CAPE

Yeah that would work.

Who did you parrot with this great info?

Yeah right? Who woulda thunk missing out on that event would have been such a big deal given the majority of predictions for the winter.

There are no absolutes. This is pretty complicated stuff. It makes some sense though. Go on Twitter and ask HM what he thinks.

Its clearly a combination of things. I think this almost has to be part of why the pattern seems to never progress as expected, despite the other indices supporting it. eta- the east has not been that warm overall, but a persistent SE ridge is problematic when it comes to storm tracks, as we know.

I see Carroll county hasn't changed much since I lived there lol. Ira T. Barnes ring a bell? Of course Caroline county is probably worse

We may have "solved" the mystery. Read instead of just looking at the pictures lol.

@psuhoffman Pretty similar-

I know but the ridge is more amped/higher height anomalies. I tend to look upstairs to compare to previous runs. Doesn't always work lol.

I'm still trying to figure out how the 12z Euro is slightly colder looking at h5

TNH? Maybe it is related... https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/teledoc/tnh.shtml https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/teledoc/tnh_map.shtml That map of the positive phase looks mighty familiar lol. eta- another image I found:

Maybe we start seeing it today 12z GFS op wants to drop the PV hammer for the beginning of March. GEFS seems to agree.

@psuhoffman

If I get another half inch of snow before it flips to rain I will leap into double digit snowfall territory! So there's that, lol.

The 'once threat' for today was the perfect way to score a decent snow event in this pattern, but it didn't happen. I never had much hope for this coming week. Could still work out for some, esp those who like ice, but not really feeling it after last night's runs and what I have seen today so far.

I always expect a crap ending when there is a deep trough out west and a bulging SE ridge lol. Based on yesterday's runs, I thought well maybe that big ass vortex could compress the flow, enhance the High and give us some real deal CAD that would hold as we got thumped with WAA precip. The thump has all but disappeared. Its pretty much falling apart today, as expected honestly. Up your way maybe you see a few inches of snow/sleet then some ice, somewhat like last week, but I am sure you are getting tired of that outcome lol.

We can never get any trend we need no matter what we need..its unreal actually We can when the pattern is favorable. This is the antithesis of favorable. As you might say- its a DISASTER.

Lol you ain't kidding. And I know this is a fail scenario for here 9 times out of 10, other than a quick inch of slop to rain. Not a single thing weather wise to track right now other than this crap though, and who knows, it could end up the 10% where a legit thump happens before the flip.

Not a big fan of the ICON for here this run. Not ICONIC.

Everyone is different. I have higher tolerance for the silly and whiny shit overall. I mostly ignore it. The "good ol days" of this forum are gone, so anyone that's clinging to that needs to move beyond it and accept its just different now. Everything changes.

I have no bar. I don't see the point. Sure I would like to see 3-4", but if it ends up another 1/2" that gets washed away by a deluge, better than nothing. This winter is clearly in dud territory for my location, so I am beyond being picky.

It will probably be back to a semi-epic look at 12z lol.

EPS was much less enthusiastic about a legit west-based block than the GEFS, but it did pretty consistently show weaker ridging further N/NE.

Its the same exercise. Mostly it showed epic NA blocking with an EPO ridge, which never came to fruition.

That vortex has to be a monster and ideally displaced to the sw of the 50-50 position for this to work imo. Without that anomalous feature, that is an absolute disaster of a long wave pattern for a MA winter storm lol.