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CAPE

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Everything posted by CAPE

  1. CAPE
    Pretty cool stuff but the mountains all look like the fortress of solitude.
  2. CAPE
    Yea I notice eps got pretty cold last night toward mid feb Verbatim it looks like a very workable gradient pattern for the MA. Problem is it's in the LR and these decent looks tend to morph into something less favorable as we move closer to reality when we are stuck in an overall crap pattern.
  3. CAPE
    Of course they did. Every time we needed one more good trend it the exact opposite way This should probably be the expectation given the Pacific is garbage and we have a raging +AO/NAO. That being said, we have the law of averages on our side, it's February, and the advertised pattern, while pretty awful, is not a complete shutout look.
  4. CAPE
    Yeah more weather we love to track but perpetually fail at lol.
  5. CAPE
    Epic west-based -NAO on the way.
  6. CAPE
    I'll take my chances every single time though.
  7. CAPE
    Yep. About right.
  8. CAPE
    Got plenty of that! And 38 and showers sounds about right for us lowlanders. Looking at the EURO, it looks like things come together for a decent duration of good lift over DE and esp southern NJ. Don't think temps will cooperate though.
  9. CAPE
    Not sure about rates. Will have to fall heavily for a decent duration to overcome LL temps, and ofc the warm, soggy soil.
  10. CAPE
    No happy ending tho.
  11. CAPE
    We lost our MJO outlook expert. Whatabout the CFS?
  12. CAPE
    Weeklies have very limited use imo. Probably ok for taking a quick look at week 3 to see how the pattern may evolve based on the advertised D15 look.
  13. CAPE
    I concur. When there is an established base state for winter, and we see a continuation of that look in the LR on all major globals, I tend to believe the general idea is more right than wrong though.
  14. CAPE
    Gotcha. Op runs do what op runs do from run to run at range lol.
  15. CAPE
    Trending the "wrong way" means warmer/lack of snow. That generally happens more often as the guidance corrects(trends) as lead times shorten because that is the reality of our climo. When there is an established favorable pattern with persistence, that is when they tend to trend "better" with time. We have the opposite of that this winter.
  16. CAPE
    Always looked to me like a transient ridge moving through the NA on the means. I never saw any indications of a legit block developing.
  17. CAPE
    It doesn't always, and there is no El Nino presently. ENSO is neutral, and MJO is driving the tropical forcing bus.
  18. CAPE
    Generally agree. I posted pretty much the same thing yesterday. We could survive a +AO and do decently with snowfall, but not with a hostile PAC. The EPO ridge has been oft advertised, but not materialized since Nov. +PNA has been fleeting at best. A sustained +AO = death to snow chances here without other indices in favorable phases to somewhat mitigate it.
  19. CAPE
    lol this is my default mode every winter. I am damn well aware of where I live.
  20. CAPE
    I find it generally snows here when the h5 pattern is favorable. Doesn't mean super cold, and 2009-10 might be a bad example (high standard) but in this context it works. When the key features are in the right places and phases, marginal 37 degree temps leading into an event end up 25 and snow. We are at the other end of the spectrum this winter. 37 ends up 50 and rain with a high sliding off the coast and a storm tracking to the NW.
  21. CAPE
    It's uncanny. Until proven otherwise, we are in complete fail mode for frozen here, with no end in sight.
  22. CAPE
    The looks we are getting on the ops and ens now are pure ugliness. ++AO/+NAO, -PNA, 50-50 highs, failed attempt after failed attempt to build an EPO ridge...expect every outcome to be the exact inverse of what you want and you wont be disappointed. Then if something good happens, against all odds, you will be ecstatic.
  23. CAPE
    Decent winter day today. 24 this morning, 37 now. With the mid cloud deck, I could almost imagine a bit of snow moving in...back to the real world. It will dip below freezing tonight, but beyond that, he may be right. Pretty damn mild for the next week or so.
  24. CAPE
    You are one thick headed dude. Hopefully PSU will stop engaging you. What a waste of his time.
  25. CAPE
    No worries with that. Only relevant when it snows.
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