CAPE
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Everything posted by CAPE
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0.66" here yesterday, which is my total for the month.
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Lots of great low rumbling and some booming thunder here from the main action to my SE. Still getting some decent rain here too. Up over 0.60" now.
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Easton down to Cambridge getting crushed.
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0.52" with the main line. The best stuff went just to my south. Still some light to moderate rain but looks to be winding down. Overall I cant complain- first significant rain here in nearly 3 weeks.
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I am right in that hole over the upper Delmarva. No rain here in 2 weeks. Been running the sprinkler but grass still getting torched. Oh well, pretty used to it, as the rain we get this time of year is of the feast/famine variety. With the high sun and typical July heat, my yard cant survive without water for more than a few days.
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Now this was a perfect July day. Awesome evening. Currently 72. Forecast low tonight is 58.
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Beautiful fall-like morning here in the desert. Washed the new jeep, and now about to put a coat of wax on. No worries of mowing anytime soon.
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Yes. And per CPC there is now a 65% chance of an El Nino for the winter months. Get your shovel ready dude.
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Relatively comfortable outside right now here. Noticeably better than the last 2 days at this time. 88/74 with a light breeze.
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Looks like the cells are popping along a local bay breeze "front". Those will probably stay just to my west.
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94/83 here. Today might be more disgusting than yesterday.
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Today was super gross. Currently 90/79
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94/73 Kinda putrid outside.
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I have been running the sprinkler daily since Monday. Its on now. It gets old though, plus when I still see the grass burning despite it, I ultimately realize its completely futile and give up. Probably a couple more days.
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Welcome to July in the MA. The heat is on. Or as the forecaster who wrote the morning AFD for Mount Holly puts it- The broad/strong ridge goes into full-on torch mode today, with 594+ dam 500-mb geopotential heights parked right over the area, supplying downright unpleasant heat.
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We always get our share of hot humid days. Just a matter of how many and the duration of any hot spell. I would be content if we can manage to avoid a 7-10 day stretch of 90s with no rain.
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I dont care where it falls, as long as I miss most of it here. Was literally a swarm of mosquitoes when I opened the door on my jeep when I got home. Major uptick form yesterday. I am going to have to spray some of the nasty stuff soon.
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You aren't. Select through Sunday evening. A lot of the heavy stuff is going to fall Sat into Sun, especially northern portions. Euro thinks the heaviest rain will fall in NE MD, N DE, and esp SE PA.
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Love me some T & A.
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https://weather.us/model-charts/euro Its free. Pick your parameters.
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Mount Holly highlighting the threat in their afternoon AFD as well- The forecast gets more complex Friday night into Saturday. Upper level trough will dive south and east from the Great Lakes and looks to evolve into slow moving closed upper level low near or just south of the region. Meanwhile at the surface, a cold front will move down from the north and stall somewhere in the central to southern part of the CWA by late Saturday with an associated low developing along it. This is a concerning set up as these factors will likely lead to continuing showers and embedded storms affecting much of the region. In fact precipitation will likely be more widespread by this time with instability decreasing north of the front over northern portions of the forecast area. PWATs look to remain in the neighborhood of 2 inches so this will unfortunately mean a continuing flash flood threat with the threat of river flooding also a possibility by the middle to latter part of the weekend given the duration and more widespread nature of the precip by this time. Will highlight this in the HWO. This is still a few days away and forecast models not in perfect agreement on the details but all are indicating this increasing potential of widespread moderate to heavy rain over the weekend.
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Obviously the topography cant be controlled, but the land development in the elevated areas all around the town absolutely exacerbates the threat- all the concrete and roads and artificial drainage to keep those areas dry(and in turn reduces the natural absorption/drainage) has forced more run off down into that town and it was already precarious by the fact it sits at the convergence of multiple stream/river valleys. Its also just really bad luck this happened yet again. I made a post a couple days before this, based on the modeled potential for slow moving/training storms, that I hoped it all would manage to avoid Ellicott City. Of course I really never thought this would happen again, just 2 years later. Really sad.
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I cant be bothered with attempting to maintain a "nice" lawn here. Just too many issues- I am in the woods, completely surrounded by big trees. Plenty of moles around. The soil is silt/sand and very well drained. I re-seeded last fall and put down pre-emergent and fertilizer in mid March. I now have a lush looking "lawn" that includes the grass(turf type tall fescue custom blend for this area), lots of clover, and plenty of dandelions and other weeds. And I am totally good with it. I could try to kill the clover, but then when we go hot and dry in mid summer, I will likely be looking at dirt, so I wont do that. I might put down another bag of fertilizer just for the heck of it- my soil is probably lacking in nitrogen which would explain the proliferation of clover. I have totally embraced the clover though, and the moss- both are green! Good enough. Better than looking at thatch and dirt in July.
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NAM nest seems to like late tonight into tomorrow AM and then again tomorrow night/Mon AM for best storm chances.
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and possible slow moving/training storms leading to flash floods: Of concern is the anomalously high PWATs progged to rise over 2 inches. Also, forecast profiles indicate a modest LLJ with slight veering in the profile and light winds aloft...suggesting slow moving and/or backbuilding and training of cells. Thus, though severe threat should diminish through the evening very heavy rainfall with the threat of urban, small stream and even flash flooding will continue with these storms into the overnight. In fact pattern even looks to resemble Maddox Frontal Pattern identified in some flash flood cases. Highest threat area for heavy rainfall and associated hydro issues looks to be Philly to Trenton and points south.
