CAPE

Dont look at the 16z RAP...basically nada for SBY eta- 17z looks better, and its the extended RAP so its out of its range a tad. It also tends to run warm, but the warm temps going in and the short window are a concern.

12z Euro looks great esp for the lower shore folks...5" for SBY to coastal DE. 3-4" Lower So MD up to Dover.

I like the Euro solution..it gives me about 2" up here, plus it gives Salisbury 4". WIN

PD II probably. Hard to pick honestly. '79, 83, 96, and the 3 biggies in '09-10 I put ahead of this storm. Its all based on location though!

Per Euro you get more than Westminster ha!

12z Euro snowfall per wxbell- SBY 13 Cambridge 19 Easton 19 Dover 20 Lewes 10-12 Lower So MD 20 GREAT run for the whole area. Most everyone is within a couple inches of 20. Higher amounts in mountains of Western VA

I dont know if I really buy that bulls-eye area. Plus the wxbell maps are overdone. 1-2 feet seems likely, and where the best mesoscale banding sets up will determine where the higher amounts end up.

12z GFS snowfall per wxbell- SBY 11 DOV 17 EASTON 21 DC down to So MD 30+

Hard to say at this point. Where you are near the coast, sleet and even rain at the height is possible. Will start as snow, and it will go back to snow as the low pulls away. Per WxBell looks like 6" at Lewes right at the coast. Just few miles inland its 10-12.

Per WxBell, 0z Euro has 16 for S DE, 10 for SBY, 19 for Cambridge, And 20+ N&W of there. Probably overdone, as I believe most of us will see some sleet, even rain on the lower shore.

Was just looking at the 0z GFS ensembles on wxbell, and they look good. Mean snowfall looks better than 12z, even for lower eastern shore. MSLP looks good as well, not tucked inland at the lower bay like the op. Mean is just off the NC coast and moving NE.

One of my favorite all time storms mainly because of the time of year. So rare to get a storm like that here in the mid part of December. Will we ever see a -NAO like that during the winter again...sigh.

I tend to stay out of climate change debates. This is my first time venturing into one of these threads. So please, dont jump me My simplistic view- "Climate" is average weather over some time period. One accepted definition of a period over which we can assess climate for a given region, is 30 years, per the WMO. I believe the inference wrt to climate change is that the industrial age and associated pollution is influencing climate. If we look at the average daily high and low temps, average snowfall, etc for say DC, over the past 30 years, and then the 30 year period prior to that, and then again the 30 year period prior to that, what does the data show? I think everyone(or maybe not) acknowledges that we have polluted the planet over the past 100 years, so the only questions with regard to impact on climate should be to what extent and over how much time. I don't think we have these answers, thus the speculation and debate. What perturbs me are the people that couldn't do a simple heat balance calculation, professing to know anything about such things on a global scale. Unfortunately there is no way to separate ignorance, presumptuousness, and politics from the science.

Looks better than 12 and 18z. Its getting there. 4 km NAM looks like 5-6 inches for coastal DE.

Looks like places SE of Easton are going to have the best shot at 10" on the eastern shore. Snowing moderately up here with close to a half inch so far. I think I may be on the northern fringes of the heavier bands but I am fine with 5-7", even tho the forecast here is 6-10 I think the lower end of that is more likely.. Still have most of the 3 I got in that snow bomb Sat night with the front. Hope SBY and the beaches get creamed!

Good luck. You guys need a good snow event. I got 3" in that amazing thump last night. I would be happy with 5-6 out of this next one.

And upper eastern shore Hope this works out...I know southern areas and esp the lower shore has been left out of the fun a lot in recent winters.

lol yeah... but much worse was yet to follow. I cant recall all the individual events, I would have to go back and dig. But inland areas of the MA got jobbed for sure. Here it was cold with pretty average snowfall. The Boxing day storm was disappointing even tho I did get some decent snow, but literally a 10 minute drive east and there was a foot, and coastal DE had 15".

Yes it was, and I actually did ok over here that winter. Had 19" or so which is about climo avg here. I got some decent scraps on the western edge of the Boxing Day storm, 5" or a bit better.

-NAO became extinct after Feb 2010.

lol. this sucks. Pinnacle of desperation. Let it go.

1. Feb 2003- PDII 2. Feb 1983 3. Dec 2009 4. Feb 1979- PDI 5. Jan 1996(too much sleet) 6. Feb 5 2010

LOL

It wasn't a true blizzard, but given it was mid/late Dec. it was an awesome storm. I mean c'mon 20+ inches! That front end mega band gave me 6 inches in 2 hours. Great stuff.

Thanks. Yours is very cool as well. Is it a log home?