CAPE

More like stagnant, under a massive upper ridge lol. Not dry here, even though it hasn't rained for a week. Long nights, low sun.

Mid 70s is kinda gross for this time of year. I will probably sweat and get bit by a random mosquito while blowing/mulching leaves.

36 here this morning with some scattered frost.

Yes it will be. I stated this a few times itt, and just my opinion- our best hope for occasional cold air intrusions probably lies with the orientation/ placement of the EPAC ridge. Hopefully ridging can establish towards the EPO domain for a time. Maybe we see a few transient -NAO episodes, but given the run of +AO/NAO winters we are on, and other factors that aren't necessarily favorable, it's difficult to be optimistic about the development of persistent HL blocking this winter.

The TPV is much more influential on sensible weather. We can go an entire winter with little to no connection between the SPV and the TPV. I think sometimes it is forgotten that these 2 features are entirely separate entities. Probably not likely to see a sustained -AO if the SPV is unperturbed, but it certainly does not preclude blocking episodes and cold air outbreaks. We had plenty of "visits" from pieces of the TPV during the winter of 2013-14, and it had everything to do with the sustained -EPO/WPO, and little to nothing to do with the state of the SPV.

One more chilly day then we enter what looks like a long stretch of upper 60s- low 70s. A tad warm but at least it looks dry.

Temps rose after midnight here. WAA FTL. 43.

Monday edition of Euro Weeklies is out. Freebie h5 panel for Nov 30- Dec 7:

40 here after a high of 47. Wind and some branches down but no loss of power here today.

An inch or 2. Nice. You will see what it means to actually "get smoked" later though.

It just seems endless.

Sunny here now. 54 degrees. Changeable day lol.

0.78" I think it has ended.

0.53" here so far. Shouldn't be too much more. Back edge moving east pretty quickly.

Looks like the rain is ending in Baltimore just before gametime.

Pouring. Looks like this will move through fairly quickly at least.

BWI: 10.7 DCA: 7.9 IAD: 9.5 RIC: 4.5 SBY: 4.2

Mount Holly has had heavy rain wording in the forecast for here since yesterday. I'm thrilled.

35 when I went to bed. 46 now. Looks like rain by late morning.

The November edition of the CanSIPS is out. Pretty meh overall, but not as bad as last month. Typical boilerplate Nina look with little to no help in the AO/NAO domain. December and March have the "better" h5 looks. Positive temp anomalies throughout.

Been tracking this for awhile on the extended GEFS and EPS weeklies for mid to late Nov. Good to see it showing up on recent op and ens runs now that they are in range. The look on the12z run today would probably suppress the storm track so far south we would miss all the cold rain.

In theory, without considering other factors, it would be "better". We really want the forcing to be a bit further west/further east though.

Not much group think here. Might lean towards weenie think lol, but overall I think we have a pretty nice exchange of information and independent/objective contributions wrt possible outcomes for the upcoming winter. I read the CWG article that included your general thoughts, so please expand on those itt.

Yeah we had a 'snow drought' until the cold powder event at the end of the month ( a fav of mine) but it was hardly a torch lol.

The only concern in my mind is if the SPV remains strong and begins to couple with the troposphere and eventually we end up with sustained lower heights down toward the surface. If that sort of thing happens in the Fall it can become a fixture for winter.