CAPE

Lots of moving pieces. Very hectic run. That upper level energy above the lakes got pinched off between the ridge over Hudson and the ridge building northward over the Canadian Maritimes, and then it phases with the energy moving underneath from the central US. The blocking(such that it is) was just getting its act together, and if you look at the panels beyond this one, you can see that piece of energy pretty much moves ENE, with the ridging over the top also in motion moving up into GL. To recap- the pattern is not blocked up(yet) and the UL energy is not cutting up into a 'log jam'. And none of this matters because it is an op run and the next cycle will bear little resemblance to this progression lol.

Also a coupled PNA/EPO ridge.

Maybe. Yeah I know that hill too- It sticks out because there is nothing but flat all around it, esp driving up from the south. Now that I know about where he lives, that is a dead zone in many cases for snow. Not sure what the 'new' averages are, but going by the old NCDC 30 year avg for snowfall into the early 2000s, the annual avg snowfall for that area is about the same as for mine. Do you know where I can access the latest climo data? NCDC used to have a really cool searchable database to find climo data for cities/towns. eta- I found the data tools for 1981-2010 'normals', but it no longer has snowfall data. I recall being able to find annual avg snowfall for practically any town years ago.

Not to nitpick, but there are higher spots in N DE near the PA line. A few locations over 400 ft.

That's a nice spot, and I also like the areas around Canaan, and western MD. A bit too remote though. I really do like Vermont, NH, and Maine. I particularly like coastal Maine for its beauty and somewhat 'milder' climate, and still snows a lot.

Yes that may be the case. I didn't look at the 0z GEPS, but the op run was clearly getting the cold in earlier and favoring low pressure to our south/southeast late next week/weekend. I did live up there for 10 years until work required me to move to the nearly snowless lowlands. I did find a spot on the interior upper part of the peninsula away from the bays and removed from the immediate coast, so it isn't awful all of the time. A move north is likely in the near future. But not merely to the northern edge of the subtropics where you are, I am talking NORTH.

No shortage of trackable chances. Lets just hope one or 2 remain legit inside of 5 days.

You mean this? Lol I was just looking at it. Interesting, but not sure we would have enough cold air in place at that time.

I also like the EPS and even though verbatim it is a nice look for SNE next weekend, it is not far off at all from being a good outcome for our region.

It is a bit yes. That being said, this is occurring at the time of an *apparent* significant change in the pattern, and it is still a week out. There are likely going to be some changes. Absolutely would not be surprised if things are being rushed a bit, and nothing of consequence(frozen) happens next weekend.

6z GEFS looks good to me.

Its right. Gfs caved and was always bs How did it cave? It's but another op run, and the same idea is there. Still a snow-ice to rain deal. A bit less of a front end thump this time.

0z CMC has the arctic air dumping further south and east into the center of the country by next weekend, with some moderate cold bleeding south and east of that. Develops an initial wave that moves along the front with a rain/snow mix for our area, then as the colder air gets further entrenched on the east coast on Sunday, it develops a low along the coast to our SE and snows on NC and SE VA.

Yeah there are 4-5 big hitters in the mix. The 16th might be a bit soon but its still a week out so who knows. Seems the general improvement in the pattern is incrementally trending sooner on the guidance.

^ A trip to Canaan or Deep Creek looks like a good bet.

Not bad for the 18th - 25th of Jan window.

Yeah I guess I must have missed that one.

Pretty consistent signal for that time frame for a frozen/mixy precip event. Could be fun times a bit sooner than we all thought. Minus Merksy ofc.

Agreed. Its winter. I want winter weather.

At least there will still be cutters when a sw amps to our west with that +NAO, so not totally dry.

Yeah it has the look of a tendency towards that overall. I will be in chase mode until the very end of the month. Mountains, or with that look maybe a coastal scraper will take me back to the beach.

Some respectable cold right here.

Yeah that is a really decent h5 look. Nice to continually see the ops spit out these chances, and sooner than we all thought a few days ago.

Interesting. Snow/ice to rain look.

Yeah they changed about 4 years ago I think. Players wanted it. Remember the string of lower leg/knee injuries the Ravens went through over a 2-3 year period? It was uncanny.