CAPE

My bar remains low. I want my first 1" event. Even if Richmond-south is simultaneously working on their second foot.

The interaction between the NS vort and the SS works out pretty good this run. Not a classic phase but timed well enough as to not flatten the southern wave. This one is gonna be 'fun' to track over the coming days.

Its only one model run. I haven't seen that progression on any other runs, unless I am missing something. It could happen- we see that modeled from time to time(dropping the TPV that far south) but it doesn't often verify. In short, I wouldn't look for things to worry over. The upcoming pattern as depicted on the ens means looks great.

I refuse the dusting. Rejected!

Snippet from WPC EFD, fwiw.. By day 5 (Sun), models have trended a bit toward a more phased solution with a more amplified trough across the Ohio Valley/Appalachians and a somewhat less suppressed low track along the Eastern Seaboard relative to this time last night. At this time the GFS along with the CMC continue to show the farthest west low track along the Southeast/Mid-Atlantic coast on Sun, with the ECMWF and UKMET approximately 100 miles farther south/east. The GFS remains on the western fringe of the ensemble distribution, while the ECENS/GEFS/NAEFS ensemble means are much closer to something along the lines of the ECMWF/UKMET. Farther west, additional amplified energy approaches the West coast by Sun, with a trend a slower/deeper solution with this feature, or perhaps even cutting the system off west of California through early next week. Continued variability among solutions and the complex nature of the phasing process with the eastern system reduces confidence in any particular deterministic solution. Thus, from day 5 onward substantially increased weight was placed toward the ECENS and GEFS ensemble means. Cold air to the north of the system could result in areas if wintry precipitation across portions of the Mid-Mississippi Valley on Fri and across areas from the Ohio Valley to the southern/central Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic by Sat-Sun. The northern extent of winter weather potential Sat-Sun across the Mid-Atlantic region remains highly uncertain given the factors described above. As the system tracks northeastward in the Atlantic Ocean Sun-Mon, New England may face a threat for winter weather but this will again hinge largely on the eventual track of the system and how close it remains to the coastline.

Given the advertised look this is possible and I mentioned this as well. That said, its hard to imagine that every event is going to target the S MA/SE with a wicked cutoff. Weak Ninos tend to favor Miller B/hybrids, so given that, an active NS with a displaced TPV and strong blocking could also work out ok for us, and maybe screw NE more than usual.

I would gladly take a 1-2" event at this point. As bleak as things looked a week or so ago, the pre-15th period is bonus if it produces even something modest.

Better than a slap across the face

Well yeah. People can have whatever opinion they want, but it is a superior model.

Most likely NC to central VA will be heading towards 20" for the winter, before my yard sees it's first inch, lol. Patience.

My concern is the Euro/EPS. Holding steady with the flat, diffuse, strung out look.

It is the 6z GFS

Yeah that is a pretty big change in one run, even for this lead time.

NS energy is not as sharp/further east/out ahead of the SS short wave. No real interaction(phase) and the timing is such that it suppresses it.

That panel right there would be congrats SC. eta- more like Savannah, GA

The Control run is always entertaining. Its the op jacked up on steroids.

There is just no way that verifies.

Looks like I will have to charter a boat, head offshore 150 miles, and drop anchor for a month or so.

4 ft in NC, 3 in central VA. Still around 10" for you tho

This surely can only mean one thing..

It was fairly brief, but man it was stout. And west based IIRC. Bootleg to me is when there is a transient ridge that pops in the NAO domain but is not persistent at all. Kinda just moving through. If we see +height anomalies around GL or Davis Strait that persist for a week or more, I would say its an actual block.

We did have a legit -NAO in Jan 2016, but it was short lived. Good enough to get us a KU.

Remains to be seen but it looks a lot like 2009-10 to me.

It fits. And not like its out of nowhere. The weeklies have been very good/great for many runs now. Last 2 are in the epic category.

Please, tell us what is. Eh, Never mind.