CAPE
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It is impossible to resolve the minor details associated with how a specific storm will evolve and progress at this range. All we can do is identify the major components of the pattern and determine that the potential is there. It can be the most favorable pattern ever seen on paper and still produce no snow. The advertised h5 pattern is much more of a Nino look btw.
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Fwiw, the latest extended GEFS keeps the same general h5 look, and gets below normal temps into central Canada around mid December. There is a relaxation of the PNA ridge around that time, but then the +PNA reemerges(axis a tad further west) and the EPO goes negative (around xmas). The NA is generally serviceable throughout.
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Yeah probably here too, but nothing I had to drive in so not as memorable.
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I remember one legit one, when I lived in Carroll county. Strong cold front with heavy snow squalls(and thunder) where it melted on the roads for like the first 5-10 mins as temps crashed.
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Mount Holly has rain/snow showers in the forecast for Monday night, and mentions flash freeze potential in their discussion.
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Looks good at the end of the GEFS run today. Nice amplitude too- poking up over AK.
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A perfect track bowling ball with cold air aloft and strong lift might get it done. The proverbial 'creator of its own cold air!' storm.
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GEFS has it further east. Marginal airmass outside of elevated areas though. Probably not likely next week will produce for the majority of the MA. Its going to take some time, assuming the AK trough does weaken/retro, to get some legit cold air on our doorstep.
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..and it will probably be gone at 18z.
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12z GFS has a legit snowstorm for the western highlands early next week
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lol The advertised pattern does hold some potential for somewhere, probably the mountains at our latitude. Most likely it wont be cold enough for the lowlands, but something like a closed low taking a southern track can get it done.
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Another day of speculation. Lets roll!
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Surprised you didn't get it. I know I'm a terrible poet, but still..
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Latest extended GEFS gets really meh beyond the first week in Dec. Pacific puke galore. In early Dec, we better score!
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Spammed with maps have we been?
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Better than atmospheric memory. We really need it to forget.
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lol he is so awful.
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The NAO 'goes like +2' every winter. Not interesting. Now a -2 otoh..
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So you are predicting a neutral-slightly negative NAO overall for the winter months?
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That is one impressively large area of "warm" 2m temp anomalies. Not sure I would pay much attention to that 4-6 weeks out. Advertised h5 height anomalies are probably marginally better at that range, but still plenty of uncertainty.
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Pretty decent fwiw. I tend to take a peak at the week beyond D15, just to see how things look. All low skill at that range ofc. Latest Euro weeklies are meh, at least from what I can glean from the really bad h5 graphics on the freebie site. Probably similar enough to the GEFS for the first week or so of Dec, but has at least some weak ridging in the east.
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QBO phase influences the strength of the SPV. The impacts it has on the stratosphere do not necessarily couple down to the troposphere. The TPV and SPV are distinctly separate entities.
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Here we go. This is our chance to thread a needle. (Please disregard surface temps)
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That new line along the bay died out apparently, and then another one got going SE of here. Nothing noteworthy, just 0.14" of rain and a few gusts of maybe 40.
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It's coming for your yard.
