wont even try to describe the rig I have set up to be able to 'stick' on the steep part of my roof to get access to that side. Good thing is the winds will be blowing from the NW, and I will be in a sheltered nook on the SE side, so I should be ok.

Yeah I will be up on the roof tomorrow applying finish to the logs on the side of the dormer, with 40+ mph wind gusts. Should be fun! I kinda thought your area would over-perform a bit. Throw us flat landers a few pics.

A meteorological impossibility? You sure it wasn't DT?

He plays to a specific audience now- weather weenies, via Twitter. The reality is the TV "weather personality" types are obsolete, just like the sports guy. I mean, other than old people, who also still use land line phones, who really watches that crap? I guess you have to give him some credit for reinventing himself lol. He is awful though.

Might see a couple inches in your area and especially down towards Canaan. Enjoy!

I was at my parents and they had channel 11 on ( I NEVER watch any local news). Tony Pann- shameless Twitter hypester- had a 30% chance of rain/snow for the Baltimore area early Sunday morning. And he made a point of playing up the possibility of seeing snow in the air. Without even looking, I bet there is not a NWS point and click anywhere east of Frostburg with even a mention of a snowflake.

On the latest edition of the EPS weeklies, looking at the 850 mb temp anomalies out to Dec 3, there are about 8 days of (slightly) above, out of 46. The rest are average to below average, with most days being below. Just fwiw lol.