CAPE

That Lamar Jackson TD run was a thing of beauty. Pretty confident in saying there has never been anything quite like that from an NFL QB. Sorry Steve Young and Mike Vick.

Time to get RG3 some snaps.

Another D TD, make it 49-10.

No signs of a let down yet.

I think the AO has chance to go more significantly negative moving forward, so we agree there too. Part of that post I was just giving the current projections on the teleconnections verbatim from the EPS through the end of its run. Things are evolving upstairs in the HL regions, and for now it looks like steady as she goes with continued PV disruptions.

This is where I am with it. If there is to be an area of light accumulations at the tail end, it will probably, oddly enough, be to my east/SE. I think most of us have a shot as seeing snow in the air, whether from the weak wave or instability flurries as the cold moves in.

0z Euro SPV currently, and at the end of the run. It is forecast to undergo continued perturbation from the periphery, ending up with 2 main areas of lower heights.The area of lowest negative height anomalies ends up a bit further north than the current location, but much less consolidated/significantly weaker.

Yeah that's a good way to look at it. My forecast has rain ending as snow, little or no accumulation.

@showmethesnow I see your concern about the lower heights near Bering Strait/Chukchi, but I am not too worried at this point as there is still some ridging over western Canada, and it seems this may be part of a pattern relax/reload. Now if we see those heights persist and lower, and we end up with a blue ball migrating towards the GOA, then there might be a problem. Looking at the strat panels on the Euro, the PV gets elongated but there is still a piece on our side. Verbatim on the EPS, surface temps are average to slightly above from the 20th to the 25th in the east, but if the developments in the NA are real, and the EPAC doesn't further deteriorate, we should see lower heights develop in the eastern US on future ens runs in response.

Low was 28 here around midnight. Currently 33.

I would be surprised to see anything on the ground. Have seen this hundreds of times on guidance, and it almost never materializes. Cold chasing rain. Seeing some flakes fly would be a win.

I like where the advertised pattern is heading in general towards the end of the month. It will become a bit milder for a time. Guidance indicates continued disruptions of the SPV, with some warming and height rises. Just need to keep the SPV on the weak side- a SSWE is not required for a good response in the HL troposphere to allow cold air delivery into the midlatitudes. Looking at the teleconnections on the EPS, AO stays slightly negative, NAO trends negative, and this is clearly seen at h5 on both the EPS and GEFS in the LR with heights building across Greenland into Baffin. We shall see if it materializes. The PNA trends neutral, and WPO/EPO positive. So it looks like while we lose the big coupled blocking ridge out west, we will see improvement in the NA, hopefully in the form of a legit -NAO (blocking ridge) towards the end of the month. I don't think the PAC is going to turn hostile- this looks to be more of a relaxation. Ofc time will tell, lol.

Well, looks like it's getting there...

29 here currently. Low temps should be realized early, then probably rise towards daybreak.

0z 12k NAM has 1-2" of snow for the eastern shore late Tuesday, maybe pushing 3 in S DE and down near SBY lol. Defo deserving of....

If the EPS is correct, we lose the big WPO ridge and the -EPO for a time, and with that we lose the mechanism for cross polar flow. I don't see a flood of Pacific air as much as the cold air source we have had being cut off for a time. There is still a PNA ridge out west in a favorable location, and we are seeing indications of ridging in the NA. Now if the PNA goes negative and we don't see positive heights continue building into the NAO space, then there will be a definite warm up, but not like that is entirely unexpected at this point. If the Pacific is going to "betray" us in the long term, we in trouble going forward any way you slice it.

Dude we are always playing with fire one way or another here south of 40N loI. I would take my chances with that look, esp given it looks like heights are building into the NAO domain.

Thats awesome!

Biggest trap game in modern NFL history. They just beat the unbeatable 8-0 Pats convincingly, and now face the 0-8 Bengals, with a (who the fucck is that) at QB. If they are truly a good team, they take care of business and win easily.

Looks a tad Nino-ish. I like the look up top, and the -heights over the Aleutians. Could be a really nice h5 pattern rolling this forward as we edge closer to Dec.

High of 42 here after a low of 23. 37 currently. Nice warm up tomorrow.

Hopefully that barely existent wave on the front ends up a bit more robust, and things fill in a bit. 1-2"?

Somebody give me a weenie like.

With no real trailing wave on the front, it looks like the usual cold chasing precip to me. Models do this a lot- show brief frozen on the tail end- and it is normally a total zero. Probably the best shot at seeing some flakes flying is with some instability snow showers as the legit cold moves in behind the front.

IIRC there was warming/significant disruption of the PV leading up to the early Dec storm, but not a SSWE. It resulted in a severely suppressed storm track due to southward displaced "daughter vortices" and some transient/bootleg ridging in the NAO domain.