CAPE
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Everything posted by CAPE
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At least we have a few days of cold and dry upcoming. Decent chance the outer banks will have more snow than the majority in this sub-forum by mid week.
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Some returns popping on radar overhead here as the weak part of the line approaches. Maybe some micro forcing...hoping for 30 seconds of pixie dust.
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Southern end of it looks impressive on radar. Maybe Cambridge to Salisbury will get a surprise. Sure looks pathetic for my yard, as usual lol.
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I ended up with 3" from that. Fun deal. Back in the days when my yard could actually maximize on an event. Been a while.
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I will be in Lancaster but not until Sunday. I may do a mini chase tomorrow.
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27/9 Be nice to crack an inch for the winter (LOL). A half inch would do it, but my forecast was downgraded to "little or no accumulation" I really am moving.
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Latest EPS forecast could very well be "wrong". Thing is, I simply made a post stating what it is currently depicting, and that it wasn't good. Never claimed it was going to verify. No hitching of wagons. Now straighten your panties- they be all bunched up.
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C'mon. A met as experienced as murky knows the CFS nails these indices far more often than the EPS. CFS is literally a model of consistency. Almost always verifies. Hardly ever vacillates.
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No need. He is a pompous azz and he isn't fooling anyone here. LOL 30 year met.
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Might not work out. Who is doing the hitching here? Apparently you love the advertised EPS h5 look- at least enough to troll PSU.
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Latest EPS MJO forecast in the LR- after briefly getting into phase 7, wave dies out then looks to re-emerge in phase 5/6. That wont help much.
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You claim you are a met right? Then you understand climo. NE doesn't need all the stars aligned to get a good result.
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Check this out. Good overall presentation on NAM/ENSO/NAO and solar activity, and specifically addresses the solar/NAO correlation. Probably not what many would expect over the long term. http://www.issibern.ch/teams/interplanetarydisturb/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/Asikainen_03_2014.pdf
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-(-NAO)
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Despair has descended upon the snow starved weenie masses in earnest.
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It's not the dry air- that could actually help if the front end precip came in hot and heavy. If the best lift is delayed(or mostly north), the strong warming aloft/retreating cold air mass means time is not on your side.
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This was a fun thread that evolved from some goofy thread Tenmen started. Was back when we still had cold, active winters- I think it was 2013-14, but could have been the following winter. I bumped it a couple years ago but not much interest. Despair had taken root and become the source of poetic creativity.
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Shall we bring back the epic poetry thread?
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Looking at h5, the trough is just a tad flatter, and the downstream ridge is slightly less amped. Seems to be the difference this run, and allows a bit more of a thump further south. Maybe a mini trend as game time approaches?
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I took a peek this morning and the GEFS and EPS both have the AO trending towards neutral, and the NAO going slightly negative. Nothing is locked in up top though, and no signs of a sustained -AO or -NAO. Look at h5 on the 6z GEFS at the end, and the TPV is over Baffin with a ++NAO look.
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12z GEFS yesterday had an impressive signal for snow for the 25th-30th period. Since then it has deteriorated significantly. The general pattern being advertised is pretty decent overall, but there are little "flaws" showing that shift around between model cycles.
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All these maps do is remind me that I live 150 miles too far south for snow 90% of the time.
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There is stuff growing in my yard...in mid Jan. <45 days until met Spring!
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Schreck et al.
