CAPE

66 here. Went for a quick 2.5 mile hike earlier when it was 68 in a short sleeve shirt and felt warm.

All Purple. Lets do it.

I'm going to message DT and ask if this is meteorologically possible.

The general look is ok, but verbatim we would be fighting cold/dry, and any wave that amps would tend to take a NW track without perfect timing. Might be a decent pattern for several smaller events.

For the Ravens game, rain may not be much of an issue(maybe later in the game), but wind will be a factor. Gusts up to 30 mph.

I prefer the squirrel-acorn correlation.

Even here March has probably been the best winter month in recent years. I was just trying to depress a few people and maybe send some window shoppers to the Panic resort and conference center. I am on the payroll, although I haven't received any checks yet. In the mail I'm sure.

Euro is not nearly as cold, and we have the well known GFS bias of being too cold in the LR. Still a ways to go.

Yes it has evolved to something a bit different on the means. Not surprising, and not necessarily bad. See Showme's post above. Given where I live, my interest continues to lie primarily from 20th and forward. eta- I will keep an eye on next weekend, because if it looks like a decent event in the nearby highlands, I am in chase mode.

The ridiculous Spring-like warmth this morning got me thinking- in less than 2 months actual Spring will be on the doorstep.

I agree with this in general. We typically don't see significant winter events at the front end of a major pattern change. That said, it is still showing up on guidance, and I could see the usual places getting a mixy storm. Almost never happens on the coastal plain.

Yeah there is a chance we could see a more sustained block, but it has been a long time since that occurred during winter. As some of us were discussing yesterday, if the EPO ridge is going to be a prominent feature, we will have a persistent cold air source, so some periodic/well timed transient ridging in the NAO space could work as it would provide a mechanism to inhibit a bigger storm from cutting. Overall it's hard not to get a bit excited with what the guidance has been advertising lately. Looks like we have to get through 5 days or so of Spring and then things get rolling.

6z GEFS is a weenie run from late next weekend onward.

Different model lol. GEFS also builds heights during that time frame, but not as impressive and more transient than the EPS. By day 15 they both end up with pretty much the same look- big EPO ridge with a neutral NAO on the EPS, more positive on the GEFS.

EPS is now building some pretty significant +heights into the NAO domain in 10 days. The whole look up to is impressive on this panel. It's fairly transient, and a few days beyond this the EPO ridge becomes very impressive, with the NAO looking more neutral. Cold look down the line. Hopefully not dry.

Your best post here ever, by far!

Always liked this one from Yes, among many others.

Pretty much anything but country for me.

You're good. Sometimes you can "know too much". We both teach for a living, so you know what I mean lol.

Not sure about this. I thought the EPS was showing small signs on the Pac side(trending towards a neutral PNA), and made several posts about it. Showme and Chill were seeing signs as well. I felt we could be back into a pretty favorable pattern beyond the 20th. That looks to be on track at this juncture. Lets see how it evolves/how long it lasts. We simply cannot know.

Yeah there are many great ones. I love early progressive rock bands- Rush and Yes are 2 of my favorites. Also a big Tool fan, which is harder, but still prog.

There are always "issues" when it comes to snow chances in the MA, outside of the highlands. Once in a while it all comes together though, and it's magic.

Based on recent history, this is probably the best we can hope for. If the -EPO is legit and sustained, the AO wont be super positive, so if we can get some well timed bootleg negative NAO periods, there will be a chance or 2 at a bigger storm that doesn't cut.

Yeah Limelight is up there for me too.

Getting back to Rush, probably my 2 fav songs of theirs are Red Barchetta, and Tom Sawyer.